School of Athens

2. School of Athens The Disputation of the Sacrament The Parnassus The Cardinal Virtues

3. Welcome to: Critical Thinking & Structured Analysis

4. Real Results

5. Intel Disciplines Open Source Private Sector GEOINT Pubs & Subs Cognition SIGINT Deep Web HUMINT WWW Interagency Pay-for-Service MASINT Levers Operations Intel Disciplines Intel Disciplines Open Source Open Source PNE Academe Levers Cognition Cognition Interagency Operations Fusion Space Intel Disciplines Open Source Interagency Cognition Interpol Operations PSE Levers State DS-INR SOF/SODARS Levers Treasury Interagency Civ Affairs Operations OGA FORMICA DEA/EPIC Other Shooters Justice/FBI Fusion Analysis………… it’s only a model!

6. Admin Notes • Class Hours • Classification Level • Personal & Material Security • No smoking on the lanai • Hip Gedunk Lounge • Plumbing Issues • Civilian Clothes • Obligatory Instructor Introduction

7. Todd the Enfeebled

8. Must improve analysis and analytic methods and practices...through rigorous training in fundamental tradecraft methods throughout an analyst’s career - WMD Commission - National Intelligence Strategy - DIA Strategic Plan - IRTPA…and other studies Defense Intelligence Strategic Analysis Program (DISAP)

9. DISAP* DISAP II (ICAAP) DISAPI DISAP III TIP 13+ exempt • Collaboration • Internal Networking • Problem Solving • DoD & IC Fam • DIA Culture • CTSA • Workplace Quals • IC Partnership • Strategic Thinking • Strat Planning • Advanced Critical Thinking • Advanced Intel Comms • Community Collab * Defense Intelligence Strategic Analyst Program

10. CTSA Course Approach -Decision/ Event Trees -Hypothesis Review - Probability - Ranking - Team A/Team B - What If? -Sorting -Time & Chron • Link -Matrices - ACH • Diagnostics -Issue Dev • Red Team -Adv Intent - Hi-Lo - Creativity Bias & Fallacy Logic Epistemology Science Creative Thinking The Brain

11. The Basic Flow of the Class Building a Foundation Understanding our Fallibility Putting it Together Applying Structure Centrality of Analysis in Intelligence Structured Techniques Capstone The Brain Focus Challenge Quantitative Viz Bias & Fallibility • Issue Development • Diagnostics • Convergent/ Divergent • Pros, Cons & Fixes • ACH • Team A/B • Hi Impact Low Prob • What if? • Red Team • Adversary Intent • Ranking • Subjective Probability • Sorting • Timelines & Chronology • Matrix • Link Analysis • Decision & Event Trees Discussing Knowledge Wrap-up Logic Being Critical & Questioning Analysis as Science? Homework - The 8 Elements of Thought

14. Measures of Effectiveness • Increased awareness of your own and others’ cognitive processes • Developed habits of metacognition, so that you can monitor your own thinking • Insight into where your thinking can go wrong • Awareness of and facility in methods/techniques which facilitate and augment your thinking • Passed tests & quizzes Think differently about your job

15. Grading Scheme Class Participation 60% Attendance/Timeliness 10% EOD Quizzes 10% Test 20%

16. Class ROE • Assumptions • Respect • Learn the lingo. Don’t fear it. • Theory vs Practice • Socratic approach; don’t expect many Answers. • Non-attribution • Critiques are important • Be here and be engaged • Reading prep • Wicked sweet learning toys

17. Why are you in this class? DIA requirement. It is to be endured. I heard it rocks. Shut up and teach. Boondoggle

21. Empirical Contrary Seeming Consistency of Facts Body Language Linguistic Cues Micro-expressions Remembering to the Right; Lying to the Left

22. Seduced by Epistemology A Novel of Edged Weapons, Bared Shoulders, and a Raging Lust for Knowledge Morag Thistledown Knowledge: A PrimerAdventures with SEALs

23. Knowledge That • Minsk is the capital of Belarus • 5 x 5 = 25 • John Gorka plays folk music. • Carrot Top is not funny. • Israel wants a nuke-less Iran. Propositional Knowledge • Knowledge How • To ride a bike • To play a clarinet • To speak English • To play chess • To storm a position Practical Knowledge

24. Come away with…. • Recognition of different “types” of Knowledge • A working definition of Knowledge • Understanding of the main Epistemological “schools”

25. What is Knowledge? • Each group develop a working definition of “Knowledge.” • We’ll reconvene in 30 minutes. Please be prepared to present your answers. Note: There is no “accepted” answer. Philosophers have been paralyzing themselves over this issue for many centuries. Enjoy the exercise.

26. JTB

27. Juxtaposed • Justified • Juridicial • Jumbled • Jape-like • Joint • Journalistic • Judicious • Turbulent • Tenuous • Tawdry • True • Tetative • Tectonic • Tumescent • Temporal • Behavior • Beefcake • Balderdash • Benefit • Boundary • Belief • Braintrust • Bromide

28. Traditional definition: a justified, truebelief • Belief: something we “hold” about the world • True: otherwise we are simply wrong • Justified: the belief isn’t true purely by accident This has the following consequences: • Some of our beliefs are mistaken (false) • There are truths we don’t know • There is some connection/process between what is true and what we believe

29. So, in a structured form- • a person S knows that P, IFF: i. P is true,      ii. S believes that P, and       iii. S is justified in believing that P

30. Justified Belief Foundationalism Reliablism K Coherentism Coherence Pragmatic Socio-Contextual Correspondence True

31. -isms • Empiricism • Tabula Rasa – knowledge a function of sensory experience • To be is to be perceived • Rationalism • Intuition and induction, innate knowledge and concepts • Sense may “catalyze” the revelation of grander innate ideas • Logic, mathematics, geometric shapes, deep grammar • Skepticism • We can know nothing for certain • BIV Scenario, Matrix, Evil Demon, “Simulation Argument”

33. The Thunder of Logic Dominate Your Foes with Freakish Syllogistic Skills

34. How important is Logic, to an analyst? Critical Necessary Useful Somewhat Helpful Useless

35. Logic: The Objectives • Not to induce panic & anxiety • Familiarity with the basic concepts and lexicon • Argument • Types of Reasoning • Rules of Inference • Understand the foundation of hypothesis testing • Exposure to symbols

36. Tell Me Something New If the sky is blue, the sun is shining. The sky is blue.  ?

37. Henry Rollins is angry. Gene Kelley is a dancer. Sears’ hair is not gray; it is “gunmetal.” A boomslang is a kind of snake. Butter knives are dull and blunt. If a radio station plays whiny music, it is bad. BBC 2 Radio plays quite a lot of James Blount music James Blount sings whiny, horrible ballads.

38. Logics to Astound & Bewilder