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Modeling Health Care Reform: What States Need to Know

Modeling Health Care Reform: What States Need to Know. Amy Lischko Assistant Commissioner, DHCFP Massachusetts. Today’s presentation. Goals/purpose of MA analysis Questions Data Partners Sample output Challenges. Goals of Analysis.

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Modeling Health Care Reform: What States Need to Know

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  1. Modeling Health Care Reform: What States Need to Know Amy Lischko Assistant Commissioner, DHCFP Massachusetts Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  2. Today’s presentation • Goals/purpose of MA analysis • Questions • Data • Partners • Sample output • Challenges Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  3. Goals of Analysis • To analyze comprehensive models for increasing access to health insurance in Massachusetts by estimating: • Costs • State and Federal • Other • Movements (including crowd-out) • Participation rates • Revenue estimates Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  4. Questions • What options do you want to evaluate? • Comprehensive vs. incremental • What data are available? • State, Federal, other • What output do you require? Who is your audience? • Does the work require outside expertise? • How much can you do yourself? • credibility Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  5. Data • State • Individual Data (age, insurance status, employment, income, family status, health status) • Employer Data (average price of plan, % contribution, offer by size) • Insurance Market (price of various plans in each market, benefit coverage) • Medicaid and other public program cost data Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  6. Data • Federal • CPS (adjusted for missing income data) • MEPS (validated employer data) • Other • Behavioral responses from literature • Massachusetts-specific behavioral responses Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  7. Partners • Other agency staff • Actuaries (Mercer, Lewin) • price alternative health insurance plans • Economist (J. Gruber) • modeling Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  8. Actuary output Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  9. Econometric Model Output Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  10. Challenges • Data • Missing values become very important • Never used data for policy-making purposes per se, gaps in understanding was more apparent • You know your state better than national experts, check carefully and ask lots of questions! • Assumptions • Modeling is an art not a science, make sure you’re involved and know what assumptions are being made. • National responses from the literature may not always be pertinent to your state, again, question assumptions! Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

  11. A Few Final Words • We had a lot of our own data so it was easier to manage this process than if you’re using federal data sets that you don’t know very well • Once you have a model, lots of interest to use it • Own your model. We don’t have staff trained to use it, costs more money to manipulate it. Modeling Workshop, November 10, 2004

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