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Regional Scale Climate Forcing of Chesapeake Bay Trophic Dynamics

Regional Scale Climate Forcing of Chesapeake Bay Trophic Dynamics. David G. Kimmel 1 , W. David Miller 1 , Robert J. Wood 2 , Xinsheng Zhang 2 , Lawrence W. Harding, Jr. 1,3 and Michael R. Roman 1 1 University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, Maryland USA

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Regional Scale Climate Forcing of Chesapeake Bay Trophic Dynamics

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  1. Regional Scale Climate Forcing of Chesapeake Bay Trophic Dynamics David G. Kimmel1, W. David Miller1, Robert J. Wood2, Xinsheng Zhang2, Lawrence W. Harding, Jr. 1,3 and Michael R. Roman1 1University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, Maryland USA 2NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office-Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, Maryland USA 3Maryland Sea Grant College, University System of Maryland, College Park, Maryland USA

  2. Introduction • Freshwater input is a major forcing factor of physical changes in Chesapeake Bay • Question: Is the variability in freshwater input the result of climate variability? • Is a large scale climate link evident (North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, etc.)? • Question: What is the link between climate, freshwater input and trophic dynamics in Chesapeake Bay?

  3. Large Scale Climate Indices

  4. Classifying climate variability: synoptic climatology -The relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the surface environment of a region (Yarnal 1993)

  5. Weather Patterns

  6. Wet and Dry Period Anomalies

  7. Predicting spring freshwater discharge of the Susquehanna River Cumulative frequency of winter (Dec-Feb) climate patterns is used to predict spring (Mar-May) cumulative discharge

  8. Ecosytem Response: Chlorophyll a

  9. Ecosytem Response: Chlorophyll a

  10. Ecosystem response: zooplankton

  11. Ecosystem response: zooplankton Kimmel and Roman (2004) Mar Ecol Prog Ser 267:71-83

  12. Ecosystem response: gelatinous zooplankton

  13. Ecosystem response: fish

  14. Ecosystem response: fish Jung and Houde 2004

  15. Spring Trophic Dynamics

  16. Spring Trophic Dynamics

  17. Conclusions • A regional climate signal clearly forces Chesapeake Bay trophic dynamics largely through freshwater input • Climate variability must be taken into account when evaluating ecosystem response to anthropogenic perturbation • Understanding how trophic dynamics change in response to climate will allow better prediction of ecosystem response to climate change

  18. Acknowledgements Tim Carruthers, IAN, UMCES Jane Thomas, IAN, UMCES Chesapeake Bay Program This research has been supported by a grant from the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Estuarine and Great Lakes (EaGLe) program through funding to the Atlantic Coast Estuarine Indicators Consortium (ACE INC), US EPA Agreement R82867701.

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