1 / 27

COUNTRY PRESENTATION: SENEGAL

COUNTRY PRESENTATION: SENEGAL. Overview. Orientation and Geography Brief History Political, Social, and Economic Structure Current Trends Key Issues Future Outlook. Orientation and Geography. Orientation and Geography II.

geraldmcdonald
Download Presentation

COUNTRY PRESENTATION: SENEGAL

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. COUNTRY PRESENTATION:SENEGAL

  2. Overview • Orientation and Geography • Brief History • Political, Social, and Economic Structure • Current Trends • Key Issues • Future Outlook

  3. Orientation and Geography

  4. Orientation and Geography II • Area: Slightly smaller than South Dakota with rolling sandy plains of the western Sahel • Dakar is the capital and largest city in Senegal with over two million residents. • Tropical climate with well defined dry and humid seasons • Dry season: December to April; temperatures range from 65-90 degrees along coast, with maxes reaching 129 in desert • The country enjoys a favorable geographic location, with a major seaport and easy access to the large European and North American markets • Erratic rainfall can lead to harvest and market fluctuations. • Senegal has several competitive advantages: political stability, government commitment, good road networks, a major port, and a competitive exchange rate arrangement • Good transportation, telecommunication, and communication infrastructure • The country also offers a relatively competitive export framework, including no taxes on exports, low shipping costs, easy repatriation of capital and income, abundant semiskilled and unskilled human resources, and a relatively robust telecommunications infrastructure

  5. Brief History • 1960: Independence from France in June • 1960: Senegal and French Sudan (Mali) proclaimed independence in April • 1982: Senegal joined with The Gambia to form • Senegambia Confederation in 1982. • 1989: Union dissolved in • Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) • Southern Separatist group with varying levels of violence • 1993: Major economic reform program • Support of international donors; 50% devaluation of currency • Government price controls and subsidies diminished…. • Inflation went down, investment went up • GDP rose 5% from 1996-2001 • 2004: President announces signing of peace treaty • 2006: Outbreak of conflict; Refugees begin fleeing • 2011: Regional food security crisis • 2014: Unilateral cease-fire declared • 2014: Offshore oil discovered in October/November • 2015: Cairn Energy looking to expand • *Endless Summer filmed in 1965 • Contributed to tourism and travel in the region

  6. Political Structure • Senegal is one of the most democratically developed and stable states in sub-Saharan Africa • A sound electoral system and a strong democratic tradition, supported by vigilant free media • Given the political stability enjoyed by the country and the vitality of its democratic process, political risks might probably be deemed moderate Benefits from close partnerships with Western donors • Senegal has had four presidents since its independence: • Wade: Son of former President, minister. Stood trial for embezzlement for 238 million dollars. • Current President: Macky Sall • Has been looking to reduce corruption and conflict.

  7. Social Structure • Estimated population of 14.5 million, 50% of which live in urban zones. • 46.7 percent poverty levels • Socioeconomic conditions remain poor. Senegal ranks 30th in Africa (163rd worldwide) on the UN’s Human Development Index • Life expectancy at birth: 60.6 years • Literacy rate: 50% • Urban population: 42% of total • Per capita income of slightly above US $1,000 • Social problems: • High unemployment, socioeconomic disparity, and juvenile deliquency • Secular State • The population is 94% Muslim, and indigenous religious leaders are socially and economically influential. • Predominantly Sunni Muslim • Religious and ethnic divisions exist, but play less of a role in Senegalese politics compared to West Africa. • Languages: French (Official) • Wolof, Pulaar, Serer, Soninke, and other local languages

  8. Economic Structure • Liberal Capitalist Regime • Infrastructure investments, reforms, and donor assistance have provided the conditions for economic growth in recent years, but wealth creation has been concentrated in the capital, Dakar, and among political and economic elites. • Poor management of exports • It is one of the most industrialized countries in the region, with favorable investment ratings • Relies on imports for 70% of its food supply. • Senegal suffered from a regional food security crisis in 2011 and 2012. • Discontent over socioeconomic conditions has contributed to a high rate of emigration • Human trafficking, exploitation, and human rights violation • Tourism and travel related to stability of government • Senegal is also a party to a range of agreements that provide it with privileged market access, including bilateral agreements with several large economies (in particular China and the United States (AGOA)), and is also signatory to the Cotonou Agreement, which provides (reciprocal) duty-free access to European Union (EU) markets for African, Caribbean, and Pacific country exports • Senegal aspires to become an emerging country by 2035

  9. Economic Factors • GDP and economic growth: • GDP growth rose in 2014 to an estimated 4.5%, its highest pace since 2008. • Economic growth: 3.5% • GDP by sector: Agriculture 15.3%; Industry 22.7%; Services 61.9% (2012) • Key Economic Sectors: • Imports: Fuel, capital equipment, tobacco, and foodstuffs. • Exports: Fishing, tourism, groundnuts (peanuts), phosphates, cotton, POL • Fishing: 12 mile exclusive fishing zone regularly breached • Illegal fishing results in ~300,000 tons of fish lost each year • Major Trading Partners: France (13% of total imports), Mali, China, India, UK, Nigeria, Italy, U.S. • Currency: West African CFA Franc (XOF); XOF to USD: ~597 to 1 • Indebtedness • Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) • ~2.5 billion to U.S. • Foreign Aid • Significant foreign U.S aid and increases • Tourism • Parks, beaches, reserves, and attractions • Remittances: 600 billion CFA francs ($1.4 billion) in 2011 and were worth 10% of GDP • Remittance growth continues to increase

  10. Recent Development I • Relatively strong growth from 1995–2005 of 4.5% • Led to a substantial decline in poverty from 68% to 48% • However, from 2006–2013 growth decelerated to an average of 3.4%, reflecting a poor business climate • Problems in the energy sector, poor infrastructure, low efficiency of public investment, and unproductive subsidies • In addition, Senegal was hit by a series of externally sourced shocks, such as spikes in food and fuel prices, the global financial crisis, regional droughts and floods, and more recently, the spillovers from the Ebola outbreak

  11. Recent Development II • Senegal has been stuck in a low-growth equilibrium since 2006. Over the last decade Senegal has been outperformed by SSA which grew at an average rate of 6% whereas growth in Senegal averaged only 3.3% since 2006 • While prudent policies have helped preserve macroeconomic stability, slow implementation of structural reforms is weighing down growth

  12. Senegal WEF I

  13. Senegal WEF II

  14. Senegal WEF III

  15. Primary School Completion

  16. Literacy Rate 15-24yo

  17. TFP

  18. Imports and Exports

  19. Key Issues • Overexploited fish stocks, along with air and water pollution • Infrastructure for water treatment • Stuck in low-growth equilibrium since 2006 • Poverty remains high at 46.7%, and the number of poor has risen since 2006. Given an estimated annual population growth of 2.6%, gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains well below the rate necessary for significant poverty reduction • The end of the Ebola epidemic will benefit the national economy. However, Ebola has had a serious negative impact on tourism in the first half 2015 • The business environment is hampered by poor investor protection, cumbersome procedures for paying taxes and registering property, inadequate supply of infrastructure, difficulty accessing financing, and corruption Sources: WEFORUM, World Bank

  20. Key Issues Cont. • Agricultural sector is vulnerability to adverse weather • Opening the economy has made the country sensitive to the fluctuations of international markets and to economic changes in Europe • Senegal is also vulnerable to the security situation in Mali • Inadequate business opportunities (business climate, rigidities leading to high factor costs, high taxes, corruption, etc.) and inadequate access and cost of financing (high guarantees, concentration on short-term credit etc.) limit private sector development • Significant bottlenecks with high electricity costs and insufficient electricity production Sources: ADB, IMF

  21. Future Outlook • Short Term Outlook • Continued growth • Multiple potentially detrimental variables • Minimal economic resilience to shocks • Benefits from global oil price slump • Mid – Long Term Outlook • Offshore oil discoveries – (10% National Interest) • Senegal investing in agriculture by 10 percent each year to boost productivity. • Plan Sénégal émergent (PSE)

  22. Future Outlook Cont. • The “emerging Senegal plan” (Plan Sénégal émergent – PSE) seeks to turn Senegal into an emerging economy by 2035 through: • Higher and sustainable growth through structural transformation • Human capital, social protection and sustainable development • Improved governance, peace, and security (IMF, ADB) • Goal: Meet Senegalese aspirations for improvements in well being. By 2020: • Sustainable 7-8 % annual growth. • Creation of 600,000 jobs. • GDP increase to $1500 USD.

  23. Future Outlook Cont. • PSE Specifics: • Attract foreign investment and increase private investment (IMF) • Improving the impact of public spending through public financial management reforms (IMF) • Containing public consumption to promote investment(IMF) • Restructuring of the energy sector and increasing export competitiveness (IMF) • Eliminate fiscal subsidies to the electricity sector and expand coverage capacity (IMF) • Implement reforms in energy, business, land tenure, logistics and infrastructure, information and communications technology. • Institutionalize measures to reduce corruption

  24. Future Outlook Cont. • Progress • Infrastructure improvements underway. • Inflation was 1.4% last year, compared with the sub-Saharan African average of 7.3%, according to the International Monetary Fund. • Risks • Neglecting implementation of required reforms. • Failing to embrace lessons learned from successful comparator countries. • Insufficient focus on building institution and human capital • Generating debt, but not growth.

  25. Conclusion Questions

More Related