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Today:

Evaluating electoral systems. Types of electoral systems

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Today:

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    1. Today: Electoral systems overview Centripetalism in Papua New Guinea: Alternative Vote vs. Plurality

    2. Evaluating electoral systems Types of electoral systems & effects: (i) Outcomes: majoritarian vs. proportional (ii) Incentives: conflict vs. bargaining & cross-group appeals (Reilly: Preferential voting systems cross-group appeals)

    3. What is an electoral system? How votes are translated into seats: Votes Electoral system: Seats

    4. Three major types/families of electoral systems Majoritarian Proportional Mixed

    5. Electoral systems: two features District magnitude (M): # of representatives elected in one district Formula: the specific mechanism translating votes into seats

    6. Majority/plurality systems District magnitude: M = 1 Formula: plurality/FPTP (India, U.S., U.K.) majority-runoff (most of Frances former colonies, parts of former Soviet Union) alternative vote (Papua New Guinea, Australia)

    7. How does it work? M (district magnitude) = 1 Winner-takes-all Plurality (first-past-the-post): more votes than any other candidate Majority-runoff: - 50% + 1 of the total votes - otherwise, runoff between two top vote-getters

    8. Alternative Vote: M = 1 Voters rank candidates: 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice If no candidate has more than 50% of first preferences, candidate w least votes eliminated Second preferences counted And so on, until we have a winner (more than 50% of the vote)

    9. Example: USA 2000 Bush, Gore, Buchanan Gore 48%, Bush 47%, Buchanan 5% Buchanan is eliminated; his second choices counted 80% for Bush (4% of total), and 20% for Gore (1% of total) New count: Bush 51%, Gore 49% Bush wins

    10. Discussion/assessment: Majoritarian systems: who wins? Gerrymandering Proportional representation: Alabama Paradox

    11. FPTP: strengths & weaknesses Strength: its capacity to deliver a majority government Weakness: no guarantee of turning a plurality/majority of votes into a majority of seats E.g., NZ 1978-81 (maybe USA 2000?)

    13. Advantage of plurality? Plurality is a giant conjuring trick, pulling the rabbit of majority government out of the hat of a divided society

    14. Criticism: From a New Zealand perspective, advocacy of the plurality method based on its ability to better dismiss unpopular governments makes a good joke Pluralitys side effect: Gerrymandering

    16. Proportional systems: District magnitude: 1 < M = S (assembly size) Formula: party list PR (Israel, most of Europe, Latin America, Southern Africa) STV (Single Transferable Vote: Ireland, Malta)

    17. How do they work? M (district magnitude) > 1 Proportional representation: voters vote for a party (not a candidate); # of seats # of votes Single Transferable Vote: - very similar to the Alternative Vote (single- vs. multi-member districts)

    18. Limiting proportionality in PR Two ways: EITHER lowering district magnitude (e.g., Chile, M = 2) OR raising the threshold (e.g., Turkey = 10%)

    19. Maximizing proportionality: Neither of the above: BOTH high district magnitude (M = S; Netherlands M = S = 150) AND very low threshold (Italy 1946 0.15)

    20. Side note: Alabama Paradox Q: proportional representation in the US? A: apportionment of seats in the House Some unexpected and counter-intuitive results (Alabama paradox, population paradox, new states paradox)

    21. Choosing an electoral system Typical/mainstream thinking: Two goals: (i) Proportionality: accurate/fair representation (ii) Efficiency: choosing a government (a government that can govern) [(iii) Third goal? Encouraging cooperation?]

    22. Tradeoffs: Ideally, we would like to have the cake and eat it, too: maximize both representation and efficiency Hard to achieve in practice: one tends to come at the expense of the other Prioritize and choose accordingly

    23. Two types of electoral formulas (i) favor proportionality? Choose proportional representation (ii) favor efficiency/governability? Choose a majoritarian system

    24. Duvergers Law Electoral systems ? Party systems Law: Correlation between FPTP and two-party systems Why? Two effects of electoral systems: mechanical effect Psychological effect

    25. Mechanical effect refers to what electoral systems actually do Psychological effect refers to how voters react to the working of the electoral system Duverger: an institutional analysis: Electoral system ? Party system

    26. Sociological approach (Rokkan): Duverger got the story backwards: Electoral system ? Party system

    27. Papua New Guinea An extraordinarily fragmented country (culturally) No common history of statehood Hundreds of often mutually antipathetic groups 4 million people, 840 distinct languages (1/4 of the languages spoken in the whole world)

    28. A natural experiment The effects of various electoral systems Alternative Vote (1964, 1968, 1972) Gains independence in 1975; switch to plurality (FPTP) Effects of AV vs. FPTP?

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