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March 10, 2015

Presented by John B. Jung Jr. Senior Managing Director, BB&T Capital Markets. Fort Myers, FL. March 10, 2015. Important Disclosures.

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March 10, 2015

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  1. Presented by John B. Jung Jr. Senior Managing Director, BB&T Capital Markets Fort Myers, FL March 10, 2015

  2. Important Disclosures BB&T Capital Markets is a division of BB&T Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. BB&T Securities, LLC, is a wholly-owned, nonbank subsidiary of BB&T Corporation. Securities and insurance products or annuities sold, offered or recommended are not a deposit, not FDIC insured, not guaranteed by a bank, not insured by any federal government agency and may lose value. The information contained herein, while not guaranteed by BB&T Capital Markets, has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate. This material is not to be considered an offer or solicitation regarding the sale of any security. Discussions of past performance do not imply a guarantee of future results. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. BB&T Securities and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. The opinions expressed are solely those of John B. Jung, Jr. and do not represent the opinions of BB&T Capital Markets or BB&T Securities. This material is presented for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Investment products offered through BB&T Investment Services, Inc. are:NOT A DEPOSIT   NOT FDIC INSURED        NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY   MAY GO DOWN IN VALUE    NOT GUARANTEED BY A BANK     Member FINRA, Member SIPC.    

  3. “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” - Albert Einstein

  4. Goal Number One: Long-Term Growth in the Standard of Living Long-Term Real Growth in U.S. GDP Per Capita (1860-2012) Fiscal Crisis 2007 2013 2006 2000 2009 Internet Stock Bubble 1987 Stock Crash 1973 Arab Oil Embargo 1982 1968 1944 1929 Stock Crash 1936 1916 1906 Persian Gulf War War in Afghanistan Iraq War Financial Crisis Spanish- American War Korean War Great Depression WWI Roaring 20s WWII Vietnam War Source: Measuring Worth

  5. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability – same system since 1789

  6. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography – no wars on U.S soil since 1865

  7. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land – we can feed ourselves and much of the world

  8. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land Raw Materials – iron ore and lumber and limestone and …..

  9. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land Raw Materials Energy Costs – shale play a game changer

  10. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land Raw Materials Energy Costs Transportation Infrastructure – highways, airports, ports, rivers, railroads

  11. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land Raw Materials Energy Costs Transportation Infrastructure Education – everybody wants to go to college in the U.S.

  12. U.S. Competitive Advantages Government Stability Geography Arable Land Raw Materials Energy Costs Transportation Infrastructure Education Work Ethic / Productivity – Puritan or not, we have it (and it is quantifiable)

  13. United States Labor Productivity is up almost 50% in the last twenty years – driven by technology and process improvement • The United States Worker is the most productive worker in the world U. S. Global Competitiveness U.S. Labor Productivity Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics

  14. Competing in the Global Marketplace • North American “Global Powerhouse” • Energized by NAFTA • Trade / Immigration / Education • 25%of global GDP • China (third largest global trading partner) • Globally competitive • Massive infrastructure needs / Misplaced stimulus? • Latin America (second largest global trading partner) • Abundant arable land and raw materials • Held back by government instability? • European Union (largest global trading partner) • Historical center of commerce and trade • Sovereign financial difficulties / uneven work ethic

  15. Key Measures of the US Economy • Earnings growth in the last decade has outpaced growth in the S&P 500 index; resulting in a lower price to earnings ratio. • Much of the growth in earnings is tied to the growth in the global economy. • Stock market performance is a big driver of consumer confidence. S&P 500 and S&P Corporate Earnings (EPS) Source: FactSet, data as of January 1, 2015

  16. Key Measures of the US Economy • Consumer confidence has trended up since the all-time low in February 2009 and consumer spending continues to recover. U.S. Consumer Confidence/Spending Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 16

  17. Key Measures of the US Economy • Although the U.S. has lost nearly 8 million factory jobs (40% of total) since manufacturing employment peaked in mid-1979, the U.S. remains the No. 1 manufacturing country in the world, doubling output since 1979and currently out-producing No. 2 China by 25% • Since 2010 the United States has added 650,000+ manufacturing jobs Industrial Production Industrial Production – measure of physical output in factories, mines and utilities Source: US Federal Reserve - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report 17

  18. “History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” - Mark Twain

  19. Old versus New Economies Old (Pre-Great Recession) Economy (1946 – 2007) • New (Post-Great Recession) Economy (2008 - ?) 1. Rising Asset Prices 1. Stabilizing Asset Prices 4. Reduced Leverage 2. Increasing Risk Premium 4. Increased Leverage 2. Declining Risk Premium 3. Aggressive Investing 3. Need for Liquidity • Strong Growth • Low Unemployment – Low Inflation • Aggressive Consumer Spending • Limited Growth • High Unemployment – Deflation • Slower Consumer Spending

  20. The effects of the Great Recession Percentage Change in Economic Indicators Following Recession What is normal? Is this the new normal? Average, 3 Years After The Start of Recession (1) Current Cycle (7 years from the end of 2007) 2009 - 2014 were the five largest deficits in modern history, totaling $6.3 trillion (8% of GDP on average); the above draws into question the value of stimulus spending. • Covers eight recession cycles going back to 1950 (does not include the truncated 1980 recession) Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff, U.S. Census, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury 20

  21. “New Economy” Characteristics – Large Public Deficits and Debt Total U.S. Government Outlays as a % of GDP Outlays Average Outlays, 1950-2015E Source: US Treasury, Congressional Budget Office

  22. “New Economy” Characteristics – Large Public Deficits and Debt Total U.S. Government Outlays and Revenues as a % of GDP Outlays Average Outlays, 1950-2015E Average Revenues, 1950-2015E Revenues Source: US Treasury, Congressional Budget Office

  23. “New Economy” Characteristics – Large Public Deficits and Debt • Since the 1950’s we have borrowed on average 2.3% of GDP • In the first four years of the current administration we averaged 8.7% of GDP. • In 2014, the deficit declined to 2.8% of GDP, the lowest since 2005 • This is the only period post WWII when we have broken out of the range on both outlays and revenues Average net borrowing as a % of GDP Outlays Average Outlays, 1950-2013 1950 – 2015E Average Net Borrowing as a % of GDP: 2.3% Average Revenues, 1950-2013 Revenues Source: US Treasury, Congressional Budget Office

  24. “New Economy” Characteristics – Large Public Deficits and Debt Total U.S. Government Expenditures and Debt Source: US Treasury, Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Office of Management and Budget

  25. “New Economy” Characteristics – Consumer De-Leveraging U.S. Household Debt as a Percent of GDP The Great Recession The Great Depression Source: U.S. Census, U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds. Shading represents National Bureau of Economic Research Recessionary Periods

  26. “New Economy” Characteristics - Employment • Workforce participation is at a 35 year low – 62.7%. 2014 workforce much different in makeup than in 1978 • 7 to 9 million jobs below anticipated employment – reflected in consumer confidence and governmental revenues Total U.S. Employment – Since 1949 Total U.S. Employment – Since 2000 Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics; FactSet, Associated Press

  27. “New Economy” Characteristics – Median Household Income and Housing Prices Real U.S. Median Household Income Case-Shiller Home Price Index • At the bottom of the housing market we saw $6 trillion worth of housing value destruction • Housing prices are recovering but remain nationwide about 20% below the 2006 peak • Median Household income flat for 25 years – symptom or the cure? Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, Financial Times, NY Times

  28. “In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing…The worst thing you can do is nothing.” - Theodore Roosevelt

  29. How much of a role should the Federal Government play in the economy? • Housing - FHA / Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac • Healthcare – Medicare / Medicaid / ACA • Education – Student Loans • Regulatory climate – Dodd-Frank / Sarbanes-Oxley / EPA / OSHA / NLRB • Interest rates – ZIRP • The companies and organizations and governments who reacted rationally to the “New Normal” are already the winners - if the financial system is sound and the capitalist system is allowed to work (compete!) we will continue to recover and grow.

  30. “The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise, rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression.” - Sir John Harvey-Jones

  31. Planning to Grow / Planning to Compete • Tax Code Reform • Cost of complexity / Uncertainty over rates • Highest marginal corporate tax rates • Special interest provisions (housing /charities / municipal bonds) • Regulatory Overhaul / Exit of Private Enterprises • The regulatory burden and cost to our economy is significant and growing • Government involvement in private enterprises is anti-competitive • If the future of our economy is competing globally, we have to compete globally. • Fiscal Responsibility • Do we have the political will to address spending / which by definition includes entitlements and defense • Are we positioned to continue to compete globally unless we continue to invest in education and technology and infrastructure – thereby spurring growth

  32. “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them” - Albert Einstein

  33. Innovation is essential - especially if it’s disciplined and focused on competitive growth Compete and Grow

  34. Innovation is essential • Compromise is paramount – my way or the highway is not an option, compromise must lead to competitive growth Compete and Grow

  35. Innovation is essential • Compromise is paramount • Establish clearly defined objectives - $20.7 trillion in the war on poverty / 15% poverty level for the last 50 years / have we created opportunity? Compete and Grow

  36. Innovation is essential • Compromise is paramount • Establish clearly defined objectives • Get it right the first time – as time goes by our opportunities to be wrong diminish, as do our chances to lead the competitive growth of the world economy Compete and Grow

  37. Innovation is essential • Compromise is paramount • Establish clearly defined objectives • Get it right the first time • Focus on Growth and Competing – nothing else is relevant Compete and Grow

  38. “Men (or Women) make history, and not the other way around. In periods where there is no leadership, society stands still. Progress occurs when courageous, skillful leaders seize the opportunity to change things (for the better).” - Harry S Truman

  39. Success starts here.

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