1 / 16

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power. Mark Howells, Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH- dESA ) Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN. division of Energy Systems Analysis Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden. Contents.

Download Presentation

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power Mark Howells, Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH-dESA) Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN

  2. division of Energy Systems AnalysisRoyal Institute of Technology, Sweden

  3. Contents • Foundations of global energy system shifting • Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries • Retreat from nuclear in some others growth in others • Changing global energy map likely to have significant implications for competiveness & geopolitics • In a resource constrained world, nuclear has a key role to play

  4. A United States oil & gas transformation US oil & gas production Source: World Energy Outlook mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 Conventional gas 10 Unconventional oil 5 Conventional oil 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States

  5. De-coupling of regional gas prices 20 Source: World Energy Outlook 18 $2012/MBtu 16 Japan (LNG import) 14 12 Europe (German import) 10 8 6 4 US (Henry Hub) 2 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 At its lowest level in 2012, natural gas in the United States tradedat around one-fifth of import prices in Europe & one-eighth of those in Japan

  6. A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, 2010-2035 Source: World Energy Outlook Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 TWh TWh Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity

  7. Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, 2035 Source: World Energy Outlook cents/kWh 25 20 2011 OECD average 15 10 2011 Non-OECD average 5 China United States European Union Japan Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persistingin the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States

  8. Insights from an Integrated Global CLEWS** Model Aim: A flexible model with large solution space based on realistic projections. • Demand projections for heat and electricity based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – assumes no new policy action and continuance of current code of practice. • Renewable energy technologies allowed (not forced) to come in at a rate corresponding to IEA ETP 2oC scenario – non-hydro or biomass RE increase 25fold by 2050, compared to 2009. • CO2 limit based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – did not want to limit the system. • Yield improvement of land and food production based on FAO projections – food demand connected with population projections **CLEWs – Climate Land Energy Water strategies model Developed by UNDESA and KTH-dESA

  9. Total Power Generation Global CLEWs model

  10. CO2 Tax Scenario • Additional tax on emissions (GHG as CO2-equivalent) of: • Linear increase from 1 to 15 $/tCO2EQ in years 2016-2030 • Linear increase from 15 to 25 $/tCO2EQ in years 2031-2050 • Land use emissions were approximated with a capital cost per land area Global CLEWs model

  11. Power with CO2 tax • Main effects • Less coal • More biomass, gas and nuclear power • Renewables already at maximum market penetration

  12. Land Limitation Scenario • Land use change is responsible for over 30% of global CO2 emissions and it affects biodiversity, ecosystem services etc. • Total land capacity was restricted to current area (no area exchange between climate zones possible) • This meant a necessary intensification of agricultural production (more fertiliser and irrigation) FAO. (2011). LOOKING AHEAD IN WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE: Perspectives to 2050. (P. Conforti, Ed.). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Global CLEWs model

  13. Power with Land Limitation and CO2 tax • Main effects • Biomass is more expensive or not available • Nuclear is only remaining low-emission power technology • Penetration rates for new technologies would need to be adapted • Other factors (like biomass from waste) are not considered

  14. Nuclear Share Comparison Global CLEWs model

  15. Conclusions • Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives • Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineenergy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances • Shifting away from or towards nuclear can have significant implications for a country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives • In a resource constrained world, nuclear can be an attractive option

  16. Acknowledgements IEA, World Energy outlookUNDESA, GSDR

More Related