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Burley and Dark Tobacco Situation and Outlook Will Snell, University of Kentucky

Burley and Dark Tobacco Situation and Outlook Will Snell, University of Kentucky. U.S. Burley Acres. 2012 U.S. Burley Acres +14%. Will these Acres Get Harvested?. Source: NASS/USDA. Agricultural Economics. Average U.S. Burley Yields. Source: NASS/USDA. Agricultural Economics.

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Burley and Dark Tobacco Situation and Outlook Will Snell, University of Kentucky

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  1. Burley and Dark Tobacco Situation and Outlook • Will Snell, University of Kentucky

  2. U.S. Burley Acres 2012 U.S. Burley Acres +14% Will these Acres Get Harvested? Source: NASS/USDA Agricultural Economics

  3. Average U.S. Burley Yields Source: NASS/USDA Agricultural Economics

  4. U.S. Burley Production vs Disappearance (Use) October Crop Report: 195 million lbs (+13%) Source: NASS/ERS/AMS, UK Disappearance Estimates for 2011-2012 Agricultural Economics

  5. Total World Burley Production 2012 World Burley Production : -25% 2013 World Burley Production : +24% Source: Universal Leaf, September 2012 Agricultural Economics

  6. U.S. Burley Export Value vs Brazilian Import Value Source: USDA/TMA Agricultural Economics

  7. U.S. Burley Exports Jan-July 2012, U.S. Burley Exports Flat Source: ERS/AMS/TMA Agricultural Economics

  8. 2012 Burley Contract Price Schedules Based on the big bale and the following crop throw 10%Xs, 20% Cs, 40% Bs, 10% BRs and 20% Ts Agricultural Economics

  9. U.S. Burley Prices 2012 Contract Prices --- Up 4 to 7+ cents/lb on top grades ??? Source: ERS/ NASS/USDA Agricultural Economics

  10. What about 2012 Burley Market/2013 Outlook? • Strong 2012 Burley Market • Tight Quality Burley Supplies • Stabilizing Exports/Domestic Use • Decent Quality Crop • 2013 Market Outlook • Contract Lbs Offers Could Increase for Some Growers (Depends on 2012 Marketing Levels) • How Will Burley Growers Respond? • Continued Favorable Outlook for Other Ag Enterprises • Labor challenges • Regulation uncertainty • GAP/Contract demands • Aging infrastructure • Tightening access to credit

  11. What About Dark Tobacco? U.S. Snuff Production

  12. U.S. Dark Tobacco Use Source: ERS/NASS/USDA Agricultural Economics

  13. US Dark Tobacco Acres Source: NASS/USDA Agricultural Economics

  14. Value of Kentucky Tobacco Production $370 Mil ??? Source: Ky Ag Stats/NASS, 2012 Estimates by UK Agricultural Economics

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