1 / 20

Impact of Future Growth in Nevada Dairies on Agricultural Price Forecast

Explore the impact of future growth in Nevada dairies on agricultural price forecast, including factors such as global economy, technology, policies, and water shortage.

hannahw
Download Presentation

Impact of Future Growth in Nevada Dairies on Agricultural Price Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Agricultural Price ForecastUpdate on Impact of Future Growth in Nevada DairiesFallon, NevadaMay 22, 2014 Michael Helmar mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development

  2. Meeting the Needs of the New Plant Nevada dairy Sources: USDA, UCED

  3. FAPRI Baseline • Major factors in the outlook • Global economy, political environment • Global ag supply/demand balance • Agricultural policies • Energy needs and policies • Technology/productivity

  4. Emerging Economies Drive Global Growth Real GDP, % change Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

  5. Individual Markets Move Differently Exchange rate index, 2005=100 Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight

  6. Interest Rates Could Spur Investment Interest rates, % Sources: IFS, IHS Global Insight forecast

  7. Improved Supplies Ease Crop Prices Sources: USDA, FAPRI

  8. Milk Prices Will Reflect Feed Costs U.S. milk prices Sources: USDA, FAPRI-MU

  9. U.S. dairy exports, $mil Growth Opportunity for Dairy Industry Source: International Trade Administration

  10. Impacting the Nevada Price Outlook • Major factors in the outlook for 2014 • Continuing drought • Water storage • Range and pasture conditions • Hay acreage • Fallon WMP plant and dairy herd expansion • Fire season • California

  11. Weather, WMP Plant Influence Hay Outlook Nevada forage prices Sources: USDA, UCED

  12. Drought Reduces Irrigated Acres, Number of Cuttings Nevada hay acreage, ths Source: USDA

  13. California Losing Alfalfa Acres California hay acreage, ths Source: USDA

  14. Worst Start in Years Nevada range condition, 0=Very Poor, 25=Poor, 50=Fair, 75=Good, 100=Excellent Sources: USDA, UCED

  15. Milk Prices Start High, Will Fall With Feed Costs All-milk price, $/cwt Source: USDA, FAPRI

  16. Different End Use, Different Price Nevada milk price, $/cwt Source: Nevada Dairy Commission

  17. Profitability Expected to Return in 2014 Nevada dairy, $/cwt of milk sold Sources: USDA, UCED

  18. Meeting the Needs of the New Plant Nevada dairy Sources: USDA, UCED

  19. Wrap-Up: Mixed Bag • Global economy strengthening • Feed costs are declining • So far, milk prices are cooperating • California a major market for Nevada • Multi-year drought makes water shortage more acute this year • Dairy demand will boost hay needs • Range conditions might not be adequate

  20. Contact Information This presentation can be accessed on the University Center for Economic Development website at: http://www.unr.edu/business/research-and-outreach/uced/food-and-agricultural-policy-research-institute-(fapri) For more information or questions regarding this outlook please contact Mike Helmar at:Mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu

More Related