1 / 19

Supplement 13: An example of regression analysis

Supplement 13: An example of regression analysis. A test of the relation between fertility rate and mortality rate?. Are mortality and fertility related?.

ingrid-kane
Download Presentation

Supplement 13: An example of regression analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Supplement 13: An example of regression analysis A test of the relation between fertility rate and mortality rate?

  2. Are mortality and fertility related? • Demographers have pointed out that in many cases mortality decline precedes fertility decline, which suggests a causal link from falling mortality to falling fertility. • The model of Barro and Becker (1989) implies falling mortality rates tend to lower the cost of having a surviving child, hence fertility actually increases, not decreases, as mortality declines. (Instead of emphasizing mortality decline, the Barro-Becker framework points to the quantity-quality tradeoff as an explanation for fertility decline: parents choose to have smaller families in order to invest more in the education of each child.) Barro, Robert and Gary S. Becker (1989): “Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,” Econometrica 57(2): 481-501.

  3. Are mortality and fertility related? • Kalemli-Ozcan (2003) argues when mortality is stochastic and parents want to avoid the possibility of ending up with very few (or zero) surviving children, a “precautionary” demand for children arises. • Extending the theoretical model of Barro and Becker (1989), Doepke (2005) predicts a negative relationship between mortality and fertility. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2003) “A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment.” Journal of Development Economics, 70 (1): 103-118 Doepke, Matthias (2005): “Child Mortality and Fertility Decline: Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?” Journal of Population Economics, 18(2): 337-366.

  4. Are income and fertility related? • Burdsall (1988) suggest the so-called Norm curve, which describes fertility as a monotonically declining function of per capita income. Birdsall, N. (1988): “Economic Approaches to Population Growth”, in Handbook of Development Economics, by H. Chenery and T.N. Srinivasan, Eds, Vol. 1, Elsevier: Amsterdam.

  5. Theme of this project • We use fertility data across countries to estimate the relationship between fertility and mortality and per capita income.

  6. Data sources and description • World Development Indicator (WDI) 2002, available from the HKU main library. • Time: year 2000 only. • 172 countries (out of 207) with relevant variables • GDP per capita (in 1995 US$) – a proxy for income per capita. • Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) • Fertility rate (births per woman) • Drop 35 countries: • 32 countries did not report GDP per capita. • Additional 3 countries did not report fertility rate. • Do not consider adult illiteracy rate because substantial number of developed countries (such as UK and US) did not report this variable.

  7. Descriptive statistics: Fertility rate 34.3% countries below replacement fertility rate: (=2.1). Hong Kong

  8. Descriptive statistics: Mortality rate Hong Kong

  9. Descriptive statistics: GDP per capita Hong Kong Luxembourg

  10. Scatter plot: fertility vs. GDP per capita (y) (x)

  11. Scatter plot: fertility vs. mortality (y) (x)

  12. Regression model I: Statistically different from zero at 1% level of significance. Economically, we expect fertility rate to lower by 0.07005 per woman when the per capita income increases by US$1000. Or: fertility rate to lower by 7 per 100 women

  13. Regression model I: Rejects the hypothesis that all coefficients are jointly zero. The explanatory variable (per capita income) explains 22.5% of the variation in fertility rate.

  14. Regression model II: Statistically different from zero at 1% level of significance. Not statistically different from zero even at 10% level of significance. Economically, holding per capita income constant, we expect the fertility rate to rise by 0.0367 per woman when mortality increases by 1 infant death per thousand births. Economically, holding mortality rate constant, we expect fertility rate to lower by 0.00973 per woman when the per capita income increases by US$1000.

  15. Regression model II: Rejects the hypothesis that all coefficients are jointly zero. The explanatory variables together explain 74.2% of the variation in fertility rate.

  16. Regression model III: Statistically different from zero at 1% level of significance. Economically, we expect fertility rate to increase by 0.0382 per womanwhen mortality increases by 1 infant death 1 per 1000 birth.

  17. Regression model III: Rejects the hypothesis that all coefficients are jointly zero. The explanatory variable (per capita income) explains 73.9% of the variation in fertility rate.

  18. Conclusion • Fertility rate is strongly directly related to mortality rate. • When mortality rate is included, the explanatory power of income per capita on fertility rate seems small. • Cautions: • Although the model setup seems to suggest a low mortality rate will cause a low fertility rate. The reverse could be true. Countries with a low fertility rate may spend more on infant survival and hence a low mortality rate. • The true relationship need not be linear, e.g., Strulik and Sikandar (2002). Strulik, Holger and Siddiqui Sikandar (2002): “Tracing the income-fertility nexus: Nonparametric Estimates for a Panel of Countries,” Economics Bulletin, 15 (5): 1-9.

  19. Supplement 13: An example of regression analysis A test of the relation between fertility rate and mortality rate? - END -

More Related