Session 4: Regional Assessment Giovanni Savio and Majed Skaini, SD, UN-ESCWA

1. Session 4: Regional Assessment Giovanni Savio and Majed Skaini, SD, UN-ESCWA Seminar on the implementation of SNA 2008 in ESCWA Region Muscat, 23 – 26 May 2010

2. Assessment outcomes on 1993 SNA implementation ESCWA Booklet on National Accounts Major gaps The way forward Plan of presentation

3. Bases for assessment • ESCWA’s Study on National Accounts in the ESCWA Region: Sources and Methods (2010) • Booklet based on questionnaire and “in-house” knowledge: snapshot of situation with reference to 1993 SNA implementation in MCs • Two rounds of the questionnaire • First round: April 2009, replies not satisfactory • Deep discussion during the EGM, co-organized by ESCWA and UNSD, Cairo, May 2009 • Re-design of questionnaire and Second Round, with satisfactory answers

4. The questionnaire (1) • Questionnaire designed to address three main areas: • Compliance with the 1993 SNA; • Sources and methods of NA; and • Scope and coverage of the accounts • Questionnaire divided into five Sections • Part A: general questions on the System followed for compilation, classifications used, release lag, revisions and rebasing policies, obstacles to 1993 SNA full implementation, technical assistance received and staff • Also includes questions on the main aggregates compiled at both current and constant prices, coverage for institutional sectors and specific information on borderline between sectors

5. The questionnaire (2) • Part B and C: contain questions on sources and methods used for current and constant price estimation of GDP from the production, expenditure and income sides. • Though some countries’ replies were not extensive and elaborate, others provided extensive inputs • Overall, the information obtained forms a rich base for a valuable evaluation of the reliability and soundness of NA data • Here the six groups of tables of milestones has been split into a larger number of items in order to get as much information as possible from member countries on the sequence of accounts compiled

6. The questionnaire (3) • Part D investigates the activity coverage of the accounts related to a number of debatable or implementation-sensitive transactions, such as production for own final use, informal production, life and non-life insurance, housing services, own-account fixed capital formation, imputed rents for owner-occupied dwellings, mineral exploration and R&D • Finally, Part E includes ‘Other’ questions on specific aspects: valuation of output, methods for estimation of NPISHs, consumption of fixed capital, FISIM, balancing of NA, SUT, and the level of detail used for dissemination

7. Main results (general overview) • NA are mostly used for governmental budget planning, economic analysis, forecasts and drawing economic policies by decision makers • In most of ESCWA countries, NA are used by the government as a guideline in drawing the 5 year development plan, generating general budget forecasts and predicting future growth rate and investment indicators • Also, and in addition to their use by Ministries of Planning, Central Banks, governmental and international organizations and economic policy makers, they is also widely used by researchers, institutions and universities for economic analysis and other academic purposes

8. Main results (general overview) • All member countries compile ANA and all countries have made some progress in the implementation of 1993 SNA, except Sudan, which so far is yet to make any attempt • Most of the countries have rebased their accounts with base year 2000 or a later year. Two countries still have their current series with base year in the eighties. However, only two countries rebase their data regularly every five years • Most of the countries – 10 out of 14 – have a calendar of release of ANA and most of them – eight out of fourteen – release the preliminary estimates of national accounts within twelve months of completion of the accounting year • Four of these make their first release within six months of the completion of the accounting year

9. Main results (general overview) • The ISIC Rev. 4 is used by 2 countries and the Rev. 3.1 by eight countries. The CPC Rev. 1.1 is followed by six countries, while the Classifications of Individual Consumption by Purpose and Functions of Government are used by 10 and 8 countries respectively • The number of staff of the Departments in charge of NA is generally quite limited, reaching 15 units or more in highly populated countries (Syria, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq and the KSA), while it is below 10 staff members in the other countries of the region • Together with the insufficient coverage of the basic data sources, the lack of staff stands as the main impediment to the 1993 SNA implementation for 9 countries, while 7 countries indicated as one of the main causes the inadequate training of the staff

10. Conceptual compliance

11. Activity coverage in supply-side est.

12. Minimum requirements and milestones

13. Minimum requirements

14. Milestones