Research findings for immigration border issues

1. Research findings for immigration border issues Center for Comparative Immigration Studies University of California, San Diego Edited by Michael Stefanko

2. Key Developments in Border Enforcement Policy 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act 1990 Immigration Act of 1990 1993 Operation Hold the Line; El Paso, TX 1994 Operation Gatekeeper; San Diego, CA 1995 Operation Safeguard; Nogales, AZ 1996 Operation Rio Grande; Southeast TX 2006 Secure Border Initiative Secure Fence Act Operation Jumpstart Operation Streamline (Sisco and Hicken, Chapter 2 in Four Generations, 2009)

3. Some Basic Figures • The following are from an article in press: (Hicken, Fischbein, Lisle) regarding a survey of Tlacuitapenses • Between 1992 and 2008 the number of person-hours of border agents increased by a factor of four , the annual enforcement budget increased from $1 billion to $9.5 billion • Looked at two effects: remote deterrence and physical deterrence • Unauthorized Mexican residents increased from 2.5 million in 1996 to 7 million in 2007-2010

4. More basics • Number of unauthorized immigrants has decreased significantly in the current economic climate • Remote deterrence: evidence mixed – self-reported (Tlacuitapense ) intention to migrate down, but reasons cited are more gang violence and banditry than border enforcement • Physical deterrence: 9 of 10 surveyed succeeded ; clandestine entry through ports of entry more expensive but safer than through deserts

5. Predictors of Intent to Migrate Robust predictors: male, previous migration, no children, family in US

6. Physical Deterrence • Apprehended 44 percent of the time between 2002 and 2010 • Over 90 percent eventually succeed in crossing • Factors predicting success (from a regression analysis): previous migration experience, month crossed (Oct-Dec) , running out of money • Non-significant factors: gender, location, port of entry or not, with a coyote • Major effect: increases in line-watch hours is matched by increases in coyote fees (more demand for coyote services)

7. Methods of Entry • Legal ports of entry: safer, less likely to be apprehended (averaged of 0.5 times versus 0.9 times), more expensive (average fee $3,314 – N=17, versus average coyote fee of $1,791 – N= 37 for desert/mountains • Family in US can fund crossings at ports of entry • For desert/mountains: More concern about Mother Nature and bandits than fence or Border Patrol/National Guard • 80 percent of those surveyed in Tlacuitapa knew someone who had died in a border crossing

8. Change in Migration Pattern • Increased enforcement is leading to longer stays in the US • Longer stays means male heads of household are bringing dependents to US sooner • US-born children and wives are strong supporters of staying permanently • More than one-third of those surveyed (1 in 10 of undocumented) owned property in the US • Erratic enforcement of interior policies (such as against businesses) does not effect underlining incentive structure for migrating