Sources for Economic Data

1. Sources for Economic Data Planning 720 Planning Methods Michele Hayslett Data Services Librarian michele_hayslett@unc.edu

2. A Few Definitions Issues to Watch Out For Data Sources Time for Questions What We’ll Cover

3. Demographics Employment Unemployment Labor Force Earnings / Payroll Occupation Industry What data are out there? Remember govt agencies collect info for their own particular mission (not yours) Great example of differentiation chart at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htm, “Summary of Major Differences between QCEW, BED, and CES Employment Measures.” All three use UI data but in different ways and for different purposesRemember govt agencies collect info for their own particular mission (not yours) Great example of differentiation chart at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htm, “Summary of Major Differences between QCEW, BED, and CES Employment Measures.” All three use UI data but in different ways and for different purposes

4. Sources of employment and wage data County level (and MSA) By Place of Work Today we’ll look at:

5. By Place of Residence By Place of Work A Couple of Definitions Place of residence – generally gathered by surveying individuals; survey sent to and/or enumerator visits their home Place of work – generally gathered by surveying companies; survey sent to establishmentPlace of residence – generally gathered by surveying individuals; survey sent to and/or enumerator visits their home Place of work – generally gathered by surveying companies; survey sent to establishment

6. By Place of Residence 65,610E people living in Orange Co. are employed (source: LAUS/BLS) By Place of Work There are 61,506 jobs filled (i.e., employed persons) in Orange Co. (source: QCEW/BEA) Orange County, NC2007 Employment Residence data says nothing about where they work (unless the survey specifically asks that) Likewise, work data says nothing about where they live unless the data is connected to place of residence data. Multiple job holders example – when asking a person about employment, he/she might tell you they’re holding two jobs, but you would know it’s this one person holding two jobs. From an employer’s perspective, though, they can only report for their own establishment. So if someone’s holding two jobs at different establishments, that person is going to be reported twice. **More: scroll down.** From documentation of the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (BLS) which combines data from a household survey with administrative data from unemployment claims: “The unemployed total from the household survey includes all persons who did not have a job during the reference week, were currently available for a job, and were looking for work or were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off, whether or not they were eligible for unemployment insurance. Figures on unemployment insurance claims, prepared by the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor, exclude, in addition to otherwise eligible persons who do not file claims for benefits, persons who have exhausted their benefit rights, persons who have been disqualified from receiving benefits, new workers who have not earned rights to unemployment insurance, and persons losing jobs not covered by unemployment insurance systems (some workers in agriculture, domestic services, and religious organizations, and self employed and unpaid family workers).” Differences Between Data Series: Household vs. Unemployment Insurance, http://www.bls.gov/lau/lauhvse.htm. Residence data says nothing about where they work (unless the survey specifically asks that) Likewise, work data says nothing about where they live unless the data is connected to place of residence data. Multiple job holders example – when asking a person about employment, he/she might tell you they’re holding two jobs, but you would know it’s this one person holding two jobs. From an employer’s perspective, though, they can only report for their own establishment. So if someone’s holding two jobs at different establishments, that person is going to be reported twice. **More: scroll down.** From documentation of the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (BLS) which combines data from a household survey with administrative data from unemployment claims: “The unemployed total from the household survey includes all persons who did not have a job during the reference week, were currently available for a job, and were looking for work or were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off, whether or not they were eligible for unemployment insurance. Figures on unemployment insurance claims, prepared by the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor, exclude, in addition to otherwise eligible persons who do not file claims for benefits, persons who have exhausted their benefit rights, persons who have been disqualified from receiving benefits, new workers who have not earned rights to unemployment insurance, and persons losing jobs not covered by unemployment insurance systems (some workers in agriculture, domestic services, and religious organizations, and self employed and unpaid family workers).” Differences Between Data Series: Household vs. Unemployment Insurance, http://www.bls.gov/lau/lauhvse.htm.

7. Footnote E : Reflects revised inputs, reestimation, and new statewide controls. What’s that you’re seeing?

8. Answers Economic Questions Like: How many people living in the study area are employed? Is the labor force growing? What are the demographics of the labor force, the educational level? How many households have a total income between $X and $X? How many people are unemployed?*** Place of Residence Data

9. Use the technical documentation! Those who are “‘marginally attached to the labor force’—wanted [to] and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months…were not counted as unemployed because they had not actively searched for work in the past 4 weeks.” [emphasis added] Changes over time, even in same survey Comparisons between data from different surveys not valid What are you not seeing? Ranks of Discouraged Workers and Others Marginally Attached to the Labor Force Rise During Recession, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils74.pdf. Also, definitions are tricky things – different agencies may have different definitions of, say, “labor force” – be sure to read the technical documentation!!! DON’T compare data from different surveys—probably would be comparing apples to oranges b/c of differences in methodology if nothing else.Ranks of Discouraged Workers and Others Marginally Attached to the Labor Force Rise During Recession, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils74.pdf. Also, definitions are tricky things – different agencies may have different definitions of, say, “labor force” – be sure to read the technical documentation!!! DON’T compare data from different surveys—probably would be comparing apples to oranges b/c of differences in methodology if nothing else.

10. Answers Questions Like: How many jobs exist in the study area? In which industries? Which sectors are growing fastest? Are the new jobs low- or high-paying? What’s the average wage of new versus long-time employees in a given industry? Place of Work Data “For most economic census sectors and programs, all large- and medium-size firms and all multi-establishment firms were sent report forms to be completed for each of their establishments and returned to the Census Bureau…For most sectors and programs, report forms were also mailed to a sample of small employers. These include single-establishment firms with payroll below a specified cutoff. This cutoff varies by economic census sector, industry and geography. However, for most very small firms, data from existing administrative records of other federal agencies were used instead. These records provide basic information for the business, including data on sales, payroll, number of employees, legal form of organization and other statistics.” Sources of the Data, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012092.html.“For most economic census sectors and programs, all large- and medium-size firms and all multi-establishment firms were sent report forms to be completed for each of their establishments and returned to the Census Bureau…For most sectors and programs, report forms were also mailed to a sample of small employers. These include single-establishment firms with payroll below a specified cutoff. This cutoff varies by economic census sector, industry and geography. However, for most very small firms, data from existing administrative records of other federal agencies were used instead. These records provide basic information for the business, including data on sales, payroll, number of employees, legal form of organization and other statistics.” Sources of the Data, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012092.html.

11. Establishment “An establishment is a single physical location at which business is conducted or services or industrial operations are performed. It is not necessarily identical with a company or enterprise, which may consist of one or more establishments.” - Census One More Definition “A company operating at more than one location is required to file a separate report for each location or establishment. Companies engaged in distinctly different lines of activity at one location are requested to submit separate reports, if the business records permit such a separation and if the activities are substantial in size. “ Basis of Reporting, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012090.html.“A company operating at more than one location is required to file a separate report for each location or establishment. Companies engaged in distinctly different lines of activity at one location are requested to submit separate reports, if the business records permit such a separation and if the activities are substantial in size. “ Basis of Reporting, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012090.html.

12. Geographies Harder to find small geographies (sub-county) in place-of-work data Fewer businesses than people so more confidentiality issues

13. Disclosure Some data suppressed completely Some data reported in ranges Often reported for county but not MSA (or vice versa) MSA definitions Industry classification SIC & NAICS Irritating Issues

14. SIC = Standard Industrial Classification 1930s – 1997 with some revisions 10 Divisions NAICS = North American Industry Classification System 1997 -> but with significant revisions in 2002 & 2007 20 Sectors Hierarchical Code Irritating Issues – SIC & NAICS

16. Many industries are comparable but not easily Sectors are not directly comparable NAICS / SIC table Crosswalks (“concordances”) So, there are breaks in time series for all the sources we will look at Irritating Issues – SIC & NAICS Although SIC and NAICS both have hierarchical structures they are quite differentAlthough SIC and NAICS both have hierarchical structures they are quite different

17. NAICS Main page http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html 2002 NAICS look up http://www.census.gov/epcd/naics02/naicod02.htm NAICS 97 and SIC Correspondence table http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naicstab.htm NAICS 97 and SIC Bridge table http://www.census.gov/epcd/ec97brdg/ For More on SIC & NAICS:

18. Table CA25: Total full-time & part-time employment by industry sector. Annual averages. Broadest coverage: Includes wage and salary jobs, proprietors, farm, non-farm, private, government, military. Regional Economic Accounts (aka REIS) - BEA

19. Sources: State and federal unemployment insurance data, Dept. of Defense, Dept. of Agriculture, Railroad Retirement Board, IRS Regional Economic Accounts (aka REIS) - BEA

20. Very easy to see employment by sector for several decades: 1969 - 2005 http://www.bea.gov/bea/regional/reis/default.cfm CD-ROM for 2001 has 1999 MSA definitions: EDOCS: C59.24:969-2001/CD N.G. for Miami and Hartford Regional Economic Accounts (aka REIS) - BEA

21. Might be tempted to use this because of its variables Number of employees, establishments, total wages, average weekly wage, average annual pay, by industry. However, TD states these data “are not designed as a time series” Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (BLS) QCEW data are not designed as a time series. Concepts and Methodology, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htmQCEW data are not designed as a time series. Concepts and Methodology, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.tn.htm

22. Excludes: the military, self-employed, proprietors, domestic workers, unpaid family workers, and railroad workers. Includes farm workers but not farm owners. Source: State and federal unemployment insurance data 1997-2006 Web-based extraction Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (BLS)

23. Track a more detailed industry Location quotient calculator – determine specialization But disclosure issue http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (BLS)

24. Current Employment Statistics (BLS) Official time series for employment change measures Monthly nonfarm payroll estimates for: all employees, production workers, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings (constant dollar and current dollar), average weekly earnings, average overtime, index of aggregate hours and payrolls, and diffusion indexes National, state and MSA Source: sample survey, ~400,000 establ’s Place-of-work data – uses UI admin data as sampling frame Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any workers who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking worker who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment…Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period or who have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. What is the CES definition of employment?, http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm Place-of-work data – uses UI admin data as sampling frame Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any workers who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking worker who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment…Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period or who have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. What is the CES definition of employment?, http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm

25. Current Employment Statistics (BLS) Excludes agriculture, private households, and self-employed workers but covers other employment, including railroads, religious organizations, and other non-UI-covered jobs 1939 – 2009 available in web interface: http://www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any workers who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking worker who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment…Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period or who have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. What is the CES definition of employment?, http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any workers who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking worker who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment…Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period or who have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. What is the CES definition of employment?, http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm

26. Longitudinal subset of QCEW Primary Uses: Business cycle data Analysis of employer dynamics underlying economic expansions and contractions Analysis of employment expansion and by size of firm Links each new UI quarter to longitudinal database of gross job gains and gross job losses, expansions, openings, contractions and closings Starts from UI universe but also excludes government and private households 1992 forward available thru Web-based extraction Business Employment Dynamics (BLS) federal-state cooperative program; all 50 states participate.federal-state cooperative program; all 50 states participate.

27. Wage & Salary Mid-March employment, number of establishments by employment size class, annual payroll, by industry Excludes self-employed, employees of private households, railroad employees, agricultural production employees, and most government employees Source: primarily administrative records County Business Patterns(Census) The comparability of data over time may be affected by definitional changes in establishments, activity status, and industrial classifications. For more details on these changes, see the “Comparability With Other Data” section below. PURPOSES AND USES OF THE COUNTY BUSINESS PATTERNS, http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/intro.htm The comparability of data over time may be affected by definitional changes in establishments, activity status, and industrial classifications. For more details on these changes, see the “Comparability With Other Data” section below. PURPOSES AND USES OF THE COUNTY BUSINESS PATTERNS, http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/intro.htm

28. Another view of specialization Tracking low pay jobs But disclosure issue County Business Patterns(Census) For 2007, the County Business Patterns has adopted the Noise Infusion method of data protection. Noise infusion is a method of disclosure avoidance in which values for each establishment are perturbed prior to table creation by applying a random noise multiplier to the magnitude data (i.e., characteristics such as first-quarter payroll, annual payroll, and number of employees) for each company. Disclosure protection is accomplished in a manner that results in a relatively small change in the vast majority of cell values. For the 2007 County Business Patterns, each published cell value has an associated noise flag, indicating the relative amount of distortion in the cell value resulting from the perturbation of the data for the contributors to the cell. The flag for ‘low noise’ (G) indicates the cell value was changed by less than 2 percent with the application of noise, and the flag for ‘moderate noise’ (H) indicates the value was changed by 2 percent or more but less than 5 percent. Cells that have been changed by 5 percent or more are suppressed from the published tables. Additionally, other cells in the table may be suppressed for additional protection from disclosure or because the quality of the data does not meet publication standards. Though some of these suppressed cells may be derived by subtraction, the results are not official and may differ substantially from the true estimate. Noise Infusion, http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/intro.htm. For 2007, the County Business Patterns has adopted the Noise Infusion method of data protection. Noise infusion is a method of disclosure avoidance in which values for each establishment are perturbed prior to table creation by applying a random noise multiplier to the magnitude data (i.e., characteristics such as first-quarter payroll, annual payroll, and number of employees) for each company. Disclosure protection is accomplished in a manner that results in a relatively small change in the vast majority of cell values. For the 2007 County Business Patterns, each published cell value has an associated noise flag, indicating the relative amount of distortion in the cell value resulting from the perturbation of the data for the contributors to the cell. The flag for ‘low noise’ (G) indicates the cell value was changed by less than 2 percent with the application of noise, and the flag for ‘moderate noise’ (H) indicates the value was changed by 2 percent or more but less than 5 percent. Cells that have been changed by 5 percent or more are suppressed from the published tables. Additionally, other cells in the table may be suppressed for additional protection from disclosure or because the quality of the data does not meet publication standards. Though some of these suppressed cells may be derived by subtraction, the results are not official and may differ substantially from the true estimate. Noise Infusion, http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/intro.htm.

29. CBP Main Page http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/cbpview.html Web interface 1994 – 1997 SIC; 1998 -2005 NAICS American Factfinder http://www.factfinder.census.gov 2004-2005 only, but very easy to see detailed industry Use quick reports for 1 county or msa For multiple counties use CBP: GAS: County Business Patterns: 2005 and “filter rows” (drop down near top) County Business Patterns(Census) History to 1964; irregularly to 1946History to 1964; irregularly to 1946

30. CBP via State of the Cities Data System http://socds.huduser.org/CBPSE/CBPSE_Home.htm? Has CBP by SIC estimates for 1992-2002 By MSA - 1999 MSA definitions Good for browsing low pay jobs County Business Patterns(Census)

31. NAICS 452 - General merchandise stores NAICS 445 - Food and beverage stores NAICS 623 - Nursing and residential care facilities NAICS 448 - Clothing and accessories stores NAICS 721 – Accommodation NAICS 722 - Food services and drinking places Some Low Paying Industries by NAICS:

32. SIC 5300 General Merchandise Stores SIC 5400 Food Stores SIC 5600 Apparel and accessory stores SIC 5800 Eating and Drinking Places SIC 7000 Hotels and Other Lodging Places SIC 8300 Social Services Some Low Paying Industries by SIC:

33. Economic Census Every five years, in years ending in 2 and 7 Special sections on minority- and women-owned businesses (suppression will be an issue) 2007 – first use of Census Designated Places (CDPs) with 5,000 or more inhabitants or 5,000 or more workers (previously smallest geography was counties)

34. Local Employment Dynamics – QWI http://lehd-test1.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html Incomplete, but great data if study area is included Varies by state which geographies presented (cos/MSAs) and MSAs change definition Non-Employer Statistics Mostly self-employed http://www.census.gov/epcd/nonemployer/ More! LED is a state-Federal partnership. States send their local data to the Census Bureau where it gets combined with Federal data (mostly Census). So it’s a combination of place of residence and place of work data—in the database you’ll choose which orientation you want. Not all 50 states participate yet, though, and some states choose to release only MSA-level (not county) data (including North Carolina). “All data for firms with no paid employees during the year (also known as “nonemployers”) were obtained from administrative records of other federal agencies. Data for nonemployers are not included in the reports from the economic census but are released in the annual Nonemployer Statistics series.” Sources of the Data, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012092.html.LED is a state-Federal partnership. States send their local data to the Census Bureau where it gets combined with Federal data (mostly Census). So it’s a combination of place of residence and place of work data—in the database you’ll choose which orientation you want. Not all 50 states participate yet, though, and some states choose to release only MSA-level (not county) data (including North Carolina). “All data for firms with no paid employees during the year (also known as “nonemployers”) were obtained from administrative records of other federal agencies. Data for nonemployers are not included in the reports from the economic census but are released in the annual Nonemployer Statistics series.” Sources of the Data, http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/012092.html.