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UDINEE Workshop, Ispra (Italy) December 15 2015

UDINEE Workshop. Presentation of Canadian Urban Flow and Dispersion Modeling System: Application to First Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE). Najat Benbouta, Nils Ek Environmental Emergency Response Section National Prediction Operations

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UDINEE Workshop, Ispra (Italy) December 15 2015

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  1. UDINEE Workshop Presentation of Canadian Urban Flow and Dispersion Modeling System: Application to First Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE) Najat Benbouta, Nils Ek Environmental Emergency Response Section National Prediction Operations Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada This work is funded by the CSSP, Canadian Safety and Security Program, led by Defence Canada. UDINEE Workshop, Ispra (Italy) December 15 2015

  2. Outline • Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) • Mandates and Activities of the Environmental Emergencies Response Section (EERS) • Overview of the Canadian Urban Flow and Dispersion System (CUDM) • Demonstration of CUDM and Impact on Canada’s ability to respond • Application to UDINEE

  3. Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) • National Meteorological Centre for the production of numerical weather prediction (NWP) • 24/7 basis, 365 days / year. Operations are based on a supercomputer infrastructure and telecommunications network • Includes divisions from : • Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) of Environment Canada (EC) • Science and Technology (S&T) of EC • Shared Services (IT) Global (25 km) and Regional (10 km) NWP model grids 5th floor: Research 4th floor: Development 3rd floor: IT 2nd floor: Operations

  4. Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS): Activities • Chernobyl on 26 April 1986 begining of EERS • Versatile Team: Meteorologists, Physical scientists and Computer specialists • Operational Response Events:Chemical, biological ; Radiological, Nuclear; Volcanic ash • Operational, In-house Atmospheric Dispersion Model Suite: Simple Trajectory model, Short-scale (MLCD) to medium and long-scale (MLDPn) Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models, Inverse models • Ongoing Projects: • Aquatic dispersion modelling of oil spills: World Class Oil Spill Response (WCOSR) Regime initiative led by Transport Canada. Development of a first-line 24/7 capacity, of aquatic transport and dispersion model, operated by EERS. Based on CCMEP new suite of high-resolution coupled atmospheric-ocean-ice prediction model. • Urban Dispersion Modelling: September 112001 - CBRNE Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI) followed by Public Safety and Security Program led by Defense Canada. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling (CUDM)

  5. Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS): Mandates Operational Support (24/7) and preparedness. Radiological-nuclear: • Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan FNEP • Specialized capabilities in CBRN urban modeling (Prototype) International mandates: • WMO/IAEA Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) to respond to nuclear emergencies worldwide. • International Civil Aviation Organisation ICAO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) for volcanic ash transport and dispersion modeling. • Operational Support to the Comprehensive Nuclear test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Other Activities: • Domestic Support to EC’s Environmental Emergencies Program (Train Derailment…) • Support to Canadian Food Inspection Agency CFIA (Avian flu…)

  6. CRTI & CSSP ContextCUDM: Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System • Atmospheric transport and dispersion of CBRN agents in dense urban environments identified as a key gap in the CSSP and previously in CRTI created post 9/11 by RDDC. • Existing operational non-urban mesoscale plume models have limitations for emergency response to CBRN events in urban environments. • Under the projects CRTI 02-0093RD and CRTI-07-0196TD, a prototype of the Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System (CUDM) was developed. CUDM System aims to fill this gap and to be used for scenario planning, operational response and post-event analysis.

  7. Partners and Collaborators CRTI & CSSP • Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec • University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario • Research & Development Defence Canada (RDDC), Suffield Project Management:1Pierre Bourgouin Urban Flow Modeling Lead:2Dr. Fue-Sang Lien, 3Dr. Eugene Yee UrbanLS = UrbanLagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model (4Dr. John Wilson) UrbanStream = Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model (2Dr. Fue-Sang Lien) 1EER Section, Meteorological Service of Canada, EC. 2Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc., University of Waterloo 3Defence Research and Development Canada, Suffield. 4J.D. Wilson & Associates, Edmonton, Alberta

  8. CUDM: Current Project CSSP-2013-CP-1013 • The project goal is to transition the flow and atmospheric dispersion modeling in urban environment, towards the status of an operational system; by training, testing, developing product interoperability, and updating Canadian Cities datasets • Final result will be an Integrated transport and dispersion modeling system, for emergency response at scales from urban to global. Operational April 2017 • Demonstration in various tests and exercises 2015 Toronto Pan-Am Games

  9. CUDM System Reg GEM 10km 00,06,12,18Z urbanGEM 2.5km 1.0km 250m urbanProfil Obs urbanProfil 2.5km 1.0km 250m SPI Batch mode & GUI urbanSTREAM CFD model urbanLS dispersion model Products Concentration at ground Concentration at ground Mean Flow at ground Components CUDM: Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System MLDPn +MLCD Operational large & short range dispersion models December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop . Ispra (Italy) P. 9

  10. CUDM: Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling SystemUrban .vs. Non-Urban Montreal SW Wind prevailing Toronto SW Wind prevailing December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop . Ispra (Italy) P. 10

  11. Urban Signature flow Wind from NE and Source is located in the wake of tall building (recirculation) December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop . Ispra (Italy) P. 11

  12. Hypothetical release in Winnipeg December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop . Ispra (Italy) P. 12

  13. CSSP - PCSS Hypothetical release in VancouverCUDM + SPI (in-house tool of visualization and analysis) December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop . Ispra (Italy) P. 13

  14. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Domain: 360 x 320 x 100 Uniform Internal Grid: 320 x 280 x 76 DX = 5m, DY = 5m and DZ~2m Htop = 460 m, Hmax = 151 m Inlet: Power law profile Pwids-15 at 40 m Stretched 20 points of grid outside the internal grid

  15. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE IOP3 14h17 Horizontal Velocity At height of 1.1 m

  16. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE IOP3 14h17 Horizontal Velocity At height of 7.5 m

  17. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE IOP3: 14h17 TKE At height of 9.7 m

  18. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE

  19. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE IOP3: 14h17 Vertical Profile of horizontal velocity S-20 S-18 S-17 S-19 S-15 S-16 S-09 S-07 S-10 S-01 S-08 S-13 S-11 S-14 S-12 S-06 S-03 S-04 S-02 S-05 At 40 m S-15 4.6 m/s .vs. 5.75 m/s Inlet to adjust? or drag coef. in non resolved grid ?

  20. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE S-20 S-18 S-17 S-19 S-15 S-16 S-09 S-07 S-10 S-01 S-08 S-13 S-11 S-14 S-12 S-06 S-03 S-04 S-02 S-05 IOP3: 14h17 Vertical Profile of vertical velocity W 20 10

  21. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet: WS - WD -Time R1: 8.67 - 205.68 - 14h00 R2: 7.45 - 205.85 - 14h20 R3: 6.05 - 204.84 - 14h40 2 3 2 3 1 1 IOP3: Wind Speed profiles Outputs: R1:14h20 R2: 14h40 R3: 15h00 S-20 R1 S-10 R1 S-20 R2 S-10 R2 S-20 R3 S-10 R3

  22. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS – WD - Time IOP3: 8.67 - 205.68 - 14h00 IOP4: 7.09 - 203.18 - 14h00 IOP3 IOP4 IOP4 IOP3 S-20 IOP3 S-10 IOP3 S-20 IOP4 S-10 IOP4 IOPs 3-4 :Wind Speed profiles Outputs at14h20

  23. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS – WD - Time IOP3: 8.67 - 205.68 - 14h00 IOP4: 7.09 - 203.18 - 14h00 IOPs 3-4 :TKE profiles Outputs at 14h20 IOP4 IOP3 S-20 IOP3 S-10 IOP3 S-20 IOP4 S-10 IOP4 IOP3 IOP4

  24. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS - WD - Time IOP5: 7.47 - 148.61 - 20h40 IOP6: 4.66 - 185.11 - 20h40 IOP5 IOP5 IOP6 IOP6 S-20 IOP5 S-10 IOP5 S-20 IOP6 S-10 IOP6 IOPs 5-6 :Wind Speed profiles Outputs at 21h00

  25. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS - WD - Time IOP5: 7.47 - 148.61 - 20h40 IOP6: 4.66 - 185.11 - 20h40 IOP6 IOP5 S-20 IOP5 S-10 IOP5 S-20 IOP6 S-10 IOP6 IOP5 IOPs 5-6 : TKE profiles Outputs at 21h00 IOP6

  26. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS - WD - Time IOP7: 3.18 - 212.20 - 10h20 IOP8: 3.22 - 121.18 - 10h20 IOP9: 5.69 - 157.28 - 10h20 IOP8 IOP9 IOP7 IOP9 IOP8 IOP7 S-20 IOP7 S-10 IOP7 S-20 IOP8 S-10 IOP8 S-20 IOP9 S-10 IOP9 IOPs 7-8-9 :Wind Speed profiles Outputs at 10h40

  27. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Inlet : WS - WD - Time IOP7: 3.18 - 212.20 - 10h20 IOP8: 3.22 - 121.18 - 10h20 IOP9: 5.69 - 157.28 - 10h20 IOP8 IOP7 IOP9 IOP8 IOP9 S-20 IOP7 S-10 IOP7 S-20 IOP8 S-10 IOP8 S-20 IOP9 S-10 IOP9 IOP7 IOPs 7-8-9 :TKE profiles Outputs at 10h40

  28. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE • Urban Lagrangian Stochastic model • uses Thomson's well-mixed 3D model for fully inhomogenous Gaussian turbulence • particle trajectories are calculated using standard Euler integration • concentration at grid points and samplers are estimated with particle residence time • For UDINEE: • Wind and turbulence fields from urbanSTREAM (CFD) • 1.5M Lagrangian particles per emission (e.g. 6M for IOP9.5) • puff volume: cylinder radius 2m, height 1.3m, base 0.1m = 16 m3 • sampler volume 10x10x7 m3 • average Lagrangian particle timestep 0.025s Samplers: 1, 5, 6, 17

  29. Conclusion CSSP-PCSS • Demonstration of Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling prototype • The Work is ongoing to develop the concept of EC EERS as a 24/7 National reach back and resource center for provision of CBRN plume prediction in urban environment. • System was run successfully in prototype mode for Toronto Pan Americans Games, July 2015. • Preliminary results were produced, from Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE). • Looking for Comprehensive Validation of the urban Flow and urban Dispersion Models against observations. • Looking for collaborations in urban modelling dispersion, and the best way to respond in an emergency.

  30. Urban Flow and Dispersion Modeling System: 3D Flow over CN Tower in Toronto • PanAmParaPanAm • 2015, Toronto • Panam 10-26 July • ParaPanam 07-15 August THANK YOU !

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