1 / 33

Ben Smit 6 November 2002

Prospects for the World & SA economies. BER presentation to the. Parliamentary Committee on Trade & Industry. Ben Smit 6 November 2002. Outline. Global economic outlook Domestic economic prospects Manufacturing sector survey. Global Economic Outlook. Global economic outlook.

jansena
Download Presentation

Ben Smit 6 November 2002

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Prospects for the World & SA economies BER presentation to the Parliamentary Committee on Trade & Industry Ben Smit 6 November 2002

  2. Outline • Global economic outlook • Domestic economic prospects • Manufacturing sector survey

  3. Global Economic Outlook

  4. Global economic outlook • Initially unexpectedly strong recovery to 2002 and 9/11 slowdown • Industrial recovery has stalled • US consumer confidence declines again

  5. Recovery in the US industrial sector has stalled… Sept 2002 PMI / ISM Oct 2001

  6. US consumer confidence weaker … Sept 2002 Michigansurvey

  7. World economic outlook: the growth numbers (JP Morgan)

  8. Domestic Economic Prospects

  9. Recent SA developments • Growth slowed in 2001 (from 3.4%  2.2%) but economy proved resilient • Real sector activity surprisingly strong in Q3 • Exchange rate relatively stable around R10.50/$ • Inflation rates keep surprising • 400 basis point interest rate increase

  10. Recent SA developments(continued) • From 68 in 02Q2 to 68 in 02Q3 • Manufacturing (69 (69)) • Building (45 (42)) • New vehicles (54 (67)) • Retail (69 (69)) • Wholesale (89 (91))

  11. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index • Consumer sentiment slightly weaker in 2002Q3 • Still holding up relatively well

  12. Purchasing Managers Index October 2002

  13. South Africa’s inflation trend

  14. Current SA conditions:R/$ exchange rate

  15. Outlook: Inflation • Current 11.8 (CPIX), 12.5 (CPI), 15.4 (PPI) • Exchange rate impact to pass • Food prices • Longer term anchors • International competition & low world inflation • Conservative fiscal policy • Inflation targeting Forecast

  16. Outlook: Economic growth • Stable growth since 1994 • Export growth essential • Upswing form 1999 to 2004/5 (?) • Employment growth essential for domestic response Forecast

  17. Outlook: the numbers

  18. Manufacturing Survey

  19. Highlights:Third quarter 2002 • Confidence remains at a high level • Solid increase in domestic sales, better than expected • Export sales edge higher • Decline in stock levels • Small rise in employment, first in 7 years • Rise in actual fixed investment and intentions

  20. Manufacturing TotalBusiness Confidence Index

  21. Domestic sales volumes Expected

  22. Domestic sales volumes(BER survey: 02Q3 compared to 01Q3)

  23. Export sales volumes Expected

  24. Export sales volumes(BER survey: 02Q3 compared to 01Q3)

  25. Current stocks of finished goods

  26. Production volumes Expected

  27. Number of factory workers Expected

  28. Number of factory workers(BER survey: 02Q3 compared to 01Q3)

  29. Fixed Investment Expected

  30. Real fixed investment: 2002Q3(machinery & equipment: 12 month outlook)

  31. Western Cape Expected

  32. Eastern Cape Expected

  33. BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Information that works for You www.ber.sun.ac.za E-mail: hhman@ber.sun.ac.za

More Related