Perceptions and Reality Coming Together Current Outlook for Nuclear Renaissance - One Man’s View-

1. Perceptions and Reality Coming TogetherCurrent Outlook for Nuclear Renaissance-One Man’s View- James S. TulenkoPresident, ANSEastern Washington Local Section Richland. WashingtonFebruary 22, 2005

2. The American Nuclear Society The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Science and Technology to Benefit Humanity

3. ANS on the Move Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Total Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Bottom Line: Students are Growing after years of decline.

4. ANS Goals • To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology. • To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange. • To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information. • To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.

5. Energy – Man’s Basic Need • Energy is needed to meet man’s subsistence requirements as well as to meet the demands of economic growth and development. Per Capita consumption of energy is a measure of the physical quality of life. The production of Energy creates environmental impacts ranging from local to global in nature.

6. Prosperity Requires Energy 100 Japan USA France United Kingdom 10 Mexico South Korea El Salvador Poland GDP Per Capita ($1000/Person) Russia 1 Burkina Faso Bangladesh China 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Energy Consumption Per Capita (106 Btu/Person)

7. How Do We Get Our Energy • Coal • Gas • Oil • Nuclear • Hydro

8. World Primary Energy

9. Growth in Total U.S. Fuel Consumption

11. Growth in Fuels Used to Generate Electricity

13. No New U.S. Plants since ‘77 The Nuclear Community has continued to push for building new nuclear plants. Recently the US became hostage to high prices and short supplies of foreign oil. Moreover, the world is generating too much CO2 for the environment. Global warming is upon us! Perception or Reality?

14. Global Warming Nay-sayers • “The direct heating effect of carbon dioxide has been overestimated.” • “Soil and vegetation are taking up carbon dioxide at an increasing rate to compensate.” • “Computer predictions and projections are wrong!”

15. Global Warming Predictors • 1998 = the 20th consecutive year the Earth's surface was warmer than its long-term average (from 1961 to 1990). • Beginning in the 1950s, the use of CFCs and other ozone depleters increased by ~ 10% per year. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane (25%), nitrous oxide and ozone. Fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also greenhouse gases, but come from industry.

18. Earth’s Climate is Changing • The increase in temperature during the 20th century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1000 years. Estimated Change in Northern Hemisphere Temperature Since 1000 AD

19. Long-Term Development of the Climate (Ref: Marland et al, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003 and Keeling et al, Atmospheric CO2 Record: A Compendium of Data, ORNL, 2004)

20. More Global Warming Predictors • 20th century use of oil and fossil fuels upped atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gas CO2 by 30%. Industry introduced 70,000 synthetic chemicals to the environment. • Ground-level temperature measurements show the earth has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C in the last century. • The 2nd Assessment Report of the Intergov. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."

21. Interesting Factoids • On balance, Natural Gas contributes to the Greenhouse Effect equal to or greater than Coal. • Natural Gas is methane, 25 times more destructive as a greenhouse gas than CO2. A minimum of 4% is lost in transmission, making Natural Gas releases equivalent to Coal.

23. World oil production will peak in the next decade, earlier than many international forecasts, a senior BP executive claims. BP exploration consultant Francis Harper estimates the world's total original usable oil resources -- the amount of oil before drilling began -- at about 2.4 tn barrels of oil. This is considerably less than the 3 tn assumed by bullish commentators, e.g., the US gov.'s Geological Survey. BP analysis points to oil production peaking between 2010 and 2020. BP Says Oil Supply To Peak Sooner Than We Think

24. BP Says Oil Supply To Peak Sooner Than We Think (2) • Harper’s comments are a rare entry by a global oil company into the debate on the life of world oil supplies. If true, it would mean demand outstripping supply earlier than projections by ExxonMobil and Shell. (BP does not officially give projections.) • The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to continue to rise until 2030, and assumes production will rise to meet demand.

25. Fossil Fuel Supplies • Western World must reduce their dependence on oil • Limit influence on foreign policy • Reduce cost to economy of oil price shocks • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Prepare for inevitable resource depletion • Husband oil for other uses • Reducing oil use is not a solution to terrorism but it may help

26. The Hydrogen Economy • Using coal to generate power to produce hydrogen for automobile fuel cells would result in 3X the current CO2 production using gasoline. From “Ending the Energy Stalemate” - 12/04

27. Prominent Environmentalist “I’ve always said we should use nuclear power more. It’s the one decent thing we can do as citizens of this earth. If we don’t use it in a portfolio of energy sources, I think we are in desperate trouble.” Author and environmentalist James Lovelock

28. Nuclear’s Superior Safety Record 4.70 5.00 4.70 4.20 4.30 4.20 4.00 3.95 4.00 Per 200,000 Worker Hours 3.00 Industrial Accident Safety Rate (IASR): 2.00 # 1.10 0.90 1.00 0.80 0.80 Accidents 0.70 0.62 0.60 0.77 0.64 0.26 0.46 0.45 0.29 0.34 0.00 1992 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 US Manufacturing IASR US Finance, Insurance, Real Estate IASR US Nuclear IASR* #Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours *Full- time, on- site employees Sources: WANO and BLS

29. The Anti's are Defecting In 2004, Prime Minister Tony Blair proposed a new generation of Nuclear Power Plants for Britain, to confront the problem of climate control. Hugh Montefiore, a former Anglican bishop and longtime trustee of Friends of the Earth, wrote in the British Journal The Tablet, "I have now come to the conclusion that the solution (global warming) is to make more use of nuclear energy." When Montefiore told fellow trustees that the planned to speak out, they made him resign.

30. “Experts” Want More Plants • Opinion Leaders • Politicians • Environmentalists - more & more • Media (Leaning) • Scientists • Engineers, Professionals

31. What is Needed What is requested by Utilities and the Nuclear Industry: • Government guarantee of construction loans for new, untested reactor designs. • Tax credit allowing 20% deduction of the spending on new reactors. • Production credit of 1.8 cents for every kilowatt hour of power produced by the new plants – same as currently exists for windpower.

32. Recent News Flash HOUSTON (Dow Jones) -- Overall U.S. natural gas production fell 3.5% last year, Lehman Bros. said in a survey of 59 U.S. gas producers. For 2004, Lehman forecasts as much as a 5% supply drop in U.S. production, no change in 2005, followed by 1% declines in the next three years to 2008. Canadian production fell about 1.6% and overall North American production fell just under 1% in the 4th quarter of 2004 versus the third quarter. 4th qtr. 2004 LNG imports rose almost 100 mmcf/d vs. the same qtr. last yr. to make up for domestic shortfalls.

33. Public Approves of More Plants AGREE DISAGREE Nuclear Energy Insight Dec. 2004

34. Doomsday Movie Helps "The Day After Tomorrow” brought a multi-million-dollar PR campaign offering the movie was not fiction, but cinema verite –a realistic warning of what could happen if we don't dismantle our modern economy to stave off global warming. The National Center for Public Policy Research

35. "Nukes are Back" This quote from Forbes January 31, 2005 tells it all: "The U.S. Nuclear construction industry was presumed dead. It is anything but. If oil prices stay high, if people worry about carbon dioxide causing global warming, if the Middle East stays violent, nuclear power stands a good chance of making a comeback in this country."

36. Our Time is NOW • Finally, the so-called experts, public and media are coming to see the benefits of Nuclear power. • More are agreeing with the Nuclear Industy that more plants are needed. • We have an opportunity to make good things happen for our industry, and for earth.

37. Plants Under Construction

38. Path to Sustainable Energy Future • Enormous untapped energy resources (fossil, nuclear and renewables) are not uniformly distributed! • All energy use causes some pollution. • Nuclear proliferation is a concern. • Financing (capital and risk) is an issue. • Waste Disposal remains a challenge. • The energy debate has geopolitical impacts.

39. Sustainable Energy Path There is not one path. All technical options need to be developed.

40. The Future “The optimist thinks that this is the best of all possible worlds, and the pessimist knows it is.” J. Robert Oppenheimer

41. The Future “In science, credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” Charles Darwin