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GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE as per May 17, 2005 G lobal mobile S uppliers A ssociation gsacom

GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE as per May 17, 2005 G lobal mobile S uppliers A ssociation www. gsacom.com by Peter Reinisch Vice President GSA. Worldwide GSM subscribers counter running 24/7 at www.gsacom.com.

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GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE as per May 17, 2005 G lobal mobile S uppliers A ssociation gsacom

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  1. GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE as per May 17, 2005 Global mobile Suppliers Association www. gsacom.com by Peter Reinisch Vice President GSA Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  2. Worldwide GSM subscribers counter running 24/7 at www.gsacom.com Many of the charts in this document are downloadable by registered site users at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 IMPORTANT NOTE Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  3. Millions Mobile subscriptions 1000 900 800 GSM 700 CDMA 600 500 400 300 Source: EMC 2003 200 100 0 2004 (Feb) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Business fundamentals driving GSM success • Open standardized technology Interoperability, roaming, competition, roadmap security, end-to-end efficiency • Economies of scale • 1.36 billion GSM users currently • GSM has more advanced learning curve • GSM has sustainable cost advantage • Growth • GSM > 80% of all new users Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  4. Mobile technology growth, market share GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  5. Mobile subscribers growth – China, India Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  6. Mobile subscriber growth - Latin and Central America Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  7. Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G - drivers are capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery for revenue growth Expected market share 90% TDMA EDGE EDGE Evolution 3GPP Core Network GPRS GSM WCDMA HSDPA PDC CDMA2000 1x EV/DV 10% cdmaOne CDMA2000 1x CDMA2000 1x EV/DO 2G First Step into 3G 3G phase 1 Evolved 3G Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  8. Performance evolution of cellular technologies Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  9. Practical performance of EDGE and CDMA2000 1X - Observations from a GSM/EDGE and CDMA market • Laptop Browsing ( Downloads) • CDMA – The average download speed was about 50 kbps. • EDGE – The average download speed was about 160 kbps. • Internet Streaming (Live TV) • CDMA – The TV was not playing continuously but with breaks. • EDGE – The TV was playing continuously and smoothly. • Video Streaming on Mobile (Live Videos) • CDMA – not possible at present. • EDGE – A smooth play of movie trailer. Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  10. Performance of WCDMA and EV-DO EVDO WCDMA Wildstrom (columnist) • I found downloads consistently hit speeds at a bit over 300 kilobits per second, at the low end of Verizon's claimed range of 300 to 500 kbps. • No standardized QoS mechanisms • Only best-effort services, e.g. bearers for video telephony or streaming not supported. • Over-dimensioning of 50-150% required for delivery of real time services (e.g. streaming or video-telephony • Typical speed for packet data services are 300-350 kbps in commercial networks (includes reduction from packet overheads) • Standardized QoS mechanisms for conversational, streaming, interactive and background services • WCDMA delivers efficiently virtually any service, including video telephony • QoS management and wideband signal deliver highest spectral and cost- efficiency Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  11. Adoption of different mobile standards • First steps to 3G • 270 commercial GPRS networks • 141 networks deploying GPRS/EDGE • 84 commercial EDGE networks (source: GSA, May 16, 2005) • 121 commercial Cdma2000 1x networks (source: CDG, May 13, 2005) • 3G • WCDMA: 134 licenses awarded • 71 commercial WCDMA networks (source: GSAMay 12, 2005) • 22 commercial CDMA 1x EV-DO networks (source: CDG, May 13, 2005) • Evolved 3G • HSDPA: all WCDMA operators expected to upgrade to HSDPA (SW upgrade to BTS) • CDMA 1x EV-DV: limited industry support Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  12. Data revenue from mobile services Cumulative revenue from mobile data services earned by the 30 leading operators reached USD 10 billion during Q3/2004. Data services revenue is growing on a wide front. Source: Informa Telecoms and Media Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  13. Mobile data subscribers millions Global mobile data subscriber growth Source: Informa Telecoms and Media Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  14. Over 270 operators have launched MMS A dramatic shift towards camera phones in EMEA market in 2004, achieving 56% of the market. During Q3/2004, close to 40 million of 62 million phones shipped (Source: Canalys) i.e. two-thirds, were camera phones. Color screens on over 80% of devices in Europe (compared to 49% in Q3/2003). Almost three quarters of new European mobiles are camera-phones, according to IDC. Camera phones achieved year-on-year growth of over 600% to total 72% of phones sold (compared to 11% in Q3/ 2003). The volume of mega pixel camera phones also began to grow in Q3/2004. Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  15. WCDMA - mature technology globally deployed in commercial service • GSA research to April 12, 2005 confirms: • 134WCDMA licenses in 48 countries • 71commercial WCDMA operators in 31 countries • 6operators at pre-commercial stage • WCDMA subscribers: 24.1 millions* • 166 WCDMA/HSDPA devices models in the market • *(WCMDA subs at March 31, 2005 source Informa Telecoms & Media) Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSA and other qualified site users can downloadthe list of commercial and pre-commercial networks Contained in 3G/ WCDMA Deployments Worldwide - www.gsacom.com Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  16. 166 WCDMA models in the market Subscriber growth is now driven by a wider range of competitive service offerings, a wider variety of terminals in the market, and maturing technology Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  17. WCDMA – 25 device suppliers • Sharp • Siemens • Sierra Wireless • Sony Ericsson • Toshiba • Vodafone (Option Wireless PC card) • ZTE • Amoi • BenQ • Fujitsu • Hisense • HTC • Huawei • LG • Mitsubishi • Motorola • NEC • Nokia • Novatel Wireless • NTT DoCoMo (Raku Raku) • Panasonic • Pantech • Samsung • Sanyo • Seiko Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  18. EDGE - strong take up globally • 141 operators in 79 countries are deploying EDGE • 84 commercial networks in 52 countries now on all continents Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  19. EDGE devices shipping or announced • 113 GSM/EDGE devices are in the market (May 1, 2005) • EDGE is standard • in most new data- • enabled phones • 21 suppliers are in • the market Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  20. GSM Operators path to 3G – combining EDGE & WCDMA • EDGE (Enhanced GPRS) uses existing spectrum and sites • Incremental investment for triple GPRS data rates, more voice capacity • Natural evolution for all GSM operators - fastest path to 3G • WCDMA in new IMT 2000 spectrum for highest rate 3G services/applications e.g. video calls • WCDMA leverages GSM scale plus Japan/Korea markets for global service • Gradual investment; step-by-step evolution; builds on existing applications/service portfolios • GSM/EDGE/WCDMA for simple service migration, similar user experience, service continuity, roaming; high investment re-usability • Integrated EDGE/WCDMA devices available; EDGE/WCDMA handover is commercial reality complementary proven mature open technologies Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  21. Combined WCDMA-EDGE networks At least 40 operators are delivering 3G services on combined WCDMA-EDGE networks. WCDMA and EDGE are comple-mentary technologies ensuring lower capital cost, optimum flexibility and efficiencies Si. Mobil – Vodafone, Slovenia Swisscom, Switzerland Telenor, Norway T-Mobile, Croatia T-Mobile, Czech T-Mobile, Hungary T-Mobile, USA Telfort, Netherlands TeliaSonera, Denmark TeliaSonera, Finland TeliaSonera, Sweden TIM Hellas, Greece TIM, Italy VIP Net, Croatia AIS, Thailand Ålands Mobiltelefon, Finland Batelco, Bahrain Cellcom, Israel Cingular Wireless, USA CSL, Hong Kong Dialog GSM, Sri Lanka Elisa, Finland EMT, Estonia Eurotel Praha, Czech Eurotel Bratislava, Slovak GPTC, Libya Maxis, Malaysia Mobilkom Austria Mobitel, Bulgaria Mobily, Saudia Arabia MTC Vodafone, Bahrain MTN, South Africa Netcom, Norway Orange, France Orange, Romania Orange Slovensko, Slovak Oskar Mobile, Czech Pannon GSM, Hungary Polkomtel, Poland Rogers Wireless - Fido, Canada Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  22. HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) • HSDPA performance improvements are achieved by: • bringing key functions e.g. scheduling of data packet transmission and processing of retransmissions into the base station – i.e. closer to the air interface • using a short frame length to further accelerate packet scheduling for transmission • employing incremental redundancy for minimizing the air-interface load caused by retransmissions • adopting a new transport channel type - High Speed Downlink Shared Channel (HS-DSCH) to facilitate air interface channel sharing between several users • adapting the modulation scheme and coding according to the quality of the radio link. Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  23. EDGE Evolution - first steps taken PRESS RELEASE March 10th 2005 www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_174.php4 GSA announces its support for the new 3GPP study items on EDGE Evolution. EDGE Evolution is envisaged to bring on average 2 – 3 fold data speeds com- pared to EDGE rates today, higher voice and data capacity and improved spectral efficiency. The first standardization release, 3GPP Release 7, is envisaged to be ready in 2006 • Backed by leading vendors including: • Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens • Supported by leading operators including: • Cingular Wireless, • TeliaSonera • Telecom Italia Mobile Operators have expressed strong interest and need ! Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  24. Openness fuelling market growth and innovation Market take-up Terminal Open & Standardized interfaces Open standards & systems proprietary systems Server Note: conceptual illustration Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  25. Customers want locally relevant applications - enabled only with an open, globally adopted platform Over 4 Million Java-developers • In comparison, there are virtually no local developers for any • single proprietary service standard, and only a maximum of a • few thousands in each globally. • Meeting the evolving consumer demands in all segments with a proprietary platform is not possible in practice • Prohibitive cost and time required to recruit and maintain a proprietary developer community • There are millions of application developers globally, using • OMA - standardized development tools •  This community is able to produce any service that is • demanded from various local consumer segments Over 500 Million Java-enabled GSM terminals Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  26. Service roaming globally possible only with GSM-family • Global average roaming revenue is today 4% • Typically up to 25% of revenues may be contributed from roaming • In the GSM community over 20,000+ roaming agreements are in place • Indirect impact of roaming plays a major role in customer acquisition • Virtually all potential data users require roaming as a basic part of service offering. Only GSM provides automatic roaming facilities globally  Service roaming globally is also required with 3G Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  27. Push-to-talk GSM 10-40 kbps GPRS 30-40 kbps EGPRS 80-160 kbps WCDMA 128-384 kbps HSDPA 1-10 Mbps CDMA2000-EVDO CDMA2000-EVDV CDMA2000 1x Services roadmap Improved performance, decreasing cost of delivery Broadband in wide area 3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth and/or real-time QoS Video sharing Video telephony Real-time IP multimedia and games Multicasting A number of mobile services are bearer independent in nature Multitasking WEB browsing Corporate data access Streaming audio/video MMS picture / video xHTML browsing Application downloading E-mail Presence/location Voice & SMS Typical average bit rates (peak rates higher) Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  28. 3G is relevant today for all markets • Capacity booster; operational and spectrum efficiencies • Higher data speeds; all data services improve with speed  enhances user experience • Revenue growth with new data-enabled services • Key for competitive differentiation • DGE: small upgrade to GPRS, big lift in performance, fast market entry • WCDMA: in new spectrum at 2GHz (IMT-2000 core band) • EDGE + WCDMA complementary and long term • Evolved WCDMA (HSDPA/HSUPA) for mass market mobile IP multimedia Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  29. About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association -representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally GSA is the only representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing together all views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA Objectives • to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets • to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of third-generation (3G) multimedia services GSA Executive Committee in 2005 comprises the leading GSM/EDGE/ WCDMA suppliers: Ericsson, Lucent, Nokia, and Siemens Benefits of membership/join GSA – see www.gsacom.com/about/index.php4 Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

  30. GSM/3G Resources • GSM/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA GMD™Newsletter www.gsacom.com Push to Talk on a Mobile Phone (Opinion Paper) www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Operators Zone for GSM-family operators register at www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Network Update www.gsacom.com Services/market/technology updates www.gsacom.com/gmd/index.php4 WCDMA Databank – deployments, devices www.gsacom.com EDGE Databank – deployments, devices, platforms www.gsacom.com Canto 2005 in St. Kitts

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