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Linking Mean Circulation Change to Extremes through a Nonlinear Wave Activity Diagnostic

Linking Mean Circulation Change to Extremes through a Nonlinear Wave Activity Diagnostic. Objective Understand the key dynamical processes responsible for the poleward shift of the zonal mean circulation to global warming using a novel, conservative wave activity diagnosis Approach

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Linking Mean Circulation Change to Extremes through a Nonlinear Wave Activity Diagnostic

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  1. Linking Mean Circulation Change to Extremes through a Nonlinear Wave Activity Diagnostic • Objective • Understand the key dynamical processes responsible for the poleward shift of the zonal mean circulation to global warming using a novel, conservative wave activity diagnosis • Approach • Perform idealized dry dynamical core experiments with both full and axisymmetric configurations • Analyze linear wave refractive index using a linearized QG model • Implement a finite-amplitude wave activity budget for large ensemble simulations forced by heating profiles mimicking global warming and El Niño A new conceptual understanding of the atmospheric general circulation response to external climate forcings from the perspective of irreversible PV mixing. • Impact • Found mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is governed by a dynamical system which is fundamentally nonlinear and chaotic • Established a link between the circulation shift and the changing statistics of the Rossby wave breakings, closely related to the distribution of the mid-latitude weather extremes Lu J, L Sun, Y Wu, and G Chen. 2014. “The Role of Subtropical Irreversible PV Mixing in the Zonal Mean Circulation Response to Global Warming-Like Thermal Forcing.” Journal of Climate, early online. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00372.1.

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