Objective

1. Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation in China’s Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Objective • Attribute the observed runoff trend to the changing climate by considering both direct and indirect climate effects to better understand climate change effects on the water cycle Approach • Use Community Land Model (CLM4) to simulate changes in the annual runoff in the period of 1960–2010 over the Haihe River Basin • Quantify relative contributions of climate factors to historical changes in runoff based on the simulations Dynamic vegetation phenology is critical in modelling the runoff trend Impact • Decreasing precipitation and increasing air temperature are the primary and secondary climatic factors driving the decrease in runoff over the region, respectively • Decreasing solar radiation and wind speed are the primary and secondary factors offsetting decreasing runoff • The significant rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration has a limited impact on changes in runoff because of its complex role in driving the water and carbon cycle interactions • The decreasing trend in simulated runoff may be underestimated if dynamic vegetation phenology is neglected Lei H, D Yang, and M Huang. 2014. “Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Dynamics on Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin in the Past Five Decades” Journal of Hydrology, 511: 786–799. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.029