Support for Scenario Statements

1. Support for Scenario Statements Dr. Peter Bishop Futures Studies University of Houston Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting A QRLHE Mutual Learning Workshop Bucharest, Romania November 20, 2010

2. The Problem • Know how to support statements of fact (declarative mood), of which predictions are statements about the future • But futurists deal in statements of possibility/plausibility (subjective mood) • How to support statements of plausibility, statements within scenarios, such as U.S. war with China, double-dip recession, global warming • We can line up evidence for and against; if decent evidence for both, then there are two alternative futures • But only good for yes/no, true/false, happens/doesn’t happen • Can we support more substantive and interesting scenarios, scenarios that state alternative futures rather than just the negation of predictions? • At stake is the credibility of strategic foresight as a professional discipline

3. Words and Probabilities

4. Inference Illustrations Socrates is a man All men are mortal Socrates is mortal Induction Deduction • Every time I flipped the switch, the light came on. • Nothing about the light has changed since the last time I turned it on. • Therefore, the next time I flip the switch, the light will come on. Evidence Assumptions Conclusion

5. Assumption Assumption Assumption Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Inference ModelRelations Inference Unobservable Observable Evidence

6. Critical ThinkingLogic • Evidence • + Assumptions • = Inference, Point, Conclusion, Interpretation • Alternative Evidence • + Their Assumptions • = Alternative Conclusion • Same Evidence • + Alternative Assumption • = Alternative Conclusion

7. Critical ThinkingProcess Inference, Point, Conclusion, Interpretation Evidence Assumptions Alternative Evidence Alternative Conclusion Alternative Assumption Alternative Conclusion or

8. Learnings I • The support for all inferences rests on evidence (observations or inferences taken as observations) • Criteria for good evidence = true, relevant, and sufficient, attributes that are usually present • “Truth” in this case is more group consensus than metaphysical certainty reality. • Every piece of evidence requires at least one assumption to be used in support of an inference – a warrant to use the evidence in support of the inference • Data does not interpret itself. • No inference is “obviously” true without some doubt or uncertainty, no matter how small.

9. Learnings II • The quality of the support for an inference is a function of the quantity and quality of the evidence and the quality of the assumptions associated with that evidence. • The quality of the assumptions (the warrants) is usually the most problematic part of the support, more so than the quality of the evidence. • Or, in other words, the assumptions required to use the evidence in support of the inference are more often what limits the quality of the evidence.

10. Learnings III • All doubt vs reasonable doubt • Support for an inference is weaker in the presence of reasonable alternative assumptions -- alternative assumptions for which there are reasons to believe that they might be true. • Reasonable alternative assumptions support statements of plausible futures rather than just possible futures. • Statements about the future use the same logical structure that statements about the past and the present (science) do.

11. Assumptions Assumptions Forecast History Knowing Different Times Present Evidence Visions Images Events Issues Artifacts Drawings Bones Writings Trends Structures

12. 7. Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation

13. Process • Is it possible to support statements of plausibility (scenarios) in the same way that one can support statements of fact? • Not directly, but indirectly – as plausible alternative inferences to statements of fact. In other words, as alternative scenarios to factual predictions. • Therefore, the support for statements of plausibility (scenarios)… • …begins with the support for the corresponding statement of fact (prediction) • …discovers plausible alternative assumptions within that support (critical thinking) • …uses those plausible alternative assumptions as the basis for alternative inferences (scenarios) • Provided that the original inference (prediction, expected future) has some support, which it usually does, the complete set of scenarios includes that inference and all the plausible alternatives (scenarios).

14. A Toy Example • Prediction: There will be an actual military conflict (some type of war) between the U.S. and China within the next 20 years. • Evidence -- • Major powers often engage each other in war, particularly between incumbent and emerging powers. • China has been building up its military over the last decade. • China has stated that it intends to bring Taiwan under mainland control.

15. Analysis of Assumptions

16. Statement of Scenarios • An actual military conflict (some type of war) between the U.S. and China within the next 20 years. (Prediction) • China only interested in regional, not global hegemony with the U.S. allowing China hegemony in East Asia. (Assumptions a and b) • De facto economic integration with a politically independent Taiwan. China rates economic benefits more important than political ones. (Assumption c)

17. Benefits • Provides a way to develop scenarios through the discovery of alternative assumptions in the support for an original prediction • Provides support for each scenario in the reasons for the alternative assumptions • Opens a discussion about assumptions that can be critically evaluated by others • Allows interested parties to study and monitor the reasons for the alternative assumptions as indicators each scenario becoming more or less plausible • Ultimately rests the scenarios and their support on a transparent process that is based on evidence and judgment, more than just creativity and intuition

18. For Additional Information • Phone +1-281-433-4160 • E-mail pbishop@uh.edu • Web houstonfutures.org Dr. Peter Bishop Educator, Facilitator, Futurist