Participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective

1. Participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective Linda Croxford and David Raffe University of Edinburgh Changing Inequalities and Access to a Differentiated HE System Seminar at the University of Edinburgh, 14 June 2013

2. Participation in full-time higher education 1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective Widening participation (WP) • As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE? Home-international differences and devolution • Do trends in participation differ across the UK? • Are these associated with differences in tuition fees following devolution? Cross-border flows • Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)? Success rates • How “fair” is the admissions process?

3. Widening participation (WP)

5. As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE? • This was a period of expansion in UK HE: the number of UK-domiciled entrants rose by 53% • The proportion of ethnic minority entrants increased • The social class composition of entrants did not change much over the period

6. Home-international differences and devolution

7. Devolution: tuition fees • 1998 an up-front annual fee of £1,000 was introduced across the UK • 2000 – Scotland replaced fees by a smaller ‘graduate endowment’ (deferred) • 2006 –England & N Ireland increased fees to £3000 (deferred) - accompanied by ‘fair access’ measures. • 2007 –Wales - increased fee to £3000, but offset for Welsh students by extra student grant • 2007 –Scotland- graduate endowment abolished • 2010 – Wales –extra student grant abolished

10. Are there different trends in participation across the UK? • Working class-participation is highest in Northern Ireland and lowest in Scotland • The introduction of fees did not reduce working-class access to HE – and in Scotland their abolition did not increase it. • Ethnic minority participation has increased most in London and (to a lesser extent) in the rest of England

11. Cross-border flows

13. Cross-border flows • Declining proportion of UK students studying in another home country (home-country trend more than home-region trend) • English and Scottish-domiciled students are least likely to enter RUK institutions • Even in 2010 around one third of new students from Wales and N Ireland studied outside their home country • The outflow of students from Wales was matched by an even larger inflow from the rest of the UK • Most cross-border flows either by English students or to English institutions • Decline in flow of N Ireland students to Scotland – but flow to English HEIs remained steady

14. Factors associated with RUK applications in 2010

15. Wales: social impact of fee differentials

16. Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)? • Those applying and entering RUK were most likely to be well-qualified middle-class students seeking places at Russell Group universities • But many less-qualified students from N Ireland (and Wales) go to post-92 universities in England • Ethnic minority students from Scotland, N Ireland and Wales more likely to go to England to study • But ethnic minority students from England more likely to remain in England • Fee differentials for Welsh students in 2006-8 did not reduce working-class participation

17. Success rates

19. Fair admissions? (results of statistical models of entry to any HE institution) • Prior qualifications are main predictor of success • Applicants from managerial & professional classes had higher success rates – even after controlling for prior qualifications • Ethnic minorities more successful than white applicants • Applicants from independent schools less successful – and from FE Colleges more successful • Effects of 3 and 4 above explained by selectivity of institutions applied to (analysis of entry to pre-1992 institutions shows opposite effects)

20. Home country differences in success rates (ie interactions) • None of the social class effects differed between home countries • Scottish applicants from independent schools were more likely to gain an HEI place (but no difference in entry to pre-1992 university) • N Irish and Scottish applicants from FE Colleges were more likely to gain an HEI place • Ethnic minority students from Scotland were less likely to gain an HEI place

21. Finally This study shows: • The persistence of social inequalities in participation in HE; • Similarity in inequalities between home countries – but compositional differences; • No effect on inequalities of country differences in tuition fees; • Slight decline in cross-border flows – but a complex pattern