The role of models in supporting river basin management

1. The role of models in supporting river basin management Michiel Blind Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment/RIZA

2. Contents • Who am I? The projects I am involved in • The role of models (ref: abstract) • The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper) • Open research questions • Links to other topics • Technological perspectives • EU

3. Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 1: HarmonIT (FP5) - • HarmonIT develops a model linkage interface standard: OpenMI • Speeds up linking models to form integrated systems • Allows selecting linking the best tools • Allows re-use of generic tools • Makes research in linkage and scaling possible • Presentation Roger Moore

4. Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 2: HarmonRiB (FP5) - • HarmonRiB researches • Integrated uncertainty assessment of data/model systems, including socio-economics • HarmoniRiB creates • A virtual laboratory for modelling studies, in which as many data as possible are available, including associated uncertainties

5. Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 3: Harmoni-CA (FP5) – Harmoni-CA will produce GUIDANCE AND METHODOLOGIES based on SUPPORT AND CONSENSUS achieved by involving science, policy and stakeholders synthesising available knowledge establishing broad dialogues and tuning projects

6. Harmoni-CA Objectives • create a forum for communication, information exchange and harmonisation of ICT-tools for integrated river basin management • support framework for harmonised tools, incl. guidance • stimulate proper development and use of tools

7. Organisational structure WP1: Establishment of a communication forum / Harmoni-CA management WP3: Guidance documents for river basin modelling WP4: Joint use of monitoring and modelling WP2: Toolbox WP6: Co-ordination ongoing / future RTD-activities WP5: Integrated assessment and the science-policy interface

8. CatchMod is not exclusive World Wide Initiatives MULINO & Other EU research National Initiatives The (FP5) CatchMod cluster: co-ordinated development and implementation of tools for the WFD Formal CatchMod Clime Harmoni- RiB TransCat Harmoni- QuA EuroHarp Harmoni- -CA Harmon- IT BMW Harmoni- CoP Tizsa River Temp- QSim

9. Harmoni-CA activities this year • September 16-17 • Technical workshops • Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling! • November 4-5 • Harmoni-CA Forum • “harmonise river basin management tools and knowlegde for the implementation of the water framework directive.”

10. The role of models (ref: abstract) A Classification (of many) • Short term operational • Low uncertainty • Mid term planning, management and immediate problem solving • Relatively uncertain • long term: long-term scenario analysis • High Uncertainty

11. The role of models II The role of models very much depends on • Availability and quality of data • Complexity and spatial scale of the problem • Political urgency and involvement • Moment within the planning cycle • Level of (public) participation • … The models may be used in a quantitative or more qualitative fashion, for supporting dialogue or making actual decisions

12. This requires a planning process The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper) • WFD requires selecting an appropriate set of measures, with pre-requisite to be: • broadly supported (Stakeholder participation) • cost effective • effectively reach a ‘good ecological status’

13. Interaction & communication Information: Data & Modelling Planning process (e.g. WFD) Quality assurance Selection of building blocks Start Data system building THE WFD TOOL? Problem definition Tuning the system Application Solution Adaptation Implementation Collaborative planning processin integrated river basin management Problems DIFFERENT ...eco-zones ...issues ...users ...preferences ...languages ...ambitions .... NOT FLEXIBLE NOT INTERACTIVE

14. Primary ICT & Modelling problem“Flexibility” • Since… • WFD system needs to provide information to all stakeholders on time for the planning process • System may drastically change due to new insights & needs during the process (stakeholder demands!) • It is required that… • Linkages of information sources need to be standardized ⇒ IT interface for models and databases! Architecture! • HarmonIT project develops OpenMI, the open modelling interface & architecture

15. “Secondary” problems If you have flexibility, the possibilities increase and related problems are: • Selection of sets of models to link • Overview and access to models • Overview and access to model data • Software and data quality assurance • (Meta-) data standards • Common data-models • Quality assurance and consistency guidelines • Methods for communicating with the non-specialist

16. Gaps which need to be filled in, or a currently being filled in by various CatchMod projects!Limited to model related issues • Selection of sets of models to link • Overview and access to models • Overview and access to model data • Software and data quality assurance • (Meta-) data standards • Common data-models • Quality assurance and consistency guidelines • Methods for communicating to the non-specialist • Consistent view on proper scenario-development • The consistent integrated use of all types of (foresight) models for long term scenario analysis • Pan European to global network for information and tools for scenario development!

17. Links to other topics • Modelling and information systems are becoming more and more important in solving complex, international or global problems. • Modelling environments should be seen as infrastructure, which need to be maintained and developed irrespective of the actual topic • A key feature must be that development of dedicated (research or policy) topical systems keeps up with scientific ideas and policy development (policy cycle). • CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics

18. Technological perspectivessupporting solving the Global Water Crisis • HarmonIT ⇒ presentation Roger Moore • CatchMod & modelling in general • Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may help • To achieve consensus on the problems, resulting in global (political) awareness and acceptance (e.g. IPCC) • To select cost-effective sets of measures • To embed knowledge • But be aware • Political acceptance of modelling appears to be decreasing (for many reasons), • Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may lead to ignorance!

19. 5th ministerial conferenceEnvironment of Europe - Declaration • Information from (modelling) systems is vital for a common understanding and feeds preferably into a (international) dialogue-decide-deliver management process (as opposed to a decide – announce – defend process!) [par 14 and many others] • Socio-economic integration improves cross-boundary negotiation possibilities [par. 19, 37-41] • CatchMod = par 20 (environmental information) • Integrated modelling supports sustainable water management in general, especially when effects of different solution strategies have been captured in models (par 50-52) • Dedicated interactive modelling/information systems can play an important part in education and public awareness (par 58) • …

20. EU water initiative • 2.1: Improve co-ordination and co-operation • Models & information improve dialogue • 2.1: Increase the efficiency of existing aid flows • Models & information allow efficiency assessments of plans • 3.2 & 3.3: Models & information improve dialogue thus support co-operation in general • Language problems in tools need to be solved • CatchMod should spread it’s wings (NIS etc)!

21. Harmoni-CA activities this year • September 16-17 • Technical workshops • Advancing project interactions in Catchment Modelling! • Registration has started • www.harmoni-ca.info