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Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis

Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis. Fabrizio Onida Università Bocconi, Milano EIPA and SSPA, Rome , October 28, 2009. A V-shaped recovery (so far…). Rebounding trade (WEO October 2009). Export orders decline stabilized in Europe. China and other BRICs.

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Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis

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  1. Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis Fabrizio Onida Università Bocconi, Milano EIPA and SSPA, Rome, October 28, 2009

  2. A V-shaped recovery (so far…)

  3. Rebounding trade (WEO October 2009)

  4. Export orders decline stabilized in Europe

  5. China and other BRICs

  6. Consumer confidence still weak

  7. Business confidence recovering

  8. 0il and commodity prices up again: impact of recovery or volatile speculation?

  9. Trade-output elasticity: will it go back to about 2 after crisis?

  10. Risks of W-shaped recovery • 1. Unemployment on rise • 2. Premature exhuberance in financial markets • 3. Delayed policy responses to regulations of derivatives • 4. (Medium term) uncertainty on debt/GDPO ratios “A dull, heavy calm” (Economist, October 3, 2009)

  11. Growth, inflation, current account balance(IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009

  12. World import shares (a), geographical weights on Italy’s export (b), Italy’s world export shares • Quota di ciascun mercato sulle importazioni mondiali • Peso mercato su export Italia • Export Italia/export Mondo su ogni mercato • Quota c) rapportata a quota media Export Italia/Export Mondo (3.6%) • Saldo (export – import) in milioni di euro Fonte: ICE, Rapporto 2007-08

  13. World trade shares: Africa and Middle East low but rising

  14. Value and Shares of World Exports 1948 – 2005billion dollars and percentage

  15. Value and Shares of World Imports 1948 – 2005billion dollars and percentage

  16. World merchandise exporters (excluding intra-EU 27 trade), 2007

  17. World merchandise importers (excluding intra-EU 27 trade), 2007

  18. Leading exporters-importers

  19. North Africa’s import origins

  20. Middle East: intra-regional and EU integration

  21. “Natural resource curse”: Africa and Middle East slower decline than other Developing economies

  22. More and less favourable macro-structural indicators • Developing Mediterranean countries vs. other developing African and Asian countries: 1. More favourable: - reduction in child mortality 1990-2005 - gross enrollment ratio in secondary education (% of relevant age group) - public debt/GDSP - ODA/GDP 2. Less favourable: - population rate of growth 90-05 and forecast 2005-15 - unemployment - poor infrastructures - oil-gas export dependence (Algeria, Lybia, Siria, Egypt) “The creation of the Union for the Mediterranean is hardly the rebirth of imperial Rome, but it may just be the start of something exciting” (The Economist, “Club Med”, July 12°, 2008)

  23. FDIs: still rising in developing areas in 2008, unlike developed ones. How heavy 2009 fall?

  24. FDI into developing areas: no crush in 2009

  25. Egypt largest recipient of M&A investors from Europe and Gulf

  26. Euromed integration and outward oriented development: catching the opportunities and a long way to go! All the best!

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