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C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies

Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere. WHMSI III - Asunci ón 2008. C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies para Latinoam érica y el Caribe. Methane load of the atmosphere. The good news: Conservation works!.

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C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies

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  1. Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere WHMSI III - Asunción 2008 C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies para Latinoamérica y el Caribe Methane load of the atmosphere

  2. The good news: Conservation works! …well, does it really? … a matter of time-scale …

  3. Climate Change - how does it affect marine biodiversity? • Increasing ambient and SST • Sea level rise • Acidification, salinity changes and O2 • Alterations in oceanic currents • Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events • (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes) • (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY

  4. Iguazu - WWF Carlos Drews

  5. Proyecciones regionales (IPCC) Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 Figure

  6. A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN

  7. Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU Annual precipitation

  8. Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century, but a bit later. IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007

  9. Cancún - desde 57 km

  10. 2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Cancún - desde 57 km

  11. 2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Yucatán - desde 587 km

  12. Source: Holland & Webster 2007

  13. Impacts of climate change Fish Coral reefs Marine turtles

  14. What are the impacts on fish? Changes in abundance and distribution - Some tropical waters empoverished Implications to food security and coastal economies.

  15. Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3 Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO

  16. 2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3 Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO

  17. Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003 (WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation. Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003.

  18. Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs WWF / Melanie McField WWF / Cat Holloway

  19. 2005 • Hottest year since records (1880) • Record: hurricane frequency (13) and intensity (Wilma) • 50-100% bleaching • Disease followed bleaching • Mortality: US Virgin Islands 52%, T&T 73% in some colonies

  20. The future • Unknown increase in thermal tolerance • “Committed” thermal stress next 20-30 years • Optimistic forecast: low intensity bleaching (> 2oC DHM) every 2 years by 2050s. • Annual severe bleaching if business as usual Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008

  21. More intense storms Observed climate change impacts in Belize Hurricane Iris 2000

  22. Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching Climate change impacts in Belize Southern lagoon reef 1998 Reef death in 1998 (95%)

  23. Flooding with damage to properties Climate change impacts in Belize

  24. The cost of inaction • Overall, in the Caribbean, climate change is predicted to cause an annual loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of increased sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise and loss of species among others, which equates to 13.8% of the total GDP Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

  25. Money talks: how much is a marine turtle worth? CONSUMPTIVE USE NON- CONSUMPTIVE USE A marine turtle is worth more alive than dead By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)

  26. Marine turtle tourism in the Western Hemisphere • Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), … • 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing …

  27. Built Financial Healthy Ecosystem Vital Economy Social Well-Being Natural Political Cultural Social Human Marine turtles: a driver of cash income • Two thirds of countries with developing economies have marine turtles • 175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90 sites in more than 40 countries. • 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 guides, 26.292 visitors) • 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism) • Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle alive than dead

  28. BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism

  29. Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews

  30. Temperature Sex Determination 34oC 32oC 29oC 27oC 25oC Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality

  31. Predicción del porcentaje de sexos en los diferentes puntos Época seca Más machos Más hembras 100 % hembras Desnaturalización de los huevos WWF Carlos Drews Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006

  32. Third generation conservation • Threats are “God given” agents • New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps • Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of non-climate stressors • Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable • Crystal ball driven

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