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Early Warning Systems State of Play

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM The Eighth Inter-Sessional Meeting on Disaster Relief. Early Warning Systems State of Play. Annunziato, D. Al-Khudhairy Joint Research Centre, European Commission Banda Aceh, Indonesia, 5-6 December 2008. The Disaster Cycle – Focus on Recovery. Classical Phases:

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Early Warning Systems State of Play

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  1. ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM The Eighth Inter-Sessional Meeting on Disaster Relief Early Warning Systems State of Play Annunziato, D. Al-Khudhairy Joint Research Centre, European Commission Banda Aceh, Indonesia, 5-6 December 2008

  2. The Disaster Cycle – Focus on Recovery • Classical Phases: • Mitigation - Minimizing effects of potential disaster. • Examples: building codes and zoning; vulnerability analyses; public education, and awareness raising. • Preparedness - Planning how to respond. • Examples: preparedness plans; emergency exercises/training; warning systems. • Response - Efforts to minimize impacts of a disaster. • Examples: search and rescue; emergency relief . • Recovery - Returning the community to normal. • Examples: temporary housing; grants; medical care. includes an important component on Alerting, early warning.

  3. The Importance of Timely Early Warning • Early warningdoes not only imply alerting before an event happens, which is hazard dependent and is often impossible. More and more, it means sudden alerting for a quick response and recovery • The period after an event and before the arrival of relief is a critical one in which • Other human lives may be lost • Risk for secondary effects (epidemics) is high • Perceived by survivors as highly dangerous Response And Recovery Relief and Rehabilitation Emergency Rescue Event Alerting

  4. Key Early Warning components • Veryoften EWS are dormant, notvisiblebuthavetoresponsivewhenneeded (ex. ABS in yourcar) • Thisisonly the last chainof a long process: • Monitoring • Analysis • Evaluation and identification • Alerting • The numberofNaturalDisastersAlertingsystemsisincreasing and they are becomingincreasingly sophisticated: • Veryimportantsystemsforearthquakes • Hurricanes or Typhoonsprediction • Volcanoesmonitoring • Landslides or snowfall • Floodsprediction • The complexityof the system ishazarddependent • Tsunamirequire the mosthighlytechnologicalresponseasitmayinteractwith the eventitself • Tropicalcyclonessystems can alsobeeffective in savinglivesbut the leadtimeisgreater

  5. The risk is that the amount of information is so big that it becomes difficult to judge if an event is a real disaster or not • If you have one clock you know the time; if you have two or more clocks you no longer know which clock is correct since each one is likely to give you a different time • Important factors to consider • Reliability of the information source • Velocity in analysing and disseminating the information • The form of the reports has to be understandable by who has to take decisions • The alert must reach the people at risk on time • Collaboration and information sharing for a better situation awareness • Issues for discussion • Whohas the responsibility to alert Who ? • Who should be the recipients of the alert messages ? • Automatic versus manual alerting ?

  6. Tsunami EWS: UNESCO • When major earthquakes occuring in the Pacific Rim have magnitudes larger than Mag. 6.5 24h Tsunami Warning Center send out different type of alerting messages • Tsunami Information Bulletin - At this time, though a threat exists, there is no evidence that a tsunami is making its way across the Pacific. • Tsunami Warning - PTWC finds conditions serious enough to issue immediate concern to parts of the Pacific. The message will include approximate arrival times for various parts of the Pacific. • Tsunami Watch - PTWC has determined the earthquake may very likely have created a tsunami and is advising parties to be alert as PTWC awaits tide data to support tsunami generation. Established in 1965 Sends out telex, fax, email Interim Indian Ocean EWS

  7. Japan Meterological Agency

  8. Tsunami Scenario DB for Japan

  9. National Early Warning Systems • GITEWS: German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System • Inaugurated 11 November 2008

  10. The Concept: Tsunami Early Warning & Mitigation Center Systems Seismic Monitoring GPS Tide Gauges Ocean Bottom Units Buoys EO Data Observations Simulation • Local Authorities • People at Risk • Other national andinternational recipients Assessment and Decision Support

  11. Decision Support System

  12. Portugal TEWS • Portugal was hit by a devastating earthquake and consequent Tsunami in 1755 that completely destroyed Lisbon; the tsunami ravaged the coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco; • Portuguese Institute of Meteorology received the task from Portuguese Government to establish a National Tsunami Early Warning System, first version ready by end of 2008 • JRC is supporting Portugal for the establishment of the National Tsunami Warning System, • Tsunami Scenario Development • Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) • Due to Portugal geographical location the installation of a national TWS is a step forward to implement a RTWS for the Gulf of Cadiz and North East Atlantic area,

  13. Portugal TEWS Scenario Database Seismic Network Tide gauge Network Institute of Meteorology: Signals analysis and messages creation TAT: Tsunami Analysis Tool Portuguese Civil Protection Alerting

  14. TAT to fuse information Elapsed time from event Time of the event Current time Online Calculation Grid calculation Buoys water level • JRC Tsunami scenario database • MOST database from NOAA • 240 sea level measurements around the world

  15. It is very important to get agreement with as much as possible sea level data providers in order to reduce the delay • Example Cascais data: • Constant delay from data provider 3 minutes • Minimum delay from GLOSS data 7 minutes, updated every hour 49 DART buoys 250 tidal measurem.

  16. Messages creation 1 On line events 2 Analysis Alerting Msg Generation 3

  17. The GDACS system: alerting the humanitarian community • Purpose • Real-time alerting of humanitarian disasters world wide • Sharing disaster related information • Partners • UN-OCHA • DG-ECHO, DG-ENV, DG-RELEX • Users • Humanitarian aid donors: ECHO, USAID, national governments • International organisations: UN OCHA, IFRC • Humanitarian implementers: NGOs, national governments • Operational since 2003 • About 5000 users receive GDACS alerts worldwide • Completely free

  18. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System Near real time monitoring of natural disasters www.gdacs.org • earthquakes, • hurricanes, • volcanoes • floods http://www.gdacs.org

  19. Call from Early Warning Systems: GDACS 24 Oct 2007 Mag. 6.8, Indonesia Lat=-3.83, Lon=100.9, Mag=6.8

  20. Soon after 1 min the height calculation a web page is already available with the estimated height at each location.

  21. Last Mile Research: Tsunami Alerting Device Tsunami Alert Wave expected at 15:05 Tsunami Alert Wave expected at 17:35 A device to complete the alerting chain, from the sensors to the people SMS SMS New event GRID: When & Where GSM Modem

  22. Last Mile Research: Tsunami Alerting Device A first prototype is now ready Characteristics: Answers to SMS commands LAN and COM port available Stores temperature, pressure and sea level from a tidal wave GPS Alarm and loudspeaker Dimensions 1 m x 0.70 m Testing phase to setup the command programme foreseen in Portugal in 2009 GSM antenna Temperature Pressure GPS antenna Tidal Sea level GSM SIM LAN and COM ports

  23. A web status page will allow to know position and displayed current messages of each device A first prototype will be installed for testing in Cascais (PT) at beginning of 2009

  24. Conclusions (1/2) • State of the art of TEWS demands highly technological and very expensive systems, which must be efficient and reliable if they are to be effective in preparedness and response • Ocean wide, National or Local EWS need to improve or maintain efficiency • reduce delays in chain detection>analysis>alerting • reduction of false alerts • Reach the right people • Complete the last mile: i.e. timely transmit alerting messages to appropriate stake-holders • International cooperation is essential • One single nation cannot cope with such a complex arrangement: • “My seismic network” will save life in your country or • “Your sea level measurements” can confirm alerting to my country • Agreements with data providers can notably reduce un-necessary delays

  25. Conclusions (2/2) • Modelling networks can enhance the understanding of the phenomena and help to build and retain capacity • Exercises and round-robin activities to test analytical capabilities • Exchange of information on detailed bathymetry • Workshops and training • Sustainability : • can a system be kept efficient and reliable for years w/o being used or barely used?

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