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Research Methods in the Social Sciences, Lecture 3

PS 235 Lecture Notes Spring 2010 Clayton Thyne Based on Frankfort-Nachmias & Nachmias, Chapter 3. Research Methods in the Social Sciences, Lecture 3. Intro.

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Research Methods in the Social Sciences, Lecture 3

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  1. PS 235 Lecture Notes Spring 2010 Clayton Thyne Based on Frankfort-Nachmias & Nachmias, Chapter 3 Research Methods in the Social Sciences, Lecture 3

  2. Intro • We recall from Ch.1 that social science is validated by (1) reason and (2) experience…or (1) the conceptual/theoretical and (2) the observational/empirical • Chapter 2 focused on #1: reason/theory • This chapter focuses on how you can go about testing your theory

  3. Research problems • We recall that scientific research must be empirically verifiable • This requires that we are specific about our hypothesized relationships • Scientific? • How can we best promote democracy? • How does state wealth impact the likelihood of coups? • Would McCain have reduced troops in Iraq? • Should I support the health care bill?

  4. Units of analysis • Def – the most elementary part of what is to be studied • 1st step in testing your theory • Helps avoid.. • Ecological fallacy – generalizing from groups to individuals • Individualist fallacy –generalizing from individuals to groups Group A Group B We love democracy! Nope. 80% got 40 20% got 95 51% got 45 49% got 55 Mean = 51 Mean = 49.9 Mode = 51 Mode = 40

  5. Hypotheses • Your theory should culminate in a hypothesis, which is a tentative answer to your research question. • A hypothesis should… • Be clear • Be specific • Be testable • Be value-free

  6. Variables • How we operationalize concepts • Can be clearly identified and measured Concepts State wealth Democracy Education Regime stability Variables GDP/capita Polity scores % literate Years since coup

  7. Variables • Dependent (DV) = the concept to be explained • Independent/explanatory (IV) = induces/explains DV • Y = f(X) • Plant growth = water + sun + soil • Civil war onset = Education + GDP/capita + pop • Control variables (‘other’ IVs) • Avoid omitted variable bias • Endogeneity issues • …or does…education = civil war + GDP/capita + pop?

  8. Continuous and discrete vars • Continuous = no minimum-sized unit (e.g., GDP/capita) • Discrete = have a minimum size unit (e.g., rich/poor) • H: Higher levels of democracy will lead to more state wealth. • Wealth (DV) = democracy (IV) Continuous = income/capita Discrete = Richer/poorer than median GDP/capita Continuous = polity score Discrete = democracy/non-democracy

  9. Some examples • H: Higher levels of democracy will lead to more state wealth. • Wealth (DV) = democracy (IV) Continuous = income/capita Discrete = Richer/poorer than median GDP/capita Continuous = polity score Discrete = democracy/non-democracy | dem rich | 0 1 | Total -----------+----------------------+---------- 0 | 3,775 1,201 | 4,976 1 | 443 962 | 1,405 -----------+----------------------+---------- Total | 4,218 2,163 | 6,381

  10. Where to find data? • http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/PS235_GenEd/home.htm • …or ask Jason or me.

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