Impacts of GMO Products on Food Security and Trade 2014 NIAA Annual Conference & NIAA/USAHA

1. Impacts of GMO Products on Food Security and Trade 2014 NIAA Annual Conference & NIAA/USAHA Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis Standards Marty Matlock, PhD, PE, BCEEExecutive Director, Office for SustainabilityProfessor , Biological and Agricultural Engineering DepartmentUniversity of Arkansas

2. Everything is Connected

3. Everything is changing

4. Security is an issue of Trust • Consumer attitudes • Social License – freedom to operate • Criteria for legitimacy • Market competitiveness • Reputational Risks!

5. The Food Supply Chain Processing Production Distribution Safety Security Stability Retail Direct Mktg Wholesale Consumption

6. Trade is a Market Process • Demand for a product drive trade • Trade is tied to safe, secure, and economical supply • Barriers to trade are almost always rooted in economical nationalism • Some barriers are ideological – cannot be broken with facts • Sustainability strategies based on performance data can open markets

7. Where the demand will come from… What we do in the next 10 years will shape Earth and Humanity for the next 100 years Population is about Prosperity! When technology and culture collide technology prevails, culture changes

8. Where the demand will come from… Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

9. Meat Consumption on the Rise

10. Animal Agriculture Benefits • Animal Agriculture accounts for 40% of Ag GDP. • Currently employs 1.3 billion people. • Of the 880 million rural poor people living on less than $1 per day, 70 percent are partially or completely dependent on livestock for their livelihoods and food security. • Global meat production is expected to more than double to 465 million tonnes by 2050. • Global milk production is expected to almost double to 1043 million tonnes by 2050.

11. Environmental Concerns over Animal Agriculture The argument goes something like this: • As the numbers of farm animals reared for meat, egg, and dairy production increase, so do emissions from their production. • By 2050, global farm animal production is expected to double from present levels. • The environmental impacts of animal agriculture require that governments, international organizations, producers, and consumers focus more attention on the role played by meat, egg, and dairy production. • Mitigating and preventing the environmental harms caused by this sector require immediate and substantial changes in regulation, production practices, and consumption patterns. Koneswaran, G., & Nierenberg, D. (2008). Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives, 116(5), 578.

12. Grazing and pasture lands account for the 70% of land used in agricultural production (30% of land on Earth). • Livestock accounts for 8 % of total human water use, largely from irrigation of crops.

13. FAO Recommendations for Animal Agriculture Sustainability Livestock's long shadow (FAO, 2006) Land degradation: Restore damaged land through soil conservation, silvo-pastoralism, better management of grazing systems and protection of sensitive areas. Greenhouse gas emissions: Sustainable intensification of livestock and feed crop production to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation and pasture degradation, improved animal nutrition and manure management to cut methane and nitrogen emissions.

14. FAO Recommendations for Animal Agriculture Sustainability Livestock's long shadow (FAO, 2006) Water pollution: Better management of animal waste in industrial production units, better diets to improve nutrient absorption, improved manure management and better use of processed manure on croplands. Biodiversity loss: As well as implementing the measures above, improve protection of wild areas, maintain connectivity among protected areas, and integrate livestock production and producers into landscape management.

15. Livestock GHG emissions are estimated at 7.1 gigatonnes CO2e per year. This is 14.5 percent of human-induced GHG emissions.

16. Potential GHG emissions reductions from nutrition, manure, and husbandry practices. Increasing forage digestibility and digestible forage intake will generally reduce GHG emissions from rumen fermentation and stored manure. Dietary lipids are effective in reducing enteric CH4 emissions. Supplementation with small amounts of concentrate feed to increase animal productivity

17. Global emissions by sector

18. Sustainable Animal Agriculture • Intensification of animal production is critical: • Preserving land for other life, • Providing critical scale for effective manure management, • Providing effective scale for diet management, • Insuring standardized practices for food safety, quality, and consistency. • Sustainability is about people, planet, and profit. • Unprofitable enterprises are not sustainable and tend create the most problems for people and planet.

19. Life Cycle Assessment Case Study:Carbon Equivalent GHG in Dairy Processing Production Distribution Consumption

21. Pork Supply Chain LCA

22. GHG emissions associated with consumption of pork in the US.

23. It’s All About Improving Feed and Reducing Manure • Improving effective feed utilization (conversion of feed into product) reduces environmental metrics. • Feed mixture optimization is a key element for enhancing sustainability of animal agriculture sustainability: • Nutrient digestibility • Gut function • Immune system

24. Measuring US Soybean Sustainability Metrics

25. Measuring US Corn Sustainability Metrics

26. GMO Eco-Efficiency Over Time Gustafson, D., M. Collins, J. Fry, S. Smith, M. Matlock, D. Zilberman, J. Shryock, M. Doane, and N. Ramsey. 2013. Climate adaptation imperatives: global sustainability trends and eco-efficiency metrics in four major crops–canola, cotton, maize, and soybeans. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 1-18.

27. Productivity, Eco-Efficiency, and Yield Gustafson, D., M. Collins, J. Fry, S. Smith, M. Matlock, D. Zilberman, J. Shryock, M. Doane, and N. Ramsey. 2013. Climate adaptation imperatives: global sustainability trends and eco-efficiency metrics in four major crops–canola, cotton, maize, and soybeans. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 1-18.

28. US Corn Production • In 2013 US produced 10.8 billion bushels (273.8 million metric tons) of corn • Almost 30% of global yield on 20% of corn planted area. • Roughly 7% of production was exported to more than 100 different countries. • Among them, Japan (37%), Mexico (24%), and China (13%) comprise the bulk of U.S. corn destinations.

29. GMO Corn Globally Only 26% of the world's 2009 corn crop was genetically modified, produced predominantly in the US (85%), Canada (84%), Argentina (85%), and South Africa (63%). Europe is largely self-sufficient when it comes to maize production. The EU produce approximately 173 million tonnes of ensilage maize and 56 million tonnes of grain maize in 2009. An additional 10 million tonnes are imported predominantly from Argentina, where large-scale GM maize production is common.

30. US Soybean Production • U.S. soybean farmers exported 1.7 billion bushels of U.S. soy in the 2012-13 marketing year. • The value of these exports set a new record of $28 billion, a 19 percent increase from 2011-2012. • Includes more than 1.3 billion bushels of whole U.S. soybeans, the meal from 454 million bushels of U.S. soybeans and the oil from 186 million bushels. All told, these exports represent 56 percent of U.S. soybean production from last year. • China: 772 million bushels of U.S. soybeans • Mexico: 98 million bushels of U.S. soybean • Japan: 63 million bushels of U.S. soybeans

31. GMO Soybeans Globally Over 75% of the world's 2010 soybean crop was genetically modified, a higher percentage than for any other crop. Each year, EU Member States import ~ 40 million tonnes of soy material, primarily destined for use as cattle, swine, and chicken feed. http://www.gmo-compass.org/

32. European Union GMO Activities GM maize in the EU: The first lines of GM maize were approved in the EU in 1997. Spain became Europe’s first country to put it to use. Today, 79,269 hectares of Spanish maize production, is genetically modified. In addition, production is now taking place to a lesser extent in the Czech Republic, Portugal and Germany. http://www.gmo-compass.org

33. European Union GMO Activities Cultivation 2009: Field area for Bt maize decreases The field area for genetically modified plants in the European Union decreased further in 2009. In France and Germany, national cultivation bans for genetically modified Bt maize (MON810) were enacted in 2009. In the meanwhile, stricter co-existence regulations apply in almost all EU member states. http://www.gmo-compass.org

34. Persistent vs Important Issues From Jason Clay, WWF

35. Meeting Food Needs by 2050 Jason Clay The role of research

36. EU Scientists Call for GMO Policies and Practices for Sustainable Agriculture

37. EU Scientists Call for GMO Policies and Practices for Sustainable Agriculture • There are many constraints in cultivating crops and trees in Europe for which conventional breeding has limited potential to provide adequate solutions, and for which biotechnological tools are already available or in an advanced stage of development. • Current GMO policies in the EU deprive farmers of potential benefits and of the freedom to choose in the 12 countries in which the survey was conducted there are farmers who wish to have the freedom to use the crops they find best suited for their needs, including approved GM crops. • Much public-sector biotechnology research for sustainable agriculture in Europe has been slowed, stopped or moved abroad, because of regulatory hurdles and costs to prevent destruction of field research.

38. Building Trust Through Key Performance Indicators of Sustainable Agriculture Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are things we measure to inform decisions. KPIs should be: • Outcomes Based • Science Driven • Technology Neutral • Transparent