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Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1):

Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1):. Levi Brekke & David Raff (Reclamation, TSC) R&D Scoping and Framing Workshop: R&D Roadmap – Managing Western Water as Climate Changes Denver, CO February 20-21, 2008. Yesterday to Today.

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Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1):

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  1. Overview, Discussion, and Prioritization of Science, Data, and Information Gaps (Handout 1): Levi Brekke & David Raff (Reclamation, TSC) R&D Scoping and Framing Workshop: R&D Roadmap – Managing Western Water as Climate Changes Denver, CO February 20-21, 2008

  2. Yesterday to Today • Gap Assessment: Anecdotal to Compartmental • Many timescales to Long Term (> 5 years) • Manifestation of vetting process through CCAWWG • Handout Gaps are culmination of project experiences (LC EIS, MP, PN) and CCAWWG input.

  3. Reclamation Decision Types

  4. Conceptual rule curve Rule Curve Flood Control Pool Conservation Pool

  5. Scoping Questions and Answers leading to an Analytical Approach for Long-Term Planning Processes Requiring Projected Information

  6. Generalized Analytical Sequence and Elements involved with relating projected Climate Change Information in Decisions

  7. 1. Summarize Literature • Description • explain climate change relevance to project • summarize state of science, impacts studies, current projections • Current Capabilities • examples • Long Form (LC/UC Coord. Ops. EIS, App. U) • Short Form (PN Yakima Storage, draft PR/EIS)

  8. 1. Summarize Literature • Gaps (1.1) Clearinghouse, Scientific Literature (1.2) Region-specific Literature Summaries for GP, LC*, MP, PN, UC* • Exception: LC/UC Colorado River Basin

  9. 2. Obtain Climate Projections Data • Description • focus on contemporary information • spatially downscaled, with model biases understood or accounted for • Current Capabilities • Reclamation-LLNL-SCU archive • statistically downscaled WCRP CMIP3 projections • http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/

  10. 2. Obtain Climate Projections Data • Gaps (2.1) Downscaled data at finer resolutions (space and/or time) and different variables (2.2) Downscaled data that isn’t based on “stationarity” (e.g., potentially revealed using regional climate models) (2.3) Evaluation and Verification of downscaled data

  11. 3. Translate Climate Projections Data into Planning Scenarios • Description • Decision: projections weighting or culling • Decision: projection features to represent (e.g., time-series, change in norms) • Current Capabilities • IPCC 2007 offers guidance on how to relatively regard projected conditions • peer review literature offers weighting methods based on climate model skill

  12. 3. Translate Climate Projections Data into Planning Scenarios • Gaps (3.1) Basis for weighting Emissions Paths (3.2) How to jointly consider paleoclimate, near-term climate variability, and projected climate (3.3) How to assess extreme meteorological possibilities in a changing climate

  13. 4. Assess Natural Systems Response • Description • analyze runoff, land cover, and ecosystems response related to operations response • develop “climate change” weather as inputs to such response models • Current Capabilities • Surface Water Runoff: • access to peer-review methods, several models

  14. 4. Assess Natural Systems Response • Gaps (4.1) Climate impact on groundwater and interaction with surface water (4.2) Climate impact on land cover and ecosystems (4.3) How to assess flood control rule requirements in a changing climate (4.4) How to assess extreme hydrologic possibilities related to dam safety in a changing climate (4.5) Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference

  15. 5. Assess Social Systems Response • Description • analyze water and power demands response • consider changes in flood protection values, environmental management values • assess at “aggregated” to local scale • Current Capabilities • More experience with local assessments (e.g., crop-specific water use requirements)

  16. 5. Assess Social Systems Response • Gaps (5.1) How to project social responses to that constrain operations (e.g., water demands, flood protection, environmental values) (5.2) Crop water demand response to climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes

  17. 6. Assess Operations and Dependent Resources Response • Description • Operations analyses given adjusted supplies, demands, and constraints based on results from elements 4 and 5 • Subsequent analyses: WQ, power, econ. • Current Capabilities • Some regions have experience analyzing current operations under climate change • Access to two approaches: “static” vs. “crystal-ball” operators

  18. 6. Assess Operations and Dependent Resources Response • Gaps (6.1) Experience conducting policy-search studies (e.g., “crystal-ball” operator, optimization) (6.2) How to blend “static” and “crystal-ball” operator depictions into realistic portrayal of operations unfolding under climate change (6.3) How to analyze operations impacts on climate

  19. 7. Assess and Characterize Uncertainties • Description • Uncertainties are introduced in elements 2-6 • Sources include data and methods • Current Capabilities • Reclamation has tools for conducting uncertainty analysis on an element-specific basis

  20. 7. Assess and Characterize Uncertainties • Gaps (7.1) How to assess and characterize uncertainties by element (7.2) How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements

  21. 8. Communicate Uncertainties and Incorporate into Decision-Making • Description • Packaging results and uncertainty information for non-technical audiences, decision-makers • Current Capabilities • Reclamation is experienced with communicating general planning results and uncertainties to such audiences

  22. 8. Communicate Uncertainties and Incorporate into Decision-Making • Gaps (8.1) Experience communicating uncertainties associated with climate change and its relation to Reclamation planning processes

  23. Lunch Break

  24. List of Projects and Proposals in relation to covering Gaps

  25. HANDOUT 2Ongoing Projects that Address Gaps

  26. Project II.1 Title: Literature Reviews - Climate Change Science & Regional Studies Related Gap: 1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries) Purpose: Summarizing climate change science and assessments on a region-specific basis. Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~75K (Reclamation), ~0.50yrs

  27. Project II.2 Title: Development and Comparison of Long-Term Planning Hydrologies using Alternate Climate Information Sets Related Gap: 3.2 (how to jointly incorporate paleoclimate, near-term decadal climate variability, and projected climate into these planning processes) Purpose: Illustrate how long-term hydrologic planning hydrologies differ when developed relative to different climate information sets. Project Management: L. Brekke (Reclamation), 0.75 Year, 106K (Reclamation, NOAARISA, Army Corps of Engineers)

  28. Project II.3 Title:Technology Transfer and Orientation – VIC Hydrologic Models Related Gap:4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference) Purpose:Reclamation collaborating with University of Washington (UW) to acquire VIC applications developed for Western U.S. basins. Project Management: L. Brekke (Reclamation), 0.5 Year, 43K (Reclamation)

  29. Project II.4 Title:Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Stream Flow Related Gap:4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference) Purpose: Identify and evaluate runoff modeling approach differences of NOAA-RISA CRB predictions, and involves collaboration among the four NOAA-RISAs. Project Management: R. Webb (NOAA), 1 Year, 250K (NOAA)

  30. Project II.5 Title: Hydroclimatic Index for Drought Monitoring in the Colorado River Basin Related Gap: 4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference) Purpose: Apply the Hydroclimatic Index (HI), to monitoring and predicting drought occurrence across the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Project Management: M. Haws (Reclamation), 2 Years, 75K (Reclamation, NOAA)

  31. Project II.6 Title: Exploring the use of Climate Change Information within the Dam Safety Office Comprehensive Facility Review Process Related Gap: 3.3 (Do meteorological estimates based on historical information remain valid), 4.4 (How climate change will affect storm type, duration, frequency) Purpose: Determine if and how climate change information should be incorporated into risk based assessment of hydrologic hazard to Reclamation facilities. Project Management: D. Raff, 1 Year, 125K (Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers)

  32. Project II.7 Title: Economics Of Climate Change Related Gap:1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries) Purpose:To review and summarize the available research on the economic impacts of climate change as it pertains to western water issues Project Management: S. Piper (Reclamation), 0.2 Years, 28K (Reclamation)

  33. Project II.8 Title:Past Climate Change and Groundwater Influences to Historic Streamflow Traces Related Gap: 4.1 (Climate impact on groundwater and interaction with surface water) Purpose:To investigate the consequences of using historic streamflows in flood operations by removing the effects of climate change and groundwater development from historic unregulated streamflows. Project Management: L. Stillwater (Reclamation), 0.5 Year, 35K (Reclamation)

  34. Project II.9 Title:Assessing and Reducing the Uncertainty of Predictions from Hydraulic and Hydrologic Models Related Gap:7.1 (How to assess and characterize uncertainties by element), 7.2 (How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements) Purpose:To develop a methodology and associated software to assess parameter uncertainty and its impact on the predictions of hydrologic, hydraulic, and sediment transport models. Project Management: B. Greimann (Reclamation), 2 Year, 50K (Reclamation)

  35. Project II.NEW Title:CPAPP Related Gap: Actual Project Unidentified - Input Requested Purpose: Post-Doc installed in management agency coordinated with recenarch agency Project Management: B. Udall (NOAA-RISA WWA)

  36. Project II.NEW Title:Predicting relative risk of invasion by saltcedar and mud snails in river networks under different scenarios of climate change and dam operations in the western United States Related Gap: Actual Project Unidentified - Input Requested Purpose: Predicting the spread and establishment of invasive species in river ecosystems under climate change Project Management: N. LeRoy Poff, B. Bledsoe, D. Dean (CSU), J. Friedman, G. Auble, P. Shafroth (USGS), D. Raff (Reclamation), D. Merritt (USFS), D. Lytle (OSU), D. Purkey (SEI)

  37. HANDOUT 3Proposed Projects that wouldfurther Address Gaps

  38. Disclaimers • Proposed project costs and cost-sharing only represents an initial, conceptual collaboration as a starting point for discussions and does not represent a commitment by an agency at this time. • As projects move forward toward implementation; the scope of work, collaborator participation, and project budgets will need further development.

  39. Project III.1 Title: Potential impacts to riparian ecosystems under conditions of elevated CO2 Related Gap: 1.2 (Region-specific Literature Summaries) Purpose: Summarize literature on the potential impacts to riverine/riparian habitats under elevated atmospheric CO2. Project Management: D. Anderson (lead), ~35K (USGS/Reclamation), ~0.25yrs

  40. Project III.2 Title: Archive and Website Enhancements (“Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections”) Related Gap: 2.1 (Downscaled data at finer resolutions (space and/or time) and different variables) Purpose: Expand archive content to include Tmin, Tmax, drought indices; modify website. Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~90K (Reclamation/NOAA), ~0.5yrs

  41. Project III.3 Title: Technology Transfer and Evaluation – GSFlow Related Gap: 4.1 (Climate impact on groundwater and interaction with surface water) Purpose: Implement GSFlow in PN basins where Modflow and PRMS have been implemented; compare results and evaluate tool utility for Reclamation planning under climate change. Project Management: S. Markstrom (lead), ~100K (USGS/Reclamation), ~0.5yrs

  42. Project III.4 Title: Climate change, reservoir management, and the differential success of invasive and native riparian plants Related Gaps: 4.2 (Climate impact on land cover and ecosystems) 5.1 (How to project social responses that constrain operations) Purpose: For focal invasive and threatened taxa, assess projected biological response based on biological response knowledge and projected scenarios of climate and runoff Project Management: P. Shafroth (lead), ~75K/yr (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

  43. Project III.5 Title: Reclamation Collaboration with USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems project in the Upper Gunnison River Basin (GRB) Related Gaps: 4.2 (Climate impact on land cover and ecosystems) Purpose: Design and implement comparative calibration experiments to reveal potential of dynamic parameters and use of MODIS SCA. Project Management: L. Hay (lead), ~100K (USGS/Reclamation), ~1yrs

  44. Project III.6 Title: Sensitivity of Runoff Model Development to Climate Regime and Implications for Application under Climate Change) Related Gaps: 4.5 (Guidance on runoff analysis dependence on method/tool; and method/tool preference) Purpose: Design and implement calibration/validation experiments to reveal relative robustness of model structures when calibrated and applied to different climates. Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~100K (Reclamation/USGS), ~1yr

  45. Project III.7 Title: Significance of Operations Model Uncertainty for Comparative Studies Related Gaps: 7.1 (How to assess and characterize uncertainties by element) Purpose: Utilize results from Monte Carlo analyses already conducted separately on comparative ops. studies to assess implications for assessing study differences. Project Management: L. Brekke (lead), ~15K (Reclamation), ~0.25yrs

  46. Project III.8 Title: Vulnerability of US Water Supply Related Gaps: 4.2, 5.2 (Crop water demand response to climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes), 7.2 (How to how uncertainties interrelate and/or compound across elements) Purpose: Assess vulnerability of water supplies and operations during next 50 years, where available water for diversion would be analyzed using the Statistical Dynamical Ecohydrology Model of Kochendorfer and Ramirez (2008). Project Management: D. Raff (contact; CSU proposal), ~120K (Reclamation), ~2yrs

  47. Project III.9 Title: Assessing Snowpack and Runoff from Colorado’s Headwater Basins Using a Very High Resolution Fully Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Model Related Gap: 2.1, 2.2 (Downscaled data that isn’t based on “stationarity”), 4.2 Purpose: Use regional climate model to reveal role of complex topography, without stationarity Project Management: D. Raff (contact; NCAR proposal), ~150K to 250K (NCAR/Reclamation), ~1 to 2 yrs

  48. Project III.10 Title: Eco-hydrology Impact Analysis Related Gap: 4.2, 7.1, 7.2 Purpose: Examine operations response to climate change given joint changes in land cover and demographics. Design analysis framework to reveal uncertainty sources and propagation. Project Management: D. Raff (contact; CSU proposal), ~120K (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

  49. Project III.11 Title: Predicting Colonization of Reservoir Margins by Invasive Plants Related Gap: 5.1 Purpose: Survey existing populations of invasive species along margins of key reservoirs and develop models predicting future changes from shifts in climate and water demand Project Management: J. Friedman (lead), ~65K/yr (USGS/Reclamation), ~2yrs

  50. Projects III.12 and 13 Potential Reclamation efforts - Concepts only – no projects formulated at this time 12) Region-support and Corporate Knowledge Building: staff training oriented toward contracting technical reps and technical staff 13) Support Decadal Scale Climate Prediction Research: explore role of management agencies to help focus efforts on this topic

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