Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Post Gu 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 17th August , 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Shabelle Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • Field Access and Coverage in Shabelle Regions: • Food Security Field analyst in Lower Shabelle travelled to all districts for assessment of crop, livestock and market conditions. • Food security Field analyst Middle Shabelle covered rural areas of Balad, Jowhar, Cadale and Aden Yabal districts.

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income: • Riverine livelihood: • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment. • Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase. • Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land • Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle) • Agropastoral Maize/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase. • Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase. • Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland Pastoral and South east Pastoralists) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase • Primary livelihood asset of poor: Camel, Sh/goat (SIP), cattle (SEP),

4. Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall • Overall statement: Performance of Gu rains was poor in all livelihoods. • Start of the season: started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in most livelihoods of the Shabelle regions and ended in 3rd of May 2011. • Temporal and spatial distribution: localized and poor distribution with low intensity. • Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall(April-May) of 0-20% of normal in most areas of Shabelle regions. • Certain area in Lower shabelle (South of Brava & Wanleweyn) indicate 20-40% of normal • Localized areas of Middle Shabelle bordering with Hiran indicate 120-140% of normal. • Hagaa Rains: Along coastal areas of main Lower Shabelle (Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwarey, Marka, Qoryoley and Afgoye) average Hagaa started in late July 2011 Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions

6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • High political tension among TFG and religious groups in Mogadishu affected Shabelle valley • Increasing threats and limited humanitarian space • The development of security situation of Shabelle valley is uncertain • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • New IDP camp in km 50 managed by Al-Shabab • Displaced people in the corridor between Mogadishu and Balad as well as Mogadishu and Afgoye • Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu • Restriction of humanitarian intervention - negative impact on access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers)

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates

8. AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)

9. AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)

10. AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions - Combined

11. Agriculture Regional Contribution of Gu 2011 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

12. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates

13. AgricultureGu 2011 Off-season Maize Estimates(Mt)– Lower Shabelle

14. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Good Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011 Good Maize Performance. Idow gudow K/warey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011 Poor Maize Crop. Malayley,Qorioley,Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011 Good Rice Crop. Barey, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

15. Agriculture • Gu 2011Local Cereal Flow: • Shabelle regions supply limited maize to Banadir (Mogadishu), south Galgadud (El Dheer) and Hiran. • Middle Shabelle supplies some amount of sorghum to Mogadishu. • Lower Shabelle gets limited amount of sorghum from Bay.

16. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Shabelle regions Trends in Maize Prices: (Jowhar) • Factors influencing maize prices: • Poor maize crop production in all livelihoods. It is observed a decreasing trend of maize prices between June and July 2011 due to supply from the current Gu harvest. • Low maize supply • High demand for maize due to crop production failure in southern Somalia Trends in Maize Prices: (Merka, Afgoye and Qorioley)

17. Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Middle Shabelle (Jowhar) • Factors Influencing Wage Labour Availability: • Stable wage rates in M. Shabelle due to on-going cash-crop activities in the riverine • Low agricultural activities during Gu season due to poor seasonal performance • Low labour demand • Increase of labour wages in Lower Shabelle in July due to Gu harvest and Hagaa planting • Civil insecurity Lower Shabelle

18. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Shabelle Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – M. Shabelle – Jowhar market (5 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 7kg in Jul’10) • Factor Affecting ToT decline: • Significant increase in Maize prices Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – L. Shabelle – Afgoye, Merka and Qoryoley markets (4 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 8kg in Jul’10)

19. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Gu 2011 • Water availability is poor to average in most agropastoral livelihoods of the two regions • Average pasture condition in riverine and Wanlaweyn. Currently, coastal areas of Lower Shabelle have average pasture condition as a result of on-going Hagaa rains. However, poor pasture in key pastoral and other agropastoral areas of Shabelle regions. • Average body condition for camel and poor for sheep/goats and cattle • Normal livestock migration for both regions • Average milk production for camel and slight decline of milk prices yet higher than in the last year

20. Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

21. Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Lower Shabelle Livestock Trends in Goat Prices and Terms of Trade - L.Shabelle • Factors Influencing Local Goat prices: • High supply of livestock into markets • Poor livestock body condition Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Middle Shabelle

22. Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – Shabelle Regions Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (46 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 138 kg/head in Jul ‘10) • Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): • High cereal prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body condition and increased supply on markets. Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade Middle Shabelle (57 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 115 kg/head in Jul ’10)

23. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Shabelle regions Mixed Livestock Body Condition Poor Cattle Body Condition. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011. Poor Cattle Body Condition. Kurtunwarey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011. Poor Cattle Body Condition. Cadale, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011

24. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) • Poor crop production and shifting to imported cereals • Increased fuel prices • Increased prices on international markets • Reduced number of vessels due to piracy threat • Persistent fighting in Mogadishu • Disruption of main distribution markets in Mogadishu following the conflict.

25. Nutrition: Summary of Nutrition Findings

26. Shabelle Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010) • Aggravating factors: • Limited food production and high price of food resulting from the drought • Increased population displacements • Limited humanitarian space for interventions • Outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera, measles and whooping cough reported in the region • Very limited access to health centers in the area • Mitigating factor: • Access to humanitarian interventions in Mogadishu • Social support

27. SHABELLESummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 Key IPC Reference Outcomes Urban Population: Middle Shabelle:100% Pand 25% of Middle HE; 75% Middle AFLC Lower Shabelle:100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC Rural Population Middle Shabelle • Riverine (50% P Famine; 50% P HE and 100%M HE) • Southern Agropastoral (100% P- Famine; 100%M-HE); • Cowpea (50% P Famine; 50% P - HE and 100% M – HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P-HE; 50%M-AFLC) • Coastal (50%P Famine; 50%P-HE and 100% M HE) Lower Shabelle • Riverine (100% P Famine; 50%M HE; 50% M AFLC M); • Southern Agropastoral (Wanlaweyne 100% P in HE; 50%M AFLC; the rest of the districts are 100% P in Famine; 100% M HE); • Southeast Pastoral (100% P - Famine; 100% M- HE); • Coastal (100% P Famine; 50% M-HE and 50% M AFLC) • Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P Famine; 50% M HE and 50% M AFLC) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day ; in HE face severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day, while those in AFLC lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litresppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litresppp day -human usage only); AFLC 7.5-15 litresppp day, accessed via asset stripping Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference). AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011

28. SHABELLEMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation Aggravating Factors: • Poor crop production (L. Shabelle – 37% PWA; M. Shabelle – 22% PWA) resulting from poor Gu rains in Somalia and upper river catchments, low river levels and poor irrigation infrastructure (mainly in Middle Shabelle) • Lack of cereal stocks (poor and lower middle households) as a result of very low cereal production in Lower Shabelle (Deyr 2010 and Gu 2011) and Middle Shabelle (since Gu 2008) • High influx of livestock from neighboring regions towards riverine areas exerting pressure on the limited pasture resources (particularly L. Shabelle) • Deteriorated livestock (cattle) body condition and limited milk production • Declined cattle herd size in both regions • Increased food prices (local and imported commodities) due to low supply of local cereals • Decrease in livestock prices (30-40% since June ‘10) • High supply of labour in riverine areas leading to the decline in labour wage rates • Weak purchasing power: ToT maize and labour (7 to 3kg/wage); ToT goat and maize (135 to 55kg/head) and ToT cattle to maize (565 to 177kg/head) • Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups in the regions • Limited humanitarian space • High IDP concentration in Balad and Afgoye Corridor Mitigation Factors: • Expected off-season maize production following Hagaa rains in Lower Shabelle to improve local cereal availability • Agricultural labour opportunities from off-season planting in L. Shabelle and cash crop activities in both regions. • Below average (75% of PWA) of sorghum production in main sorghum producing district (Wanlaweyne) of Lower Shabelle • Cash crop production (sesame, cowpea, rice, citrus, vegetables, banana, etc.) • Improved access to Mogadishu (for labour and humanitarian aid) • Social support

29. SHABELLERural Population in Crisis by District

30. SHABELLERural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

31. SHABELLEUrban Population in Crisis

32. The End