Towards an Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Extreme Events on Barrow, Alaska.

1. Towards an Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Extreme Events on Barrow, Alaska. Amanda Lynch and Liz Cassano Thanks to Mat Rothstein, Ron Brunner, Jim Maslanik, John Cassano and the people of Barrow.

2. Towards an Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of ExtTreme Events on Barrow, Alaska. A new project with principal investigators: Amanda Lynch, Ron Brunner, Judy Curry, Anne Jensen, Jim Maslanik, Linda Mearns, Glen Sheehan, James Syvitsky • Climate variability on the North Slope of Alaska • Regional impacts of climate variability • Community responses to regional impacts http://www.colorado.edu/Research/HARC/

3. Climate variability in the Arctic • Rising temperatures • Retreating sea ice • Thawing permafrost • More frequent and intense storms Projections of global climate change remain uncertain, but of all the regions of the globe, there is most agreement about change in the Arctic: the warming already observed will continue.

4. Climate variability: Extreme events • Climate variability is accepted as a fact on the North Slope, because various signs are prominent in the everyday experience of residents. • North Slope residents can and largely have made appropriate responses to impacts on, e.g., subsistence hunting and building foundations. • They are nevertheless very much in doubt about how to minimise the significant vulnerability of people and property to extreme events. • The consensus view is that a study of intense storms in the Barrow area, and the attendant flooding and erosion, is a valuable place to start and a good focus for the coming year for this project.

5. Regional impacts of intense storms

6. Browerville Barrow Credit: Bill Manley and Scott Peckham, INSTAAR

7. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Sea level height near Barrow, 1978-1985 Credit: Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI

8. Regional impacts of intense storms Primary impacts • buildings, including roofs, foundations • roads, boat landings, airfields • utilities (phone, power, natural gas, water and sewage) • equipment, including trucks, barges, and aircraft

9. Regional impacts of intense storms Secondary impacts • food, gasoline, and medical supplies • pollution from storage depot, sewage lagoon or landfill • availability of fauna for subsistence hunting

10. Case study: Storm of August 2000 • Originated over Siberia on August 8th • Record winds at Barrow on August 10th • NWS provided (at most) 3 hours warning • $7.7 million damages

11. Polar MM5 Simulation

12. Case study: Upper level forcing 500 mb Wind 500 mb Thickness 18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at

13. Case study: Upper level forcing 500 mb Vorticity advection 00 UTC 11th August SLP 18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at

14. Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat Residents wondered if the retreating sea ice would shift storms further north, taking them out of harm’s way. Color shading: Sea ice area during storm Black line: Sea ice area, August 7 1998 %

15. Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat Control Ice out Caveat: the treatment of sea ice in Polar MM5 is rather primitive. 6 UTC 11th August: Cyclone most intense, occlusion follows

16. Community Responses • Beach Nourishment Program The NSB initiated a beach nourishment program in September 1986, after a storm drew attention to erosion problems. The Dredge Qayuutaq was damaged by the storm of August 10, 2000. • Federally-subsidised Insurance Federally-subsidised insurance for property along the coastline was considered in 1997 or 1998, but was abandoned in the face of federal zoning requirements, high costs, and local opposition. • Army Corps Feasibility Study A $3-4 million feasibility study for storm damage reduction at Barrow was supported by the Mayor ( 2001). The options being considered include adding width to the beach, raising the beach road, and adding a concrete mattress revetment to the seaward slope of the road and bluffs.

17. Future plans • Description and analysis of climate variability in the Alaskan North Slope coastal region. • Knowledge exchange with local stakeholder groups towards identifying important local impacts of climate change. • Application of models to arrive at plausible scenarios of climate variations. • Application of models/data analysis to arrive at plausible impacts and response scenarios relevant to key environmental issues affecting the coastal zone. …iterate... • Development of a graduate environmental education program integrating the natural and policy sciences in the Arctic.

18. When the heavy ice is way out, old timers say “I hope we don’t have that storm.”