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CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina

CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Introduction and Welcome. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability). CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of

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CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina

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  1. CLIVAR SSG 14Buenos Aires, Argentina • Introduction and Welcome

  2. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. http://www.clivar.org

  3. CLIVAR Mission • To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. Science <-> Applications

  4. CLIVAR Goals and Objectives • Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … • Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … • Extend the record of climate variability … • Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

  5. CLIVAR SSG 14Buenos Aires, Argentina • Introduction and Welcome • Agenda • Review of SSG 13 • Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India • Purpose of this meeting

  6. Agenda

  7. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL AM

  8. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL PM

  9. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL AM

  10. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL PM

  11. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL AM

  12. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL PM

  13. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA SATURDAY 22 APRIL AM

  14. Review of SSG 13

  15. Conference Statistics • 650+ Attendees - the largest WCRP Conference ever! • 56 Countries • 650+ Posters • 35 Oral presentations • 9 Discussants • 4 Press briefings • 17 panelists, 5 moderators • Several stories went to print… • 80+ students, 16 poster awards • 14 Major sponsors

  16. CLIVAR Assessment • Organised by: • CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs • Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” • Overall programme structure & the ICPO

  17. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

  18. CLIVAR Assessment • Organised by: • CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs • Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” • Overall programme structure & the ICPO • Team of 6 assessors and SSG liaisons • Inputs • Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire • CLIVAR web pages & documents • Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions • CLIVAR Conference • Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 • Subsequent analysis of outcomes

  19. Key outcomes of CLIVAR to date • Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean and atmospheric climate observations, in situ & remotely-sensed • St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs’99) and definition of the approach to global ocean observations, e.g., • Extension of buoy arrays into the Atlantic Ocean • Developing Indian Ocean climate observing system • New focus on ocean climate re-analysis • Global ARGO deployment • Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT • Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast system intercomparisons and development of ensemble prediction methods • Experimental decadal prediction • Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC • Focus on American monsoon systems and processes (VAMOS NAME & MESA)

  20. CLIVAR - global view

  21. Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Science Foci • Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback • Global synthesis & observation links • Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC • Links between process studies & model improvement • Cross CLIVAR effort on climate indices • Ocean observing strategy including hydrography & carbon links • Ocean reanalysis activity & related data management issues • Pan WCRP monsoon activity (with GEWEX) • Applications of CLIVAR science

  22. Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Summary Response • On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes: ENSO, Monsoons, THC/Decadal and ACC. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four themes. • ACC representation to be increased on SSG • Global perspective/framework to be provided by GSOP, WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD, and CCD • Global to regional perspective provided by Monsoon Panels for VAMOS, VACS, and AAMP and Ocean Basin Panels for Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans

  23. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Management Foci • Continued programme assessment • Annual workshops against the 4 science foci in turn (ENSO, ACC, Monsoons, Decadal/THC) • Overall CLIVAR structure • CLIVAR’s global<=>regional panel interactions • CLIVAR visibility and networking • Overall CLIVAR data and information management • Web site development • New structure for the ICPO

  24. Progress Since SSG 13 • GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP) • Basin panels metric input to GSOP • Climate Process Team (CPT) concept • USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4 • Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of JSC • New web site • Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant

  25. Summary of JSC XXVIII

  26. Summary of JSC XXVII X • COPES

  27. Summary of JSC XXVII • Task Forces ~ 2 years • Sea Level TF, June 2006 meeting • TFSP  CLIVAR/WGSIP post 2007 meeting • ENSO definition • POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination • CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop • USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop • WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to develop Climate and Chemistry initiative • CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II • WGCM encouraged to consider decadal predictability

  28. Summary of JSC XXVII • All projects “requested” to submit program metrics

  29. Performance metrics for CLIVAR  New resources enabled by leveraging off of CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. $15M GEF funding of LPB, ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4 analyses)  Improvements in: 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power, frequency) and 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in coupled models  Number of global ocean observation deployments and transition of process study and research observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)  Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias reduction, and the number of new parameterizations incorporated into operational models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)  Metric tracking capacity building within and incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS, AAMP)  Global and regional data products enabled by CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses, African Climate Atlas)

  30. Summary of JSC XXVII • All projects “requested” to submit program metrics • CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the other projects • WCRP Road Map • Project by Project • JSC and WCRP as a whole

  31. Summary of JSC XXVII • Where does CLIVAR fit into this state space? • Current State. How does CLIVAR currently “populate” this space • Future Physical Climate System. How and where does CLIVAR intend to “grow” physical climate science so that we are seen to identify, encourage and facilitate the best research in the world? • Future Seamless Prediction Goal. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science towards our stated goal of seamless climate prediction? • Future Earth System Contribution Target. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science toward the desired aim of contributing to Earth System projection and interpretation? • Benefits Delivery. How and to whom are CLIVAR research benefits delivered?

  32. Purpose of this meeting • Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS • Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP • New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks, input welcome) • Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans, Global Modeling • In contrast to long series of possibly disconnected panel reports • Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG engagement is crucial) • Development of CLIVAR Roadmap

  33. Template for reporting for CLIVAR SSG-14 • Panel or Working Group: • Contributions to CLIVAR’s 4 major themes: • 2.1 ENSO and other modes of tropical variability: • 2.2Monsoons: • 2.3 Decadal variability and the thermohaline circulation: • 2.4 Anthropogenic climate change: • 3. Summary of contribution to annual thematic workshop(s) • 4. Contributions to the additional theme of the ocean’s role in climate (where not covered under the 4 themes) • 5. Highlights of contributions to wider areas of climate science, including modelling, observational and synthesis studies:

  34. New activities being planned: • 6.1 Modelling activities, including activities related to regional assessment of global model outputs: • 6.2 Synthesis activities: • 6.3 Coordinated field programmes and other observational activities: • 6.4 Workshops etc: • 6.5 Links to applications: • 6.6 Other: • Cross Panel and Working Group Links: • Cross WCRP/COPES links • Data management activities: • Review of appropriateness of ToRs 11. Issues for the SSG:

  35. CLIVAR - global view

  36. Purpose of this meeting • Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs • Roundtable: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme. Panel contributions to crosscut theme. • Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC matrix.) • Report back on Saturday

  37. Purpose of this meeting • ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead Overview: Michele Rienecker • Roundtable: Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc. • Theme Assessor: Axel Timmermann

  38. Synthesis monsoon Meridional mode Meridional mode ENSO Atlantic Nino I,II IOZDM

  39. Synthesis Indian Monsoon Meridional Mode Atlantic Meridional mode Pacific IOZDM Atlantic NINO ENSO Indian monopole Which interactions need to be resolved further? What data do we need to understand these links? What numerical experiments ought to be done to elucidate the mechanisms?

  40. Purpose of this meeting • Monsoon Theme Lead Overview: Bin Wang • Roundtable: VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN), VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX • Theme Assessor: Duane Walliser

  41. Purpose of this meeting • Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview: Jochum Marotzke • Roundtable: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM, IOP, etc. • Theme Assessor: Wilco Hazeleger

  42. Purpose of this meeting • ACC Theme Lead Overview: Tatsushi Tokioka for Bryant McAveney • Roundtable: WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES • Theme Assessor: Jerry Meehl

  43. Purpose of this meeting • Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview: Jerry Meehl • Roundtable: WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP • Theme Assessor: Pedro Silva Dias

  44. Purpose of this meeting • Ocean’s Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview: Ed Harrison • Roundtable: GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, IOP • Theme Assessor: Bob Weller

  45. Thanks!

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