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Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region

Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region. Cooperative Forecasting Group April 5, 2005. Mark D. Goldstein. Maryland Department of Planning. Components of Reconciliation. Population by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and Sex Jobs by Place of Work

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Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region

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  1. Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Cooperative Forecasting Group April 5, 2005 Mark D. Goldstein Maryland Department of Planning

  2. Components of Reconciliation • Population by Age and Sex • Labor Force by Age and Sex • Jobs by Place of Work • Net Commutation

  3. What Was Used • Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions • MDP population by age distributions for MD jurisdictions • VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. • MDP projected LFPRs by age • Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base for all jurisdictions

  4. Population Change, Wash COG Region, Actual and RND 7 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and local planning offices

  5. Population Change in the WashCog Region by Major Age Cohorts, 2000 - 2030 Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  6. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data

  7. Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the Wash COG Region by Age, 2000 - 2030 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

  8. LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  9. LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  10. Projected Total Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  11. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Washington Cog Region, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  12. Reconciliation Process • Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratio • To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totals

  13. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Washington, D.C., 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  14. Net Commutation for Washington, D.C. An increase of 65,100 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  15. Net Commutation Rate for Washington D.C., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  16. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Arlington Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  17. Net Commutation for Arlington Co. An increase of 36,650 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  18. Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  19. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Alexandria City, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  20. Net Commutation for Alexandria City An increase of 16,450 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  21. Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria City, 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  22. Net Commutation for Central Jurisdictions An increase of 118,250 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  23. Net Commutation Rate for Central Jurisdictions Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  24. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Montgomery Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  25. Net Commutation for Montgomery Co. A 42,600 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  26. Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  27. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince George’s Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  28. Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co. A 123,650 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  29. Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  30. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Fairfax Co, 2000-2030* * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  31. Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.* An increase of 92,150 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

  32. Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  33. Net Commutation for Inner Suburbs A 258,350 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  34. Net Commutation Rate for the Inner Suburbs, 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  35. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Loudoun Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  36. Net Commutation for Loudoun Co. An increase of 48,150 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  37. Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  38. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince William Co, 2000-2030* * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  39. Net Commutation for Prince William Co.* An increase of 31,900 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  40. Net Commutation Rate for Prince William Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  41. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Calvert Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  42. Net Commutation for Calvert Co. A modest increase in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  43. Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  44. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Charles Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  45. Net Commutation for Charles Co. An increase of 25,200 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  46. Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  47. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Frederick Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

  48. Net Commutation for Frederick Co. A decrease of 4,400 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

  49. Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co., 2000-2030 * • = net commutation divided by resident workforce • Source: Maryland Department of Planning

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