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Elizabeth G. Sutherland 1, 2 David L. Carr 2 Siân L. Curtis 1, 2

Fertility and the environment in a natural resource dependent economy: Evidence from Petén, Guatemala. Elizabeth G. Sutherland 1, 2 David L. Carr 2 Siân L. Curtis 1, 2 1. Maternal and Child Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 2. Carolina Population Center. Introduction.

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Elizabeth G. Sutherland 1, 2 David L. Carr 2 Siân L. Curtis 1, 2

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  1. Fertility and the environment in a natural resource dependent economy: Evidence from Petén, Guatemala Elizabeth G. Sutherland 1, 2 David L. Carr 2 Siân L. Curtis 1, 2 1. Maternal and Child Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 2. Carolina Population Center

  2. Introduction • Natural resource use and access have long been thought to be important in shaping rural fertility patterns • Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the relationships between natural resources and fertility • This study tests these natural resource-fertility hypotheses in the Petén, an agricultural frontier in Northern Guatemala

  3. Study Setting • Petén- a tropical agricultural frontier • dramatic population growth • high rates of deforestation

  4. N W E Petén Belize S Mexico G u a t e m a l a Honduras ElSalvador 0 2 0 0 M i l e s Map of Guatemala Showing the Petén

  5. Study Setting • Petén- a tropical agricultural frontier • dramatic population growth • high rates of deforestation

  6. Petenero Family of Children

  7. Study Setting • Petén- a tropical agricultural frontier • dramatic population growth • high rates of deforestation

  8. Deforestation in the Petén

  9. Data and Methods • Data for this study comes from the 1998/1999 Encuesta de Salud Materno Infantil • Individual questionnaires

  10. Data and Methods • In addition, in the Petén, a household survey on health, migration, and natural resources was conducted

  11. Data and Methods • Multivariate regression (n=404) • Do natural resource variables predict the number of living children? • Controls in the Model • Maternal factors • Household factors

  12. Land Labor Hypothesis Land Security Hypothesis Frontier Hypothesis Cattle Hypothesis Common Property Resources Hypothesis Unsupported Unsupported Unsupported Supported Unsupported Hypothesis Supported?

  13. Conclusions • no support for many natural resource-fertility hypotheses • some evidence that cattle ownership and perception of land availability for children relate to fertility • cross-sectional data

  14. Future Research • longitudinal or panel data • multilevel models and • qualitative analyses

  15. Questions?

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