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Y376 IPE: Oil Politics

Slideshow about Y376 IPE: Oil Politics by Jeffrey Hart

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Y376 IPE: Oil Politics

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  1. Ipe13 Y376 IPE: Oil Politics October 15, 2009

  2. What Role Did Energy Politics Play in September 11? In… <ul><li>Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Central Asia </li></ul><ul><li>The Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>The Rest of the World </li></ul> What Role Did Energy Politics Play in September 11? In… <ul><li>Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Central Asia </li></ul><ul><li>The Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>The Rest of the World </li></ul>

  3. Afghanistan <ul><li>Afghanistan itself has few exportable energy resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Its main value from an energy standpoint stems from the fact that it offers a route for Caspian energy to the sea via Pakistan. </li></ul> Afghanistan <ul><li>Afghanistan itself has few exportable energy resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Its main value from an energy standpoint stems from the fact that it offers a route for Caspian energy to the sea via Pakistan. </li></ul>

  4. <ul><li>There are large deposits of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea region. </li></ul><ul><li>The main problem is getting these resources to markets. </li></ul><ul><li>Pipelines are required to service the large markets in North America, Europe, and E. Asia. </li></ul> <ul><li>There are large deposits of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea region. </li></ul><ul><li>The main problem is getting these resources to markets. </li></ul><ul><li>Pipelines are required to service the large markets in North America, Europe, and E. Asia. </li></ul>

  5. Two Pipelines in Greater Detail Main participants in these two pipelines: Tengiz to Novorossiysk Russian Federation 24% Repub. Of Kazakhstan 19% Sultanate of Oman 7% Chevron 15% LUKARCO 12.5% Rosneft/Shell 7.5% Mobil 7.5% Agip 2% Turkmenistan to Pakistan: Unocal, Gazprom, Hyundai, Itochu, Delta Oil (Saudi Arabia) Two Pipelines in Greater Detail Main participants in these two pipelines: Tengiz to Novorossiysk Russian Federation 24% Repub. Of Kazakhstan 19% Sultanate of Oman 7% Chevron 15% LUKARCO 12.5% Rosneft/Shell 7.5% Mobil 7.5% Agip 2% Turkmenistan to Pakistan: Unocal, Gazprom, Hyundai, Itochu, Delta Oil (Saudi Arabia)

  6. What is the Role of Saudi Arabia within OPEC? <ul><li>It is the largest single supplier of oil. </li></ul><ul><li>The small Saudi population permits them the luxury of varying the amount of oil that they sell (thereby controlling prices): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When they want the price to increase they sell less </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When they want the price to decrease they sell more </li></ul></ul> What is the Role of Saudi Arabia within OPEC? <ul><li>It is the largest single supplier of oil. </li></ul><ul><li>The small Saudi population permits them the luxury of varying the amount of oil that they sell (thereby controlling prices): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When they want the price to increase they sell less </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When they want the price to decrease they sell more </li></ul></ul>

  7. Figure 9-10. Saudi Export Revenues and Foreign Currency Reserves, 1960-2005, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Development Indicators 2007 ; and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report , Monetary and Banking Statistics . Figure 9-10. Saudi Export Revenues and Foreign Currency Reserves, 1960-2005, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Development Indicators 2007 ; and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report , Monetary and Banking Statistics .

  8. This Puts the United States in a Strange Position <ul><li>The U.S. wants the price of oil to be low, and it views the Saudis as a moderates within OPEC. </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabian donors funded the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan and many of the Islamic schools that were the recruiting grounds for both Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. </li></ul> This Puts the United States in a Strange Position <ul><li>The U.S. wants the price of oil to be low, and it views the Saudis as a moderates within OPEC. </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabian donors funded the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan and many of the Islamic schools that were the recruiting grounds for both Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. </li></ul>

  9. The Three Periods Period Dates Type of Governance Bretton Woods 1945-1971 Hegemonic Interdependence 1971-1989 Collective Globalization 1989-present Global The Three Periods Period Dates Type of Governance Bretton Woods 1945-1971 Hegemonic Interdependence 1971-1989 Collective Globalization 1989-present Global

  10. . Evolution of Subsystems Subsystems Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization North-North Creation of US-dominated regimes Floating replaces fixed exchange-rates; Major challenges to US hegemony EU expansion and the creation of Euro; the US reemerges as hegemonic North-South Bipolar competition NIEO, OPEC, increasing gaps w/in the South Rise of Asian NICs and the Washington Consensus

  11. . What Happens to Specific Regimes? Regimes Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization Monetary Fixed but adjustable rates Dirty Float Dirty Float; greater concerns about crises Trade GATT GATT challenged (even by US) WTO; rise of the anti-globalization movement Investment Few rules other than retaliation Period of nationalizations TRIMs within the WTO; but MAI fails; rise of BITs

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