JROTC and Regular Army Accessions 12 March 2019 BDE Chief & DAI Workshop

1. JROTC and Regular Army Accessions12March 2019BDE Chief & DAI Workshop

2. JROTC Impacts Location of JROTC Programs Percentage of Schools withJROTCPrograms Regular Army (RA) Enlistments 21% NoJROTC 89% NoJROTC 54% JROTC 11% 13% 9% 3% • JROTC program presence in a High School significantly increases RAenlistments • 11% (3.5K) of High Schools have JROTC programs • All Service JROTC schoolsaccount for 46% of RA enlistments among high schoolgraduates • Students at schools offering JROTC are twice as likely to enlist in the RA than students at schools withoutJROTC** Enlistment Rate Per 1,000Seniors* 18.4 20.9 9.5 No JROTC Army JROTC Other Service JROTC *Officer accessions programs notincluded **Findings reviewed by analysts from USAREC and HRC Students at Schools Offering JROTC are over 2x as Likely to Enlist

3. Revision of the “Question” • OLD QUESTION: What “lift” do we get from participation in JROTC? • Extremely difficult to answer this quantitatively – • JROTC does not have an individual participant database • Quantitatively estimated using AdvRankRsn Code for JROTC participation • ‘1’: Completed 1 or 2 years as a member of JROTC • ‘2’: Completed 3 or more years as a member of JROTC • ‘N’: Completed 2 or more years as a member of JROTC • This excluded those with not “enough” JROTC participation for AdvRank AND those with “better” reasons for AdvRank (ie College hours) • Some older studies (2005 and earlier) used NCES High School and Beyond datasets to determine participation in JROTC • NEW QUESTION: What “lift” do we get from schools that have JROTC? • This is a broader question that does not rely on knowledge of individual participation in JROTC • Acknowledges that the existence of a JROTC program at the high school influences the rest of the student body that does not participate in the program

4. JROTC Army Enlistment ROI Methodology Accessions Datawarehouse (DWH) Education History FY16-18 Grad Enlistments DWH School Code Single File for Schools containing: HS Senior Enrollments, US Army Enlistments, and JROTC Identifier Schools Schools Reference Table Containing All 3 Code Sets Nat’l Center for Education Statistics (NCES) NCESSchool Code 2016 Directory/Enrollments (Public & Private) Aggregate Enrollments and Enlistments by JROTC Type Service Data Provided to USACC Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps JROTC School Code Sep ‘18 All-Service JROTC Program Locations (Annual Enlistments per 1000 Seniors)

5. USAREC/HRC Peer Analyst Review • Conducted 16 Jan 2019 • Reviewed and approved Methodology • Discussion of Accessions vs Contracts; USAREC expressed desire to continue to use contract data, group concurred • Discussion and adjustment to inclusion criteria • Initial analysis required a high school graduation date in the file; led to large data loss (~32k records, ~16%) from the analysis up front • Revised criteria to last High School attended • Now ~13k RA enlistments are not included (~7%) • Most not included have education higher than HS; include college attended rather than HS

6. Adjusted Summary Output(Inclusion based on last HS Attended) Ratio of Army JROTC to No JROTC = 26.2/12.1 =2.17 Still “Twice As Likely” 10.1% of Schools have JROTC 45.2% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC If we add in the 6,600 contracts not matched to NCES school to the “no JROTC” category, the % drops to 43.6%

7. Yeah, but…. • Analysis still includes • Private Schools …. And we know JROTC programs are more likely to be at public schools • DoDEA Schools …. And we know that military kids go to those so they’re more pre-disposed to military service • Alternative Schools/Juvenile Detention Centers, etc….And we know those kids are less likely to qualify for military service • Small schools that wouldn’t qualify for JROTC programs …. So you’re padding the populations at non-JROTC schools to get lower penetration rates • Career Centers …. So you’re counting JROTC contracts at schools that report 0 Seniors to pad the JROTC school contracts for higher penetration rates at JROTC schools

8. Adjusted Summary Output(Inclusion based on last HS Attended, Public Schools >20 Srs only) 31.6% of HS Srs have access to JROTC 17.5% of Public Schools have JROTC 45.7% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC The “Twice As Likely” insight holds true in the most restricted analysis 13.6% of HS Srs have access to Army JROTC 8.5% of Public Schools have Army JROTC 21.0% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC

9. Next Steps • Examine effects of attributes in addition to JROTC program: • Distance to military installation • Socio-economics (% on free/reduced lunch as proxy) • Diversity of school population (% Minority) • Distance to recruiting station • Veteran population estimate for the school district • Urbanicity (using Census Bureau “urban locale” code for the school) • Include impact on ROTC Nat’l Scholarship Applications

10. Regular Army Contracts from Urban Locations

11. Impact in Urban Areas Next step: Regional / Focus Market level analysis

12. Discussion