1 / 50

Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation

Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation. Jean-Marc Faurès Land and Water Division FAO 19 th January 2009 ADB-IWMI-FAO workshop on Trends and Transitions in Asian Irrigation Prospects for the Future, Bangkok, 19-21 January 2009. Trends and drivers. Demography and health Governance

Download Presentation

Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation Jean-Marc Faurès Land and Water Division FAO 19th January 2009 ADB-IWMI-FAO workshop on Trends and Transitions in Asian Irrigation Prospects for the Future, Bangkok, 19-21 January 2009.

  2. Trends and drivers • Demography and health • Governance • Economic growth, globalisation and the role of agriculture • Irrigation expansion and agricultural production • Water scarcity • Climate change • Emerging trends • Bioenergy • Food crisis • Financial and economic crisis

  3. Demography

  4. Demography • Large population increase foreseen, but overall reduction in population growth rate • Urbanisation • Changes in diet preferences

  5. Population growth 2009 Percentage per annum

  6. 2006 Urban and rural population (millions) Southern Eastern Southeastern Western

  7. Urbanisation • Increased role of commercial chains, including supermarkets • Reduced rural labour • Change in diets • Increased concern for food quality standards

  8. Changing diets

  9. Changing diets

  10. Governance

  11. Governance • Decentralisation • Advances in democracy • Public participation • Government withdrawal from operational functions • Opening towards market economy • IWRM ? • Irrigation management transfer ?

  12. Economic growth, globalisation and the role of agriculture

  13. Growth and Globalisation • Economic growth in Asia has been rapid over the past decades, even including the impact of the 1997 financial crisis. • Domestic and international markets are becoming more integrated. • International agricultural trade increased from 47% of agricultural GDP in 1981-83 to 89% in 2001-03. • Results: • decrease in price of main commodities • increased dependency on regional and global economy • increased competition, new opportunities

  14. Agriculture in percentage of GDP

  15. Agriculture remains a major sector of most Asian economies • Its health is crucial for increasing economy–wide productivity • It also serves as a buffer and safety net by providing employment in the face of large economic shock • It is still growing in absolute size. • Agriculture is still important, it is just that there are now many more competing sectors and budget priorities. • Large differences exist between countries in the region that affect agricultural policies

  16. Irrigation expansion and agricultural production

  17. Irrigation expansion 1950-2000 • Irrigation key element of Green Revolution “tripod”: water, fertilizers, seeds: • Need for rapid food production increase • Massive investments in irrigation (particularly in Asia) • Investment peak in late 1970s • Focus on large scale, public, surface irrigation schemes

  18. Population, irrigation and agricultural production

  19. Projections for future investments in irrigation • Irrigation growth rate will be slower than in the past: 0,6% p.a. against 1.6% in the past • Irrigation still important in the world food system, increasing to 45 percent of total food production in 2030 • Irrigation will increasingly serve a market-oriented agriculture, progressively focusing on higher value crops Source: FAO: Agriculture towards 2030

  20. Change in cropping patterns in China

  21. Evolution of public irrigation Source: Comprehensive assessment, adapted from Barker and Molle 2004.

  22. Yield - rice Japan Vietnam China Indonesia Asia Laos

  23. Land and water scarcity

  24. Increased water withdrawal

  25. Increasing water scarcity

  26. Increasing water scarcity

  27. Increasing water-related conflicts Source: Le Huu Ti, ESCAP

  28. The groundwater revolution

  29. Climate change

  30. Climate change: impact on runoff

  31. Climate change impacts • Irrigated agriculture • Glacier melting large systems (Ganges, Bramaputra, etc.) • Deltas: sea level rise • Arid areas: reduced runoff • Rainfed agriculture • low latitude: temperature stress • Arid areas: increased rainfall variability

  32. Emerging trends: Bioenergy

  33. Trends in biofuel production Source: Earth Trends 2007 Earth Policy Institute

  34. Biofuel and water use (2005) Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

  35. Projections for water demand - 2030 Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

  36. Source: FAO/OECD, 2008

  37. Rainfed agriculture: Pressure on land resources Irrigated agriculture: Pressure on water resources Impacts of biofuels

  38. Source: McKinley

  39. Emerging trends: Food prices

  40. The 2007-2008 food crisis • Strong demand for food and feed • Reduced stocks and tighter markets • Incentives for biofuel • Speculations •  end of 30 years of decreasing food prices • Impacts the poor food purchasers most • Impact farmers: +/-

  41. Food prices: “volatility ?”

  42. Emerging trend: land acquisition ?

  43. Emerging trends: Financial and economic crisis

  44. ??

  45. Conclusion: some challenges and opportunities for irrigation • Rising demand for water, food, fibres and energy: • Population growth • Urbanisation and changes in diet preferences • Rural poverty and lack of access to water • Aging water infrastructure, less financial resources • Demand for better water service • Reduced labour in many countries • Adapting to volatile food prices, tighter commodity markets • Increased competition for water • Increasing concern for environmental sustainability • Climate change

  46. “Adapting yesterday’s irrigation systems to tomorrow’s needs”

  47. Thank you

More Related