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The Future of Mobile

The Future of Mobile. Eric Brewer BEARS February 11, 2010. Most Successful Technology Ever. 3-4B cellphone users worldwide Vastly outpaces TV, PCs, 1.13 billion phones sold in 2009 36 per second Versus 15 billion shoes per year Versus 0.3 billion PCs 174M were smart phones

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The Future of Mobile

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  1. The Future of Mobile Eric Brewer BEARS February 11, 2010 UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  2. Most Successful Technology Ever • 3-4B cellphone users worldwide • Vastly outpaces TV, PCs, • 1.13 billion phones sold in 2009 • 36 per second • Versus 15 billion shoes per year • Versus 0.3 billion PCs • 174M were smart phones • 15% (up from 12.8% in 2008) • Smart phones will pass PCs in the near future UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  3. What’s in an iPhone? UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  4. What’s in an iPhone (3GS) • 600 MHz ARM processor • About 1200 MIPS for 300mW • 256MB ram, 16 GB flash • Roughly a 1999 Pentium III ~ 1350 MIPS for 37W • PowerVR graphics core • 7M triangles/sec, 250M pixels/sec • Mac OS X • same as Mac, iPad, iPod Touch • Sensors: • Camera, mic, GPS, compass, proximity, ambient light, ambient noise, 3D accelerometer, touchscreen, temperature • WiFi, GSM, Bluetooth, USB UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  5. What’s in an iPhone? (3GS) UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  6. Supercomputer • “Access is the Killer App” • Access to the cloud >> any device • Cellphones are pocket supercomputers • Every search • Image recognition, object recognition: • Red laser • Google Goggles • Sound recognition: dictation, translation… Shazam UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  7. Replace the PC? • Cellphone accessories: • Big screen (~200M sold per year) • … with wireless access (Wireless USB coming) • Keyboard • Or just use voice + supercomputer? • Extra processing and disk space? • Maybe…. Or just use the cloud • Likely want local graphics acceleration • PC as a cellphone accessory • My bet: cellphone wins… maybe it already has UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  8. Developing Regions • Cellphones are everywhere • Many advantages: • Small, portable, with self-contained power • Voice works for all languages (but not text) • Easy to use, culturally accepted • +10% mobile penetration => GDP up 0.8% • Causal, not just correlation • Greatest development project ever? • PCs may not ever get great penetration UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  9. Urban vs. Rural • Value of the cellphone limited by coverage • Even more true with the Cloud • Cellular is an urban phenomenon • Rural areas generally left out • … basestation costs limit rural deployment • This is the real “digital divide” • Not between nations • … but between urban and rural (even in the US) UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  10. CellScope: Cellphone Microscope Dan Fletcher UC Berkeley 10 • Cellphone camera + big lens = microscope • Diagnosis: • Image recognition on the phone? • … in the cloud? • … by a remote expert? • Clinical quality: • Malaria, • TB already verified as detectable UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  11. SmartPhone Diagnostic Device • Idea: collection of very simple sensors that connect to the audio jack • Easy: heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature • Medium: blood oxygen, ECG • Hard: blood pressure • Goal: much cheaper, easy to use diagnostic device • Phone converts raw data into readings • Can also forward raw data over GSM 11 UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  12. Conclusion • Smart phones = • PC + sensors + connectivity + portability • Access is the killer app • The real win is phone+Cloud • Cellphones are transforming development • Driving increased quality of life for the poor • The first high-tech solution to cross over • Rural access must be a priority UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  13. Backup UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  14. Phone Address book Watch Alarm clock Calculator Pager Timer Stopwatch Flashlight MP3 Player Camera USB drive Remote control Voice recorder Radio Video camera Video player TV GPS + Maps Compass Gameboy or PSP What’s in an iPhone? UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

  15. details • 1 GHz Snapdragon ARM • 2000 MIPS at 500mW • 22 M triangles/sec for graphics • iPhone 3GS at 600 MHz = 1200 MIPS • 386DX, 16MHz, 20 MIPS, 1985 • Intel Pentium III, 1,354 MIPS at 500 MHz , 1999, 37W UC Berkeley, BEARS 2010

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