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Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China

Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China. Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University. New Markets (000s of new vehicles). CO2 in our atmosphere (800-2000). CO 2. Global warming V Kyoto Protocol V EU Commitment V EU: ACEA-EC agreement: ,SO….

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Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China

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  1. Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University

  2. New Markets (000s of new vehicles) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  3. CO2 in our atmosphere (800-2000) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  4. CO2 Global warming V Kyoto Protocol V EU Commitment V EU: ACEA-EC agreement: ,SO… Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  5. EU Car sector response • Voluntary reductions from 1995-2004 by a number of manufacturers, incl. Volvo • ACEA-EC agreement: • intro of ‘3 litre’ cars (<100g/km) by 2000 • 2008: average 140g/km • 2012: average 120g/km (proposed) • Also followed by JAMA (Japan), KAMA (Korea) (1995 EU fleet average: 170g/km) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  6. How do you reduce CO2? • Improve fuel consumption - increase powertrain efficiency; reduce weight • use non-carbon or lower-carbon alternative fuels (e.g. H2; CNG, LPG) • use carbon-neutral fuels (e.g.ethanol, biodiesel) • reduce total miles driven Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  7. 140g cars: Fiat Panda (all) Fiat Punto 1.2 8v Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 Merc A Class 170CDI MINI One 1.4D Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi Renault Scenic 1.5dCI Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: Audi A21.4TDi Citroen C2/C3 Hdi Honda Civic IMA Peugeot 206 1.4HDi Renault Megane 1.5dCI Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) Toyota Prius VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD CO2 Winners Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  8. Average new car CO2 emissions(2005) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  9. UK • CO2-based road tax regime • CO2-based company car taxation system • Incentives for alternative fuel vehicles • Fuel price escalator (dropped 2000) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  10. UK Segmentation change 1994-2003 Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  11. UK new car CO2 emissions 1997-2005 + China 2005(source: SMMT, BRASS) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  12. China: Forecast car growth 2005-2030(source: BRASS) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  13. China – suggested policy/technology options(Zhengzheng 2006) • Encourage small cars • Encourage diesel cars • Encourage alternative fuels and powertrain New incentives: • Reduction of consumption tax on small cars (< 1000cc) from 3% to 1% • Increase in consumption tax for large vehicles (> 3000cc) from 8% to 14%-20% • Reduced parking charges for small cars • Lift all restrictions on use of small cars (e.g. Guangzhou) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  14. Minicars • Japanese ‘kei’ cars: • 3.4mx1.48mx2m • max 660cc • Korean minicars (800cc) • European small car tradition • Encouraged by taxation regimes • Including sub-cars Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  15. Diesel Cars • 25% - 30% lower CO2 emissions than petrol for same engine size • However higher carbon content per litre • Diesel is lean-burn hence produces higher NOx emissions than modern petrol • Also higher PM emissions – carcinogenic Most of the EU reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions has been achieved by a shift from petrol to diesel Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  16. 140g cars: Fiat Panda (all) Fiat Punto 1.2 8v Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 Merc A Class 170CDI MINI One 1.4D Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi Renault Scenic 1.5dCI Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: Audi A21.4TDi Citroen C2/C3 Hdi Honda Civic IMA Peugeot 206 1.4HDi Renault Megane 1.5dCI Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) Toyota Prius VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD Diesel cars (in red) Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  17. Alternative Fuels/Powertrain Alternative fuels • Can be used in existing IC engines with no or minor modification • Low impact on car makers • Potentially carbon neutral • E.g.: CNG, LNG, LPG, biodiesel, bioethanol Alternative Powertrain • Alternatives to IC • High impact on car makers • E.g.: fuel cells, hybrid-electric? Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  18. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  19. Alternatives for China? • China needs crops to feed its people, not its cars • China could only make H2 from coal (some hydro, a bit of oil); which would need carbon sequestration So these do not solve its immediate problems Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  20. …or hybrid IC-electric: e.g. Toyota Prius now made in China Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  21. China: CO2 reduction scenarios Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

  22. Conclusion • Although all technologies considered improve on the baseline • Hybrid-electric has the greatest impact • …or possibly a diesel-electric hybrid powertrain fitted to a minicar! Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

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