1 / 18

The Cuban Missile Crisis

This overview discusses Operation Nadir, the reasons for missiles in Cuba, the American blockade, the withdrawal of Soviet missiles, and three conceptual frameworks for analyzing foreign policy.

ffrye
Download Presentation

The Cuban Missile Crisis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Cuban Missile Crisis March 4, 2014

  2. Overview • Operation Nadir • Why missiles in: four hypotheses • Why American blockade • Why withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba • Analytic epilogue: three conceptual frameworks for analysing foreign policy

  3. Operation Anadyr • 1959, first arms shipments from USSR to Cuba. Further military assistance provided in 1962 • By September 1962, Soviet arms in Cuba included: • Surface-to-air missiles • Coastal defence ‘Sopka’ cruise missiles • Patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles • Over 5,000 Soviet technicians and military personnel

  4. September 8, 1962 - Soviet nuclear ballistic missiles (medium-range) arrive in Cuba, followed by nuclear warheads and nuclear bombs. • The shipping, unloading and delivery of the missiles to the construction site in Cuba not detected by US, until their deployment in the field.

  5. Missile range map

  6. October 14 1962- a U-2 plane flew over the areas where missiles were deployed, followed by further U-2 flights on October 15 and 17. • U.S. President Kennedy and his advisors were informed of the build-up in Cuba. • Soviet air defences had observed the over flights but had taken no action on 14 October. They presumably observed flights on 15 and 17 October as well.

  7. Why missiles in: four hypotheses President Kennedy and his senior advisors considered the following hypotheses for the build-up in Cuba: • Hypothesis 1: Cuban defence • Hypothesis 2: Cold war politics • Hypothesis 3: Missile power • Hypothesis 4: Berlin - win, trade or trap

  8. 1) Cuban Defence • US has made it clear it wants Castro out & previously supported military action against Cuba • Bay of Pigs Invasion (April, 1961) • However, missiles not the only way to deter invasion • Risk increasing likelihood of invasion

  9. 2) Cold War Politics • Idea that USSR putting missiles that close to US would show it’s dominance • Make US allies in Americas lose confidence • Problem: could have picked easier method and in better location

  10. 3) Missile power • In 1962 US had fairly significant advantage over USSR in size of long range nuclear arsenal • Moving missiles closer to US would help • Problem- not clear why problem was so urgent at that point that USSR felt need to take such a risky approach

  11. 4) Berlin- win, trade or trap • Berlin as real motive of USSR • Move to place missiles in Cuba part of larger effort to force US out of Berlin • Kennedy worried whatever US response to Cuba, USSR would use on Berlin

  12. Why the American blockade? • Avoid nuclear exchange with Soviet Union and convey to the world that it is not frightened to pursue its objectives. • October 22 1962, President Kennedy declared a ‘strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba’. • The American blockade began on 24 October 1962.

  13. Why the withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba? • Exchange of correspondence • USSR- to remove missiles • US- pledge not to invade Cuba • Remove missiles from Turkey at later date • October 28, Soviets announce withdrawal the missiles from Cuba.

  14. Rational Actor model focuses on the goals and objectives of the government. Organizational Behaviour model focuses on the existing organizations and their standard operating procedures for (1) acquiring information, (2) defining feasible options, and (3) implementing programme. Governmental Politics model focuses on the politics inside a government. 3 conceptual frameworks for analyzing foreign policy

  15. Rational actor model • See government as unitary actor • Seek to understand state’s goals & objectives • Identify options for addressing problem and costs & benefits of each • Use this analysis to identify best option based on above info

  16. Organizational behaviour model • Seek to identify the organizations that make up the government • Look at standard operating procedures (SOPs) of these organizations • Examine constraints and capabilities these SOPs put on ability to produce 1) information, 2) options and 3) implement choices • Identify the organizations with biggest state in outcome chosen

  17. Governmental politics model • Government action as result of bargaining between various players inside the government • Seek to identify the various players, the factors that shape their perceptions & preferences and their impact on the choice • Identify the ‘action channel’ • Identify players with greatest stake in outcome

  18. Conclusions • Three models together provide insight into various aspects of the crisis and offer more complete explanation • Taken together, demonstrate how easily the crisis could have turned out differently

More Related