1 / 13

Event Driven Verification

Event Driven Verification. By Gerry Claycomb. Outline. What is it? Why we need it? How to do it? Results. What Is It?. Mini Review of An IFR Event - Synoptic Conditions Prior To and During Event - Did Local Effects Play A Role? Near-Real Time Verification Of An Event

helena
Download Presentation

Event Driven Verification

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Event Driven Verification By Gerry Claycomb

  2. Outline • What is it? • Why we need it? • How to do it? • Results

  3. What Is It? • Mini Review of An IFR Event - Synoptic Conditions Prior To and During Event - Did Local Effects Play A Role? • Near-Real Time Verification Of An Event - Analogous To Getting Real Time Verification for Convective Warnings • Similar Synoptic Situations In The Future Will Cause Similar IFR Events

  4. Why We Need It? • Congress Mandated GPRA Goals of 63% POD and 44% FAR for IFR for FY2008 • Can Make Weekly Course Corrections To TAFs. Almost Daily • Focuses Aviation Forecasters To Become Better on Next Event • Gives Forecasters An Idea of MOS Trends As Well As What Role Local Effects Play In Near-Real time

  5. Why We Need It? • Ultimately To Provide A Better Product To Our Aviation Customers - We Need Better Numbers To Stay In The Aviation Business • Our Customers May Go Elsewhere If We Do Not Improve - Private Forecasting Companies - NWS Out Of Aviation Forecasting

  6. How To Do It? • Aviation Stats On Demand Are Available 2 Days After An Event. SOD Website: http://140.90.19.120/services/public/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fTAF%2frequest.aspx • Doesn’t Have to Be Anything Too In-Depth • Takes AFP here at SGF 15-20 Minutes To Do A Write-up • Your Imagination Is The Limit

  7. Example All,    Another great performance was turned in for the Sunday/Monday event. Please see attached. MAV MOS was way too slow bringing in the IFR (roughly 9 hours too slow from what I remember). Didn't have anything for JLN.  A tool to possibly use is the SREF. To access: 1. Volume Browser: Plan View, 2. Field: Ensemble, 3. SREF Probabilities. You can look at probabilities for Cigs LT 3000, 1000 and 500 feet as well as Vsbys LT 3 miles and 1 mile. SREF was about 6 hours faster over MAV MOS in bringing in IFR conditions to SGF and even hit JLN. Here are our scores: Office IFR POD: 77% MOS POD: 66% Office IFR FAR: 22% MOS FAR: 26%

  8. Example (Cont’d) For the month (1 Nov-26 Nov), we have increased our IFR POD/FAR to 71%/26% vs MAV POD/FAR 50%/31% respectively. Outstanding!    Conditional climo did hint at IFR conditions as well and I'd recommend looking at it when you're getting within the 6-12 hour time frame for an event and/or already in low conditions. We have yet another system for the weekend (Friday night through Sunday afternoon) that we can make some more headway on. Have those southeast winds again from about 03Z Saturday through 12Z Saturday morning. Watch those. As soon as our winds shifted Sunday from the southeast to north, we tanked.  Something to think about. Anyway, good job all and good luck this weekend. Thanks all, Gerry

  9. Example #2 All,    We had a significant and prolonged IFR event July 31st lasting close to 18 hours total for both airfields combined.  John picked up on this event prior to the event and Jason followed through on the 12Z TAFs perfectly.  This was one of those "prior evening rain to the east and northeast with winds shifting to the northeast" scenarios we saw a couple times this past month.  Great job John and Jason!  For the month, here are our stats: OFFICE IFR POD:  55.7%   MOS: 18.8% OFFICE IFR FAR:  57.3%   MOS: 43.5% OFFICE IFR CSI: .319      MOS: .164    Lots of TEMPO IFR visibilities with thunderstorms this past month.  We tried hitting those events as seen in our FAR.  Forecasting thunderstorm tracks are very difficult to say the least.  Impossible to do more than 2-3 hours out in the TAFs.  With this 31 July event though, we almost made the GPRA IFR POD goal. For the fiscal year (Oct 2007-Present), here are our stats:

  10. Example 2 (Cont’d) OFFICE IFR POD: 76.4%  MOS: 54.5% OFFICE IFR FAR: 31.3%  MOS: 39.3% OFFICE IFR CSI: .567      MOS: .403    Great numbers here folks!  Believe we have the annual GPRA goals for IFR POD (64%) and IFR FAR (43%) pretty much sewn up.  All due to your great forecasts.  Thank you! Gerry

  11. Results • IFR POD and FAR Were Stellar This Past Winter Season: SGF POD MOS POD SGF FAR MOS FAR Nov 07 71% 50% 26% 31% Dec 07 89% 78% 14% 17% Jan 08 72% 35% 34% 53% Feb 08 85% 56% 24% 36% Mar 08 73% 55% 41% 43% Apr 08 68% 49% 50% 68% May 08 73% 50% 35% 57%

  12. Results (Cont’d) • For FY08 so far (1 October 2007 to 22 August 2008): SGF IFR POD: 75.6% MOS IFR POD: 53.9% SGF IFR FAR: 32.3% MOSIFR FAR: 40.1% • Worked Well Over Summer Months, But IFR Is Minimal During This Time. - Significant Improvement Over Summer 2007 Scores

  13. Questions? • E-mail: Gerald.Claycomb@NOAA.GOV • Phone: 417-863-7884

More Related