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Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan

Polling Performance and Campaign Coverage in the 2016 Presidential Election in the United States. Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan. INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016. Organization of the Talk.

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Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan

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  1. Polling Performance and Campaign Coverage in the 2016 Presidential Election in the United States Michael W. TraugottCenter for Political StudiesUniversity of Michigan INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  2. Organization of the Talk Checking on the performance of the polls: Evaluating national and state polls Checking on the performance of modelers Checking on the performance of journalists Can we reasonably expect to do better? INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  3. Current State of the Vote* 2012 2016 Difference Obama/Clinton 65.9 65.3 - .7 Romney/Trump 60.9 62.7 1.6 Other 1.9 7.9 6.0 * Millions of votes Voter Turnout 58.6% 58.8% INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  4. Relative Party Vote in Recent Elections INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  5. Another Way to Look at the Vote Out of 231,556,622 voting eligible Americans Hillary Clinton 28.2% Donald Trump 27.1% Others, unvoted 3.4% DID NOT VOTE 41.3% INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  6. Media in the 2016 Campaign: News INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  7. Errors in the National Polls INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  8. Errors in the State Polls INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  9. Sources of Errors in Samples Sample frames and designs Non-response bias Weighting algorithms INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  10. Variations in Sample Composition Bloomberg Poll Decoder 11/16/16 INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  11. Explanations for Sample Variation “Shy Trump voters” – no evidence Nonresponse bias Relative enthusiasm of supporters Non-college educated males Weighting issues (reference groups) First time voters for Trump Urban-rural turnout differentials INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  12. Problems with Likely Voter Models What is the “reference” model or election? What does it mean to have a “change” election? What about shifting campaign strategies and techniques? INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  13. 2012 Presidential Resultin 9 Battleground States Economic Dinner Club November 21, 2016

  14. Estimation Errors in the 2012 Battleground States INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  15. 2016 Presidential Resultsin 11 Battleground States Economic Dinner Club November 21, 2016

  16. Estimation Errors in the 2016 Battleground States INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  17. Turnout and Trump Support INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  18. How the Media Got It Wrong INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  19. How the Media Got It Wrong Failure to distinguish consistently between the popular vote and Electoral College totals Failure to explain assumptions used by pollsters and modelers Failure to distinguish between odds and chances of winning Severe “confirmation bias” INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  20. Was It the Polls or the Modelers? INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  21. What Do the Exit Polls Tell Us? pp pp pp pp pp pp INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  22. Presidential Vote and Party Identification INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  23. Time of Presidential Vote Decision INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  24. Important Candidate Qualities INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

  25. What’s Needed Going Forward Continued emphasis on transparency from pollsters and modelers Production of multiple estimates based on differential turnout parameters More and better training of journalists Get polls back to serving the analysis function at which they excel, less horse race INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

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