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East Asia and Pacific Data Brief

East Asia and Pacific Data Brief. October 2012. The external environment continues to be weak, and will be so for the foreseeable future (GDP growth, in percent year-on-year, 2000-2015). Source: WB DEC, Unified Survey Assumptions.

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East Asia and Pacific Data Brief

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  1. East Asia and Pacific Data Brief October 2012

  2. The external environment continues to be weak, and will be so for the foreseeable future(GDP growth, in percent year-on-year, 2000-2015) Source: WB DEC, Unified Survey Assumptions

  3. Domestic demand is generating a rising share of growth in most EAP countries, except in China (ASEAN-4: Domestic demand, contribution to year-on-year growth, andChina: Domestic demand, contribution to year-to-date growth, in percentage points, Q1 2007 – Q2 2012) Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics

  4. Headline inflation has decelerated across the region(CPI inflation, in percent year-on-year, January 2007 - August 2012) Source: Haver Analytics

  5. In some countries, central banks have started cutting interest rates(Policy rates, in percent per annum, January 2007 - September 2012) Source: Haver Analytics and Thomson Datastream

  6. EAP Outlook(Percent growth, unless otherwise indicated)

  7. Many countries in the region have considerable cushions to fall back onReserves, in percent of total external liabilities, and GDP, end-2011 Source: WB, World Development Indicators and IMF, International Financial Statistics

  8. Developing East Asia is least exposed to European banks relative to GDP, but claims by European banks top US$450 billion(Consolidated claims by BIS-reporting banks on an immediate borrower basis, end-March 2012) Source: BIS, Consolidated Banking Statistics

  9. Bank capital buffers are large and NPL ratios are low in most countries(Bank capital in percent of assets and Bank non-performing loans in percent of total loans, Q2 and Q3 2011, except China, 2010) Source: FINSTATS and WB staff estimates

  10. Recent global food price increases have not yet affected EAP prices(Regional CPI and food inflation, population-weighted, in percent, through July 2012) Source: WB staff estimates

  11. Mongolia grew by 11 percent in Q2 but growth in industrial output is slowing down…% point contributions to GDP growth, yoy

  12. In Mongolia, inflation has eased slightly but remains highPercentage point, % yoy, UB

  13. Mongolia is particularly exposed to a decrease in commodity prices

  14. If taking a long-term perspective, East Asia’s share in world output and growth has been rising rapidly Developing East Asia’s share of global GDP (PPP, Constant 2005 International $) Developing East Asia’s contribution to global GDP growth (PPP, Constant 2005 International $) World Growth (Source: WB, World Development Indicators)

  15. Labor productivity has grown across the region with China experiencing explosive growth (GDP per person employed, index, 1990=100) Source: ILO, Key Indicators of the Labor Market, and WB staff estimates

  16. Future growth requires more total factor productivity increases(Contributions to per capita growth rate. Simulated at 7 percent beyond 2010) Source: Updated from Bosworth and Collins, World Development Indicators, and National statistics

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