Climate Changes The New World Atmosphere

1. Climate ChangesThe New World Atmosphere Jeff A. Hutton Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Dodge City And a look at the extended outlook

2. Climate Change or Global Warming? "The phrase 'climate change' is growing in preferred use to 'global warming' because it helps convey that there are changes in addition to rising temperatures.“ The National Academies

3. Do You Remember These Days?

4. Where is the water going?

5. Is this a sign of the times?

6. Is this a sign of the times?

7. Is this a sign of the times?

8. Is this a sign of the times?

9. More of this to come?

10. Maybe more of this!

11. Or this!

12. In December 2006…

13. And very recently… 2007 Kathmandu gets first snowfall in 63 years

14. And very recently… Snow falls on Baghdad for first time in 100 years – January 2008

15. Golf anyone?

16. Where did the ice go? Oct 1, 2007

17. Is the climate warming? • Yes! • Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.6°C since the late-19th century. • The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas have cooled over the last century. • The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia. Warming has continued right up to the present, with 2001 being the second warmest year on record after 1998.

19. Dodge City Temperatures

22. Variation in Seasonal Precipitation

25. Can the observed changes be explained by natural variability, including changes in solar output? • Climate is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun • If the sun's energy output changes then so does the climate. • The Earth's orbit around the sun also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (called Milankovitch cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages

26. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the 20th century, either worldwide or on a more regional basis

27. Understanding Forecasting Difficulties The diameter of the Earth is about 7,900 miles Yet our atmosphere is only about 10 miles thick!

28. Weather Is Influenced By: Big Rock Piles! Because of millions of interactions, the weather can change rapidly.

29. Globally – There Are Many Interactions And Circulations

30. What about El Nino and La Nina? • El Nino • Periodic large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeding 0.5oC in the east-central equatorial Pacific • La Nina • Cooling instead of warming • ENSO, or El Nino/Southern Oscillation, contributes about 20 percent to our climate

31. Did El Nino Produce the Wet December of 2006?

32. NO! It was actually a La Nina like response in the presence of an El Nino

33. El Nino or La Nina composite predictions can fail miserably!

34. Outlook made October 18, 2007

35. Observed Ending Dec 31, 2007

36. This Winter’s (2007/2008) Original Outlook

37. Observed so far

38. Estimated Pcpn 11/6/07 to 2/4/08

39. Observed December Precipitation

40. Observed

41. Trying to provide an accurate seasonal, decadal or longer scale outlook is… Just a wild guess!

42. Very SMALL initial changes can make BIG changes in a few days

43. The Outlook for this spring and summer? ?

44. Current Soil Moisture

45. Palmer Drought Index

50. There likely will be a “nasty” upper ridge parked somewhere across the country this summerJust where is the big question