Overview

1. Overview • Modeling to date: • Distribution of mortality • Achieving improvements with specific actions • Building scenarios • Dealing with uncertainty – some ideas

2. Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Life Cycle 4,000-5,000 eggs 2 spawners 120-151 1-year-olds to Lower Granite Dam 1-1.4Migrants return to spawning grounds 95-119Migrants Below Bonneville Dam (77% transported, 23% in River) 4-5 Youngsters To 2nd Birthday (Estuary & Ocean) 2-3Adults return to mouth of Columbia

3. Rate of population change – Accounting for hatchery fish 1.10 1.00 0.90 Population Growth Rate 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 Snake River Snake River Fall Upper Columbia Lower Columbia Lower Columbia Middle Columbia Upper Willamette Upper Willamette Upper Columbia Spr Hatchery fish reproductive success = 1 Snake River Spr/Sum Columbia River Chum Chinook Steelhead Hatchery fish reproductive success = 0

4. How can we give fish what they need to survive and recover?

5. Hydropower

6. Improvements to hydropower system • Past – passage improvements • Future options • Passage improvements • Flow and spill measures • Dam breaching

7. Past vs. current passage survival Snake River spr/sum chinook

8. Option 1 – anticipated changes with passage improvement

9. Harvest – maximum benefits

10. Are there life stages at which management actions might be most fruitfully aimed?

11. Sensitivity Test – Standard reductions in mortality

12. Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Life Cycle 4,000-5,000 eggs 2 spawners 120-151 1-year-olds to Lower Granite Dam 1-1.4Migrants return to spawning grounds 95-119Migrants Below Bonneville Dam (77% transported, 23% in River) 4-5 Youngsters To 2nd Birthday (Estuary & Ocean) 2-3Adults return to mouth of Columbia

13. Survival vs. sedimentation

15. Hatchery – Genetic concerns • Inadvertent selection due to hatchery practices reduces fitness of hatchery fish. Interbreeding of hatchery and wild fish may affect fitness of wild fish as well. • Domestication – seen in as little as a single generation • Stock transfers

16. 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 10 20 30 40 50 Hatchery – Ecological concerns Average Ocean Productivity Poor Ocean Productivity r2 = 0.06 r2 = 0.73 Percent survival wild chinook (log) 10 20 30 40 50 Number of hatchery spring chinook released (millions)

17. Building scenarios • Combinations of actions – when one isn’t enough • Interactions between actions • Continuing degradation in habitat/other environmental factors

18. Major areas of uncertainty • Hatchery fish masking – what is the TRUE population status? • Interactions between life stages – does survival/growth/experience in one stage affect survival/fitness in another? • Impacts of particular actions

19. Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Life Cycle 4,000-5,000 eggs 2 spawners 120-151 1-year-olds to Lower Granite Dam 1-1.4Migrants return to spawning grounds 95-119Migrants Below Bonneville Dam (77% transported, 23% in River) 4-5 Youngsters To 2nd Birthday (Estuary & Ocean) 2-3Adults return to mouth of Columbia

20. Some possible approaches • Different questions – • What actions (or areas) are important REGARDLESS of the potential future? • Are there easy actions that might be useful for bet-hedging against an unlikely future? • Which pieces of information would be most important to have (would help us reduce our uncertainty)?