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Systems Modeling and Oil Forecasting

Systems Modeling and Oil Forecasting. A heuristic model is a method of solving a problem for which no algorithm exists. Heuristic knowledge is crucial for oil forecasting, where there are physical constraints and theoretical limits.

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Systems Modeling and Oil Forecasting

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  1. Systems Modeling and Oil Forecasting • A heuristic model is a method of solving a problem for which no algorithm exists. • Heuristic knowledge is crucial for oil forecasting, where there are physical constraints and theoretical limits. • Incorporating these factors into a model, such as with the Stella modeling software used in GC1, we can better predict when the oil production peak will occur.

  2. Systems Modeling and Oil Forecasting • This graph, produced by the output from the model in the last slide, displays N. American cumulative oil production, forecasted to the year 2040. • The peak in this graph occurs in the year 2007, indicating a leveling off followed by a steep decline. • This program is run annually with updated data in order to estimate world peak production as part of the World Oil Forecasting Program. Model credits: R.C. Duncan and W.L. Youngquist

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