Rainfall & Temperature Trends of Pakistan in Climate Chang Scenario

1. Rainfall & Temperature Trends of Pakistan in Climate Chang Scenario Naeem Shah Pakistan Meteorological Department

2. Introduction IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC (2007) : http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html – “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global sea-level.” – “Changes in extremes of temperature are also consistent with warming of the climate” – “Substantial increases are found in heavy precipitation events” Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

3. Climate change: Pakistan’s Perspective • A recent survey of the Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan as the eighth most affected country from climate change, while it only ranks at 129 in greenhouse gas emissions per capita. • Many factors contribute to and compound the impacts of climate change as well as our ability to cope with them. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

4. Temperature Trend PMD observed data shows significant rise in mean temperature from 1998. The mean temperatures have risen at the rate 0.138°C per decade from 1961 to 2011 resulting in total change of 0.70°C, which is significant at 95% level. Warmest year in Pakistan, recorded by PMD is 2007 and second warmest is 2002 in the period aforementioned. There is a drastic rise in temperatures in the last decade. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

5. Rainfall Trend An increasing trend was observed for the annual average rainfall over Pakistan, for the period 1961 – 2011. The increase is 13.9 mm per decade. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

6. Seasonal & annual mean temperature changes The seasonal and annual mean temperature changes in different regions of the country. As can be seen, that greatest increase on seasonal basis in all the regions is in winter. Winter season is taken from December to February (DJF). Pakistan has long duration of summer season so the summer season is taken from May to September (MJJAS). In central and southern parts of the country the increase in mean temperature can be seen and in northern parts of the country there is decrease in summer mean temperatures. This decrease is even more pronounced in extreme north of the country Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

7. Climate change: Pakistan’s Perspective Data collected from 56 meteorological stations in Pakistan shows a sharp rise in temperature during the first decade of the 21st century, except the year 2005, while a rise of four degrees centigrade is expected to occur within the century in the Indus delta region. Impacts included loss of vegetation, deforestation and irregular precipitation Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

8. Climate change: Impact on Pakistan Pakistan lies in a geographical region where temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average, making it an extremely climate sensitive country. • The impacts of climate change felt in Pakistan range from tropical cyclones in the south to glacier retreat in the north. • All the impacts of climate change and their manifestations have been looked into in detail, which also identifies high-risk areas and make recommendations. • “Warmer nights threaten crop production (due to heat stress) by increasing overall water requirements and higher rates of respiration. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

9. Climate change:affects on Pakistan’s crops : • “Winter seasons have shown more of a warming trend compared to the summer seasons. This in turn extends the summer season and shortens the winter season, thereby shortening the kharif crop-growing period.” • Some of the key findings are: changes in thermal regime have occurred and daily temperature variations have increased. The minimum temperature, which is the measure of lowest nighttime temperature, and the maximum temperature, commonly representing the highest daytime temperature, have increased in both summer and winter seasons throughout Pakistan. • “Crops that are expected to undergo changes and have in many cases already shown visible changes include wheat and bananas. Wheat grains do not gain proper size and weight nor do they accumulate optimum starch contents hence reducing the total grain yield. Bananas growing in the present climatic conditions are expected to bear poor fruit and give dwarf yield,”. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

10. Climate change:Sea Level in Pakistan’s • The data collected over five years at Gwadar shows that there is a rising trend in sea level rise and • It is expected that if the thermal regime continued to heat up at the present rate, there would be an average rise of 6mm per annum. • “Impacts of sea level rise are likely to include coastal erosion, wetland and coastal plain flooding, inundation of deltaic plains, salinization of aquifers and soils, and a loss of ecosystem.” Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

11. Climate change:Affects on Pakistan’s mangroves forest Increase in mangrove cover: One of the key findings of the study consisting of hazard maps is the physical spread as measured in hectares of overall mangrove cover. • “The research over a 10-year period of time slot from 2001-2011 comes with an interesting note that total mangroves cover has been increased by approximately 200 hectares in KetiBunder while open canopy mangrove cover has increased by 1,000 hectares. The total mangrove cover in Kharo Chan has grown by about 2,000 hectares”. • The figures on mangrove cover, are of practical value as it is a source of a natural barrier against the storms of recent years. • Major tropical cyclones that have struck Pakistan’s coastal areas are, at least 10 cyclones occurred since 1895. • The deadliest tropical storm in Pakistan’s history hit Karachi coast in December 1965, killing about 10,000 people. Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

12. Climate change:key findings • Highlighting the case of land being lost to sea: “The erosion rate in KharoChann is high with a maximum of 60.7 m/year and mean of 35.2 m/year in area along Sonhri Creek. Apparently, this is not a direct threat but the rate at which we are losing land is alarmingly high. This may result in loss of land worth a lot.” • Community-based Vulnerability Assessment, conducted in Jiwani, Kharo Chan and KetiBunder are: the number of months fishermen spent at sea has decreased, thus shortening the time window within which to match the previous season’s size of catch; decline in the stock of specific species within specific season, growing seasons have altered in both Thatta and Gwadar districts; people have limited access to market and have also experienced losses due to extreme weather conditions Ninth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)". Beijing, China 08-10 April, 2013

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