Unit II

1. Unit II

2. American Political Culture: Liberty • Personal Liberty -We see it as freedom to • Bill of Rights, 14th Amendment, Civil Rights, liberties

3. American Political Culture: Equality • Political Equality -All are equal under the law • Evolved and still evolving • Women, minorities, etc.

4. Equal Opportunity v. Equal Results • Equality of Opportunity • A view that it is wrong to use race or sex either to discriminate against or give preferential treatment to minorities or women • Equality of Results • A view that government should do everything in its power to guarantee all a standard quality of life

5. AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHICS:WHO ARE WE? • Three major demographic changes in U.S. • Minority Majority • Regional Shifts • Graying of America • Demographics = science of population changes • Gender • Occupation • Race • Religion • social class

7. By 2030, more than half the youth in the U.S. will be of a racial and/or ethnic minority.

10. What will the growth of the Minority Majority mean for politics in the U.S.? “Minority-Majority” emerging

11. America’s Demographics: Who are we? • REGIONAL SHIFTS - Demographics have changed with our mobility - From the Rust Belt…PA, OH, MI to the Sun Belt … South and West – FLORIDA - Dramatic changes in FL & TX from “Frost Belt” - Cause political changes every 10 years after the census - REAPPORTIONMENT of the 435 seats in the House - FL now has 27 House seats, 29 electoral votes!

12. GRAY POWER • “Organized influence exerted by seniors.” • For 1st time in U.S. history, the “senior” segment of the population has become largest segment of the population • Baby boomers now represent 26% of the population and 40% of the economy • They will collect approximately $5 trillion in Social Security benefits! • AARP is the largest special interest group today & possesses the most political clout

17. The Socializationof politics = • The development of traditions, values and ideologies of the American political animal. • HOW is political socialization acquired? • More through formal or informal learning? • Agents of political socialization? • families • mass media • tradition + customs • schools • Which is the primary source?

19. How do we know how America is changing? • POLLING! • Public Opinion: • An aggregate of the individual views, attitudes, and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by a significant proportion of a community Public Opinion Polls are conducted by news organizations, politicians, candidates, interest groups

20. Early 1950’s George Gallup “polled” a microcosm of American political thought – a Sample • the more “random” the better. . • everyone should have a chance of being selected. . • 1,000 to 1,500 usually enough • What is “Stratified Sampling?” • Samples are not perfect – there is a sampling error of about 3-4% in a typical poll

21. Types of Polls • Exit Polls • Questioned right after voting • Indicates who people voted for • Census Tracks/Tracking Polls • Questioning specific groups within the population • Indicates the public’s tendencies across a specific period of time

22. More Types of Polls • Push-“Push polls” AAPOR defines a "push poll" as a form of negative campaigning that is disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are actually political telemarketing – telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions. • Perhaps the most famous use of push polls is in 2000 Republican Primaries, when it was alleged that George W. Bush’s campaign used push polling to torpedo the campaign of Senator John McCain. Voters in SC reportedly were asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" This hypothetical question seemed like a suggestion, although without substance. It was heard by thousands of primary voters. McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bengali girl • Straw-an unofficial vote taken to obtain an indication of the general trend of opinion on a particular issue • Example (RNC 2016 candidates) • Make your own Generator

23. Supporters of polls feel that polls assist politicians in “detecting” public preferences. . .Are there shifts in thinking . . . Should they create possible “shifts” in policy making? • Those who think polls are detractors point out that it has become the issue of selling policy instead of possibly doing what’s right! - avoiding compromises to appease radical shifts. Politicians love polls when they agree with them, they hate them when they disagree. • Bandwagon effects. . .people jump on board. . .instead of being prudent and doing their own research • Elections too often tied to them. . .takes over issue development. • Exit pollcan control elections. • For ex., the Florida debacle in the 2000 election. Gore won Florida, and then lost Florida. . .and then it was too close to call.….. • The questions are the key. . .and a major problem is that too often they are misleading!

24. Determining Poll Legitimacy • Who conducted/sponsored the poll? • Neutral polling organizations would produce the most accurate results • Political parties or other biased organizations would not • How many persons were interviewed? • Minimum 1,000 people • Reduces the margin of error • Who was interviewed? • Many people choose not to participate in polls; this can skew the results • How were the questions worded? • Pollsters must be careful how to ask the question • When was the poll conducted? • Temporary passions can also skew the results • How was the poll conducted? • Phone, Internet, On the street

25. Gallup Poll • About Gallup • Gallup delivers forward-thinking research, analytics, and advice to help leaders solve their most pressing problems. Combining more than 75 years of experience with its global reach, Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of the world's constituents, employees, and customers than any other organization.

29. Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion, Political Socialization & Political Ideology: • Race/Ethnicity: Affiliations are based on freedom-equality issues and socioeconomic conditions • White-Favor Republican • Black-Overwhelmingly favor Democrats • Hispanic • Overwhelmingly favor Democrats • Except Cubans • Asian-relatively neutral

30. Progression of Race and Voting • 15th Amendment (1870) • The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude. • 24th Amendment (1964) • Prohibits a poll tax as qualification to vote • Voting Rights Act (1965) • Prevents states from denying citizens the right to vote based on race. • Helps enforce the 15th Amendment.

31. Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology: • The Gender Gap • Differences in political views and voting behavior of men and women • Men tend to favor • Republicans • Conservatives • Women tend to favor • Democrats • Liberals

32. Differences between Men and Women • Role of Government: Doing too much? • Yes: women (50%); men (66%) • Social Programs: Favor cuts? • Favor: women (47%) men (60%) • Should more be done to expand good, affordable child care, or should it be left to families and individuals? • Do more: women (63%); men (41%) • Should fed government guarantee medical care? • Yes: women (69%) men (58%) • Poverty and homelessness important: • One of most impt probs: wom(63%); men 44% • Should affirmative action be continued or abolished? Abolished: wom 36%, men 52% • Do you think women have equal job opps • No: women 69% men 59%

34. Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology: FAMILY INCOME LEVEL The higher one’s income, the more likely they are to… • Register to vote • Vote • Vote Republican

35. Effect of Education: The more education one has the more likely they will: • Register to vote • Vote • Vote Democrat • (at least in the beginning) • Participate in various methods

36. Group Factors ….. Religion • Jewish persons & Black Protestants are generally the most liberal of all religious groups • Catholics • Liberal EXCEPT on social issues • Protestants • Conservative, particularly in South / Bible Belt • Jews • Liberal Democrats

37. Regional Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology: Urban v. Suburbanv. Rural America • Population Density • The more people living in your area, the more democratic your area tends to be • Higher populated cities tend to benefit more from federal spending • More government services are needed in densely populated areas

38. Region • South • Traditionally votes heavily Republican • Many Christian conservatives • East Coast (Northeast) • Large ethnic mix, heavily unionized, large urban areas • Most liberal region of the country, Democrats • Midwest tends to be a mixture of the two ideologies • Has heavy union activity….Democrats (MI, IL,) • Also has large amount of rural areas/farmers … conservative Republicans (IA, MO…) • West Coast • Traditionally liberal; environmental concerns • Some large urban areas • Getting a bit more of a mixture due to migration patterns

39. Region • Summary of Voting trends by region • Northeast • Democrat • Midwest • Republican • South • Republican • West • Democrat • Swing States • Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

41. 2012 ELECTORAL VOTES Democratic Party - a net loss of six electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 242 Republican Party - a net gain of seven electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 181 Swing states a net loss of one, for a national total of 115.

42. Added slides 37 to 47 to fit in Voting Behavior

43. Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote for the Democratic party? a high income individual a highly educated individual a Protestant an African American a man

44. Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote for the Democratic party? a high income individual a highly educated individual a Protestant an African American a man

45. How has the racial and ethnic composition of voters changed?

46. ODDS AND ENDS 1. Education (more equals higher turnout) 2. Income (higher usually related to turnout) 3. 26th Amendment (1971- age now 18) 4. African-Americans tend to vote less than whites. 5. Puerto Ricans can only vote on Mainland 6. McCain-Feingold and the attempt at Campaign financing reform

47. Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote? A white person with an annual income of $35,000 or higher A Hispanic person with an annual income of $35,000 or less A 21 year old who did not finish high school An felon serving a prison sentence An African American with an annual income of $65,000 or higher

48. Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote? A white person with an annual income of $35,000 or higher A Hispanic person with an annual income of $35,000 or less A 21 year old who did not finish high school An felon serving a prison sentence An African American with an annual income of $65,000 or higher

49. WHY IS VOTER TURNOUT SO LOW Registration Difficulty Extend Voting in Presidential Elections to 2 or 3 days? Reduce Voting Age to 16? (see page 492) Reduce restrictions on convicted felons? Ease absentee voting restrictions? Belief that vote “just doesn’t matter because nothing ever changes”

50. What is the number one reason people in the United States don’t vote? They are too busy. They are satisfied with their lives. They encounter bad weather while trying to vote. They forget. They don’t have transportation to the polling station.