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Assessment of Potential Improvements in Large-Scale Low Wind Speed Technology

Assessment of Potential Improvements in Large-Scale Low Wind Speed Technology. Joseph Cohen Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC 1700 Rockville Pike, Suite 550 Rockville, Maryland 20852 USA jcohen@perihq.com (301) 468-8416. Global WINDPOWER 2004, Chicago, Illinois March 29, 2004.

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Assessment of Potential Improvements in Large-Scale Low Wind Speed Technology

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  1. Assessment of Potential Improvements in Large-Scale Low Wind Speed Technology Joseph Cohen Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC 1700 Rockville Pike, Suite 550 Rockville, Maryland 20852 USA jcohen@perihq.com (301) 468-8416 Global WINDPOWER 2004, Chicago, Illinois March 29, 2004

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Under Subcontract To: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NWTC NWTC Staff Paul Migliore Alan Laxson Mike Robinson Bob Thresher Scott Schreck Paul Veers (Sandia National Laboratories) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Project Supported By: Technical Inputs:

  3. TECHOLOGY PATHWAYS ANALYSIS Analysis Process Characterize Reference Step 1: Characterize a set of cost and performance parameters for a composite, reference turbine Step 2: Identify a “menu” of Technology Improvement Opportunities (TIOs) that could lead to this improvement Identify TIOs Estimate TIO Effects Step 3: Estimate the range of potential change in cost, performance, reliability, and O&M for each TIO category Perform Analysis Step 4: Run these through a turbine systems model (the “Pathways Model”) to assess impact on cost of energy Step 5: Produce a curve of COE versus likelihood of achieving it. Review Results

  4. CHARACTERIZE REFERENCE TURBINE • Nominal Description of Reference Turbine: • 1.5 MW • 70 m rotor diameter • 65 m Hub Height • Upwind, 3-blade; Variable pitch • Variable speed • Composite of available technologies – based primarily on (2002) WindPACT studies and commercial/market data

  5. ANALYSIS METRICS • Overall evaluation metric - Levelized Cost of Energy (COE), which requires the following input variables: • Turbine Capital Cost (TCC) • Balance of Station Cost (BOS) • Levelized Replacement Cost (LRC) • Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost (O&M) • Net Annual Energy Production (AEP) • ISSUE: How to choose for “leading edge” technology, 100 MW plant, “favorable installation & maintenance conditions” consistent with large areas of class 4 winds, i.e., relatively flat land, easy access, no soil issues

  6. REFERENCE WIND PLANT CHARACTERISTICS

  7. INPUT DATA ARE DISTRIBUTIONS O&M Cost Turbine Capital Cost Data Sources For All Inputs NREL/Sandia staff, WindPACT studies, Next Generation Turbine project, LWST proposals, in-house knowledge, etc. NREL/Sandia staff, WindPACT studies, Next Generation Turbine project, LWST proposals, in-house knowledge, etc.

  8. REFERENCE COE • In constant end-of-2002 dollars • Class 4 winds (13 mph average at 10 m) • Assumes financing structures typical of GenCos (i.e., balance sheet financing) • Detailed cash flow model used to calculate COE using assumptions for taxes, insurance, depreciation, cost of capital, financing fees, and construction financing • Caveat – uses a relatively high required rate of return compared to current market rates Levelized Cost of Energy of Reference (2002) Turbine: 4.8 cents/kWh

  9. BE CAREFUL – COE IS NOT MARKET PRICE • Constant dollars (Market uses Current) • Varies, but typically 0.5 to 1+ cent/kWh • PTC (Not included in analysis) • Varies, but typically above 1 cent/kWh • Year Dollars (analysis uses 2002) • Range of resource in each wind power class • Overnight (no costs during construction) • Typically $50/kW or more

  10. TECNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Advanced (Enlarged) Rotor TIOs • Advanced materials • Changed/improved structural/aero design • Active controls • Passive controls • Higher tip speed ratios/lower acoustics • Site-Specific Design/Reduced Design Margin TIOs • Improved definition of site characteristics • Design load tailoring • Micrositing • Favorable wind speed distributions and shear • Manufacturing TIOs • Manufacturing methods • Lower margins • Manufacturing markups • New Drive Train Concept TIOs • Permanent magnet generator • Innovative mechanical drives • Advanced Power Electronics TIOs • Incorporation of improved PE components • Advanced circuit topology Learning Curve Effects Market–driven cost reductions • Advanced Tower TIOs • New Materials • Innovative structures • Advanced foundations • Self-erecting designs • Reduced Energy Losses and Increased Availability TIOs • Health monitoring (SCADA, etc.) • Blade soiling mitigation • Extended scheduled maintenance

  11. TIO’s POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT(Improvement from reference, in %) (Initial Analysis for 2003; Subject To Extensive Update in 2004) Capital Costs Annual Energy Production O&M Costs Reliability Probabilityof Success* -30 -20 -10 +10 +20 +30 +40 70 70 - * Advanced (Enlarged) Rotor TIOs 70 - - * Manufacturing TIOs - 65 - * Reduced Energy Losses and Increased Availability TIOs 80 80 - - Advanced Tower TIOs 80 70 - * Site-Specific Design/Reduced Design Margin TIOs 80 80 80 80 New Drive Train Concept TIOs 100 100 - - Advanced Power Electronics TIOs 100 Learning Curve Effects *High Probability of Success Case *TBD

  12. WIND TECHNOLOGIES PATHWAYS MODEL(A Monte-Carlo Analysis Tool) Total System Capital Costs Annual EnergyProduction O&M Costs Reliability Total System Aggregated Potential for Improvement (%) Probabilityof Success -40 -30 -20 -10 +10 +20 +30 +40 -30 -20 -10 +10 +20 +30 +40 70 70 - * Advanced (Enlarged) Rotor TIOs Manufacturing TIOs 70 - - * - 65 - * Reduced Energy Losses and Increased Availability TIOs 80 80 - - Advanced Tower TIOs Total System Cost of Energy 80 70 - * Site-Specific Design/Reduced Design Margin TIOs Potential for COE Reduction (%) 80 80 80 80 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 New Drive Train Concept TIOs 100 100 - - Advanced Power Electronics TIOs 100 Learning Curve Effects *TBD 3 cents/kWh at 60% Confidence Level ( subject to revision)

  13. MEAN IMPACTS ON COE INPUTS

  14. IMPACT OF TIOs ON ELEMENTS OF COE Energy Production O&M Cost Reliability Large Moderate Small Cost TIO Categories Advanced (Enlarged) Rotor Advanced materials Changed/improved structural/aero design Active controls Passive controls Higher tip speed ratios/lower acoustics Manufacturing Manufacturing methods Lower margins Manufacturing markups Reduced Energy Losses and Increased Availability Health monitoring (SCADA, etc.) Blade soiling mitigation Extended scheduled maintenance Advanced Tower New Materials Innovative structures Advanced foundations Self-erecting designs Site-Specific Design/Reduced Design Margin Improved definition of site characteristics Design load tailoring Micrositing Favorable wind speed distributions and shear New Drive Train Concepts Permanent magnet generator Innovative mechanical drives Advanced Power Electronics Incorporation of improved PE components Advanced circuit topology Learning Curve Effects Market-driven cost reductions

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