Module III.1 Climate Information for Risk & Vulnerability Assessments Trainer: [Name]

1. Module III.1Climate Information for Risk & Vulnerability AssessmentsTrainer: [Name]

2. Overview of this module • Relevant climate information sources • Climate change risk and vulnerability • Decisions under uncertainty • Accessing climate information Source: Climate Media Factory, Potsdam

3. What can you expect to learn from this session? Become familiar with relevant climate information sources Understand the concepts of risk & vulnerability and their components Get introduced to ways how to gather the information

4. Climate information sources Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Climate Projections (GCM and RCM) Risk and vulnerability assessments Adaptation options Source: GIZ, 2009 Source: GIZ, 2009 Source: GIZ, 2009 Source: GIZ, 2014 • Direct relevance for NAP process: • Step B: Preparatory elements • Step C: Implementation strategies

5. Risk & vulnerability to climate change • No universally accepted relationship between ‘risk’ & ‘vulnerability to climate change’ available • IPCC AR5 focusses on risks and uses the following definition: • “[The] probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur (p. 1048)” • Results from interaction of three components: • Hazard • Exposure • Vulnerability Source: Climate Media Factory, Potsdam

6. Risk & vulnerability to climate change System of interest • Adaptation measures - - + Sensitivity Coping & adaptive capacity Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk Source: Based on Vulnerability Sourcebook (GIZ, 2014); adapted to IPCC AR5 definition

7. Uncertainty • Climate change in not uncertain • However, different RCP and GCM exist • RCP: • RCP2.6: reduced GHG emissions, low concentrations • RCP4.5 and 6: stabilizing emissions and concentrations • RCP8.5: rapidly increasing emissions, high concentration levels • GCM (e.g. HadCM3, GFDL CM2.X) • The best approach to project climate in the future is to use multi-model ensemble mean values for one or more RCP

8. Decisions under uncertainty future emissions of greenhouse gases impacts arising from climate change other drivers of change: population growth, migration, resource overuse, economic development … course of future climate change projected by climate models Source: Knutti and Sedláček, 2012 Manage uncertainty Do not rely on one climate model only Periodicrevisionof NAP (cf. ThamesEstuary 2100 project)

9. Steps to use relevant climate information 0

10. Approaches to access climate information Online data analysis tools Rapid literature assessment Climate change expertise and institutions

11. Online data analysis tools (examples) Data Distribution Centre (IPCC) http://www.ipcc-data.org/ CI:grasp(BMUB, PIK, GIZ) www.ci-grasp.org

12. Approaches to access climate information Online data analysis tools Rapid literature assessment Climate change expertise and institutions

13. Rapid literature assessment

14. Approaches to access climate information Online data analysis tools Rapid literature assessment Climate change expertise and institutions

15. Climate change expertise and institutions NAP country-level training

16. Sources of information: Gender, vulnerability and risk I Technical Guidelines recognize gender differential needs and impacts under climate change. Need to understand these. Sources of national level gender-related data to understand potentially different vulnerabilities: World Bank Indicators http://data.worldbank.org/indicator UNDP Gender Inequality Index http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/GII OECD Social Institutions and Gender Index http://www.genderindex.org/data • Highlights: discriminatory family code (including inheritance; marriage rules); restricted physical integrity (including gender-based violence); resources and assets access (including land, non-land assets, financial services); son bias; restricted public mobility (including political voice and representation, access to public space). NAP country-level training

17. Sources of information: Gender, vulnerability and risk II Other secondary sources of information to identify climate risk, vulnerability: Health, nutrition, household food security surveys; Key informants in Ministry of Women’s Affairs or gender units and contact points in ministries; NGOs working on gender-related issues. Tools: UNWomen (2015). The Pacific Gender & Climate Change Toolkithttp://bit.ly/29dScW1 CARE (2011). Understanding Vulnerability to Climate Change Insights from Application of CARE’s Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) Methodology http://bit.ly/299f9ws NAP country-level training

18. Exercise: Riskmapping Risk and vulnerability assessments are often comprehensive studies which are not easy to digest. Auxiliary tools like risk maps can increase their practical applicability. As a basis for to determine future adaptation options, you are tasked to identify the regions from the given maps, which are most at risk. Tasks: • In respect to which categories(hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk) do the maps provide information? • What areas or sectors are most at risk of flooding in the area displayed on the map? Agree on the criteriato be applied and visualisethe results.

19. Recap – What have we learned in this session? Know climate information sources relevant for decision making • Representative Concentration Pathways → climate projections → impact and vulnerability assessments → adaptation options Understand the concepts of risk & vulnerability and their relation • Risk components: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability Be aware of causes of uncertainty in future climate information • Unknown emission/ concentration pathways! Know different ways how to access climate information • Online data analysis tools, literature assessment, experts & institutions

20. Imprint Published byDeutsche GesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Climate Policy Support Project Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-565760 Eschborn, GermanyT +49 61 96 79-0F +49 61 96 79-1115 ContactEclimate@giz.deIwww.giz.de/climate ResponsibleMichael Brossmann, GIZ AuthorsStefanie Dümig, Michael Brossmann Contributions byMalte Maaß Photo creditsTitle: Projection (Climate Media Factory, Potsdam), RCPs (Knutti & Sedláček, 2012), CI:grasp (BMUB, PIK, GIZ), Data Distribution Center (IPCC), Climate Information Sources (GIZ, 2009), Climate Change Adaptation Projects (GIZ, 2014: Britta Radike) This presentation is part of a NAP country-level training that has been developed by GIZ on behalf of BMZ and in cooperation with the NAP Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP), in particular UNDP and UNITAR. The training is designed to support countries in setting up a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. It builds on the NAP Technical Guidelines developed by the Least-Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG). You are welcome to use the slides, as long as you do not alter its content or design (including the logos), nor this imprint. If you have any questions regarding the training, please contact Michael Brossmannat GIZ.For questions related to the Technical Guidelines, please refer to the UNFCCC’s NAP Central. As a federally owned enterprise, the Deutsche GesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. GIZ also engages in human resource development, advanced training and dialogue.