PRESENTATION TITLE Presented by: Name Surname Directorate Date

1. Planning for our water security Presented by: Tendayi Makombe Engineer ( Water Resource Planning) email makombet@dws.gov.za Chief Directorate: Integrated Water Resource Planning Venue: Randwater Date 15 June 2016 PRESENTATION TITLE Presented by: Name Surname Directorate Date

2. Water Resource Planning : Framework

3. Population perspective • 52 million people (2013) • 14,5 million Households • Living in formal cities, traditional villages and informal settlements • 62% urban and 38% rural • Major social challenges (poverty, equity and job creation)

4. South Africa: Water Scarce Country • Water a scarce and strategic resource • Spatial and temporal challenges • Fresh water @ its limit • Mean annual rainfall • South Africa = 500mm (World = 860mm) • 65% of SA < 500mm • 21% of SA < 200mm • Climate change • Severe and prolonged droughts – 10 years • 25% - drained by perennial rivers (seasonal) • 75% - drained by seasonal to episodic rivers (event related).

5. At 98% assurance level of supply, SA’s water is constituted as follows: 77% surface resources 9% ground water 14% return flows Desalination < 1% Current water resources mix

6. Ensure water security for the country Development of strategies to reconcile water requirements with water availability Identifying and evaluating management options/projects to meet current and future water requirements Evaluating strategic water resources challenges including water quality related issues (eg acid mine drainage), developing appropriate operating rules for water supply systems, developing appropriate tools and decisions support systems, groundwater planning etc Developing resource orientated policies, strategies, programs and assessment tools Assess linkages between Climate Change and Water and plan associated actions Mainstream Water Use Efficiency Programs INTEGRATED WATER PLANNING PRIMARY FOCUS

7. PLANNING FOR Basic human needs Environmental needs Energy needs Growth and Development Ensuring equitable availability and allocation

8. Integrated Water Resource Planning is informed by: • Legislation • National Development Plan • National Spatial Development Perspective • National Water Resource Strategy • Internal Strategic Perspectives /Catchment Management Strategies • National Priorities/ President’s State of the Nation’s Address • Minister’s priorities • Interaction with Provinces (PGDSs) and municipalities (WSDPs) • Provincial and National Water Summits • Interaction with bulk water users – Municipalities, Water Boards, big industries (such as Sasol, Eskom, Mining Sector etc), agriculture • International Obligations

10. WATER RESOURCES

11. National Rainfall and Evaporation

12. 12 of 19 WMA require intervention

13. Water Management Areas and Main Water Transfers

16. International Context • Four of our main rivers are shared with 6 neighboring countries. • International basins cover 60 % of SA land area. • Contribute 45% of country's total river flow. • These areas support ± 70% of gross domestic product and similar proportion of population. • Several international inter-catchment transfers and inter-country systems have been introduced (including Lesotho Highlands Water Project). • International liaison and Partnerships • Neighboring States & SADC • AFRICA (AMCOW) • Global

17. Climate Change • South Africa is prone to various water related extreme events, including droughts, floods, • All these will be aggravated by potential climate change effects • climate change response strategy has been prepared for the water sector – currently subjected to a consultation process • Contributions are made towards SA’s negotiation position on water and climate change aspects at international level.

18. Climate Change Response Strategy for the Water Sector • A Climate Change Response Strategy for Water Sector guides the sector in its response to climate change impacts • It proposes strategic actions that are intended to build resilience and reduce vulnerability to the water related impacts of climate change • It also allocates responsibilities internally within DWS and externally in the water resources sector. • It highlights the critical role that water management and water services institutions play regarding issues such as the protection of vulnerable groups in relation to access to water through the implementation of appropriate systems and infrastructure.

19. Reconcilation strategies and climate change scenarios • Western Cape Reconciliation strategies Study (2007) • Climate Change predictions are for a decline in rainfall for this region. Along with increasing temperatures and hence evaporation, the implications for run-off and long-term assurance of supply are potentially serious. •  Orange River Reconciliation Strategy (2015) latest draft results on climate change impacts on the system yields in the Orange and Namibia Fish. We select these systems to illustrate the impact on dams on the western side  (Namibia Fish River) where the highest reduction in rainfall is expected and on the eastern side where an increase in rainfall in combination with a decrease in some areas are expected by 2060 due to climate change. See the results in the Table below.

21. SCENARIO PLANNING

22. Reconciliation Strategy “in a nutshell” What is the assurance of supply?

23. Water absolutely essential for growth and development Need for water must be anticipated and supply available when it is required Planning is thus pro-actively re-active Uncertainties Future requirements Future availability of water Assumptions and principles (1)

24. Assumptions and principles (2) Planning based on high future requirement scenarios Final implementation could be delayed if necessary Very difficult to bring forward Reduction in availability due to normal fluctuations in climate, but also due to climate change Monitoring and adjustment is crucial 24

25. Diversify the water mix to s-t-r-e-t-c-h the resource • To make sufficient water of an appropriate quality available for the socio-economic needs of the country, while still ensuring that the health of aquatic ecosystems is protected, all of the following water resources together with the benefits of WCWDM, must be harnessed effectively, particularly in already highly stressed catchments: • Development of surface water resources and transfer of water: • DWA is overseeing implementation of 151 water resource development projects, including projects carried out by TCTA & water boards. • Underinvestment in water resource infrastructure, including underinvestment by municipalities in wastewater treatment works, is continuing cause for concern. • Most large water infrastructure projects are supportive of the Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPs) implemented under leadership of the PICC.

26. Diversifying the mix …. • Acid mine drainage: • While the pollution from AMD is a significant problem, the potential increase in water availability from treated AMD offers opportunities for making additional water available to supplement traditional water resources • DW&S is currently investing in the treatment of AMD emanating from various aquifers in the Vaal River Catchment and the opportunities for doing the same for drainage from coal mines in the Witbank area and in the Olifants River Catchment, all of which is intended for re-use. • Water harvesting: • While this is intended for irrigation of food gardens to improve food sufficiency & for other productive water uses, this water may also be used for domestic purposes where communities do not have a reliable source of potable water. • Importation of water-intensive goods: • A study of the potential for crop production in neighbouring countries which shows that, in terms of physical production factors such as soils and climate, the potential is high, has been completed.

27. Groundwater development and management • Groundwater is a primary source of reliable, safe drinking water • supplies in rural areas & many towns. • Also for irrigation, mines and industries • Artificial recharge is growing in importance • Groundwater is often not recognised as a valuable resource by land-use planners & municipalities, resulting in poor coordination between groundwater development & use of land for human settlements and other purposes

28. Water re-use • Public perceptions & opinions vary on the topic of water re-use, specifically as it relates to direct potable water re-use. • Public perceptions are strongly informed by the general awareness of poor o & m and performance of municipal WWTW • Poses a significant challenge to building public acceptance of direct water re-use • Performance of municipal wastewater and effluent treatment plants nationwide will have to be improved to meet high standards, resulting in consistently good quality discharges to the environment before direct water re-use can be placed on the national water supply agenda.

29. Desalination of seawater • Implementation can render return flows, treated effluents & brackish groundwater fit for use by a wide range of water users. • Technologies typically do not only remove salts from water, but also a spectrum of other pollutants such as metals, nutrients and organics. • Major cities & smaller towns located along the coast may also require desalinated sea water to meet their future water supply needs.

30. Cost of future supplies (URV)

31. NSDP: Key demand centres

32. Reconciliation Strategies Development Progress

33. Supply water to 60% of economy, 45% of population Mines and industries on Eastern Mpumalanga Highveld Bulk of Eskom’s coal fired power stations Gauteng NW and FS goldfields Kimberley Large irrigation schemes System in deficit due to unlawful use (masked by full dams) Vaal River System

35. Vaal River System: 1940

36. Integrated Vaal River System – Schematic Diagram 36

37. Reconciliation Scenario High Water Requirement Scenario with Water Conservation and Demand Management & Re-use Polihali Dam Yield AMD reuse Yield increases due to removal of dilution releases System Yield Desalinate AMD First transfer from LHWP Phase II 37

38. Integrated Vaal River Strategy: Securing Water for the Future Eradicate unlawful irrigation, notably in the upper Vaal river area Implement Water Conservation/Water Demand Management with focus on loss management (15% must be saved) Treat and use effluent, starting with desalination of acid mine water drainage Implement the next water supply augmentation scheme

39. NO if : Water Conservation/ Water Demand Management, effluent reuse, curbing of unlawful use promotion of groundwater use curbing of deteriorating water quality timely decisions on appropriate investments This is being confirmed by the country-wide water reconciliation studies ( completed, being conducted ,updated) Is RSA sliding into a water crisis situation?

40. Thank you • QUESTIONS?